TEGL23-09.pdf

ETA Advisory File Text

ATTACHMENT I RECOMMENDED TIMELINE FOR THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS DATE ACTION March 2010 ETA regional office s provide technical assistance on strategic planning as requested by state including procedures for negotiating performance goals No later than April 30 2010 States send proposed performance levels to regional office s April 30 2010 States formally submit state plans to ETA including the proposed or final performance levels May 2010 Regional office s review states proposed performance levels and work with states to arrive at mutually agreed upon levels June 2010 Negotiation continues if necessary June 30 2010 Regional Administrators send approval letter to states regarding the final performance levels ETA incorporates final performance levels into state plans December 31 2010 States must notify their Regional Offices by the end of the second quarter if they plan to renegotiate their performance goals and still be included in that Program Year s incentive funds March 31 2011 State may renegotiate their Performance goals through the end of the third quarter. States renegotiating their goals after the end of the second quarter are not eligible for that Program Year s WIA incentive funds. ATTACHMENT II PERFORMANCE GOAL LEVELS ESTABLISHED FOR THE FISCAL YEAR FY 2011 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET JUSTIFICATION AND THE GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE AND RESULTS ACT Results TARGETS Program Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 Entered Employment 68.1 65.5 65.8 66.8 Retention 83.5 81.9 82.1 82.7 Adults Earnings 14 649 13 741 13 848 14 205 Entered Employment 67.6 66.3 66.5 67 Retention 86 84 84.2 85 Dislocated Workers Earnings 16 167 15 542 15 618 15 869 Entered Employment 59.7 56.5 56.9 58.1 Retention 79.6 76.6 77 78.2 Employment Service Earnings 13 067 9 827 10 131 11 178 Entered Employment 48.1 46.2 46.5 47.2 Retention 71.1 69.7 69.9 70.4 Senior Community Service Employment Program SCSEP Earnings 6 795 6 374 6 423 6 589 Entered Employment 80.3 77.2 77.6 78.8 Retention 71.1 69.7 69.9 70.4 National Farmworker Jobs Program NFJP- MSFW Earnings 9 427 8 843 8 911 9 141 Entered Employment 62.6 60.2 60.5 61.4 Retention 76.2 74.7 74.9 75.5 Indian and Native American Program INAP Earnings 9 780 9 174 9 245 9 484 Entered Employment NA 57.3 -- -- Retention NA 78 -- -- Work Incentive Grants WIGs Earnings NA 10 189 -- -- Placement 60.6 58 58.3 59.3 Attainment 53.9 47.9 48.5 50.8 Youth Services Literacy 37.5 28.7 29.5 32.4 Placement 31.4 36 38 40 Attainment 41 baseline TBD TBD YouthBuild Literacy 28 30 32 34 Entered Employment PRI 60 57.7 58 58.9 Retention PRI 66 64.7 64.9 65.4 Earnings PRI 10 002 9 382 9 455 9 699 Recidivism PRI 1 13 22 22 22 Placement 50 47.8 48.5 49.4 Re-integration of Ex-Offenders Recidivism Ages14-17 2 19 16 16 16 - 1 - Results TARGETS Program Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 Recidivism Over 18 2 9 17 17 17 Entered Employment 73.1 67.1 67.4 68.5 Retention 85.7 81.9 82.1 82.7 National Emergency Grants NEGs Earnings 15 108 12 488 12 585 12 910 NA Data not available TBD Baseline data collection underway. Goals to be set upon receipt of complete data results. 1 Goal based on program goal to reduce the recidivism rate by half of the national rate. 2 Baseline data collected from 3 of 15 grantees. Results TARGETS Program Measure 2009 2010 2011 Entered Employment 69 61.9 62.7 Retention 88 83.3 83.9 Trade Adjustment Assistance TAA Earnings 15 117 13 172 13 391 Entered Employment 70.2 66.5 67 Retention 83.2 81.4 85 Earnings 20 566 15 618 15 869 Apprenticeship Wage Gains -- -- -- Timely 1 st Payments 82.9 85.9 86 Detection of Overpayments 52.9 52.8 53.1 Reemployment 56.5 58.6 59.8 Unemployment Insurance UI Timely Status Determinations 84.1 90 90.0 H-1B 98 100 100 Permanent Labor -- 80 81 H-2A 48 53 57 Foreign Labor Certification FLC H-2B 43 65 72 NA Data not available TBD Baseline data collection underway. Goals to be set upon receipt of complete data results. Numerator and denominator of the ratio reflect varying influences in addition to economic conditions such as correction of measurement errors and the phase-in of national directory of new hires which affects the numerator and denominator in opposite directions. - 2 - Performance Measures PY 2001 PY 2002 PY 2003 PY 2004 PY 2005 1 PY 2006 PY 2007 PY 2008 Entered Employment Rate 75.7 75.1 74.3 77.1 77.0 70.2 69.6 68.1 Employment Retention Rate 80.8 82.7 84.5 86.2 82.5 82.4 83.8 83.5 Average Earnings 3 9 950 9 396 10 348 10 773 11 208 11 870 13 575 14 649 Employment and Credential Rate 57.8 61.5 61.8 65.6 67.8 67.6 71.9 54.9 Entered Employment Rate81.6 83.3 81.3 83.7 83.2 78.0 72.5 67.6 Employment Retention Rate87.6 89.2 90.2 91.1 88.1 88.0 87.2 86.0 Average Earnings 3 13 431 12 998 13 803 14 003 14 150 14 265 15 188 16 167 Employment and Credential Rate 2 61.8 65.4 64.6 69.5 71.3 70.8 73.2 71.2 Entered Employment Rate67.0 69.5 70.6 73.6 76.3 76.4 77.5 75.5 Employment Retention Rate78.0 79.5 81.2 82.7 82.6 82.6 85.2 84.9 Average Earnings 3 3 081 2 938 3 167 3 547 3 769 3 765 3 980 4 148 Credential Rate 2 39.9 46.2 47.7 52.0 53.0 54.1 53.6 52.3 Diploma Attainment Rate53.6 63.1 62.6 65.8 63.5 68.5 74.1 74.4 Employment Retention Rate54.2 59.5 61.0 64.8 63.7 70.1 74.1 74.6 Skill Attainment Rate82.9 80.2 83.0 84.4 81.5 83.2 86.1 88.3 Placement in Employment or Education RateNA NA NA NA NA 60.3 62.3 60.6 Attainment of Degree or CertificateNA NA NA NA NA 43.5 56.8 53.9 Literacy and Numeracy GainsNA NA NA NA NA NA 30.4 37.5 Entered Employment RateNA 63.0 61.0 64.0 63.0 60.3 62.0 58.0 Employment Retention RateNA 80.0 80.0 81.0 80.0 77.9 81.0 80.0 Avera ge Earnin gs 5 NA NA NA NA NA 11 747 12 763 15 590 Source WIA State Annual and Wa gner-Pe yser State Quarterl y Reports Notes ATTACHMENT III National Distribution of WIA and Wagner-Peyser Performance Outcomes PY 2001 - PY 2008 Table 1 National Averages of Performance Measure Outcomes WIA Adults WIA Dislocated Worker WIA Older Youth 2 WIA Younger Youth 2 WIA Youth 4 Wagner-Peyser 4 States be gan reportin g against the three Youth Common Performance Measures in PY 2006. 5 Prior to PY 2006 average earnings were not tracked for the Wagner-Peyser program. Estimates of these outcomes were developed from state Workforce Investment Act Standardized Record Data WIASRD file submissions usin g common measures definitions. 1In PY 2005 these programs began reporting common measure which standardized the definitions of performance indicators across these programs. This change in methodology had some impact on performance levels beginning in PY 2005 hence these data are not directly comparable to results of prior years. 2Ten states had a waiver to report on common measures only and did not report on the WIA Adult and Dislocated Worker credential rates or older younger youth measures in PY 2006. 25 states had such a waiver in PY 2007. 3 Average earnings figures for WIA Adult and Dislocated Worker programs for PY2001-2005 are approximations based on Workforce Investment Act Standardized Record Data. Earnings were measured as an earnings change for the WIA Adult program in PY 2001 -2005. This Adult measure changed to average earnings beginning in PY 2006. For the WIA Dislocated Worker program earnings were measured as a wage replacement rate in PY 2001- 2004. In PY 2005 this measure changed to earnings changed for WIA Dislocated Worker program and further changed to average earnings beginning in PY 2006. PY 05 PY 06 PY 07 PY 08 Avg. PY 05 PY 06 PY 07 PY 08 Avg. PY 05 PY 06 PY 07 PY 08 Avg. PY 05 PY 06 PY 07 PY 08 Avg. PY 05 PY 06 PY 07 PY 08 Avg. Entered Employment Rate 89 91 88 89 89 87 88 87 87 87 85 85 85 83 84 69 66 71 65 68 60 59 66 58 61 Employment Retention Rate 1 90 91 93 94 92 88 89 91 92 90 86 87 89 89 88 76 78 80 77 78 72 75 78 75 75 Average Earnings 13 426 14 649 16 199 17 250 15 381 12 390 13 376 14 604 15 745 14 029 11 534 12 502 13 468 14 230 12 933 9 113 9 086 9 696 10 151 9 512 9 017 8 400 9 140 10 151 9 177 Employment and Credential Rate 83 81 81 80 81 78 76 76 75 77 75 71 76 70 73 57 59 59 39 53 50 58 55 29 48 Entered Employment Rate 93 93 93 95 94 91 91 92 92 92 89 89 90 90 90 76 71 74 72 73 69 63 66 65 66 Employment Retention Rate 1 94 95 98 97 96 93 94 96 95 94 92 93 94 94 93 81 84 85 82 83 73 82 81 81 79 Average Earnings 17 283 17 778 17 975 18 904 17 985 16 499 16 792 17 220 17 860 17 093 15 409 15 708 16 225 16 625 15 992 11 656 11 902 12 422 12 693 12 168 10 434 10 911 11 750 11 102 Employment and Credential Rate 86 83 84 83 84 81 79 83 78 80 78 76 79 73 76 60 57 53 42 53 51 50 40 37 44 Entered Employment Rate 79 75 76 89 80 74 73 73 86 77 71 69 71 83 73 57 50 54 64 56 47 44 48 58 49 Employment Retention Rate 88 84 86 93 88 86 83 85 91 86 85 82 83 87 84 76 68 77 80 75 75 63 76 75 72 Entered Employment Rate 92 87 89 97 91 86 83 87 84 85 82 81 83 80 82 64 71 70 56 65 54 64 67 43 57 Employment Retention Rate 90 93 97 94 94 89 89 93 90 90 87 88 89 87 88 74 81 80 71 76 66 75 78 62 70 Credential Rate 78 67 65 68 69 69 62 64 62 64 64 61 61 55 60 40 50 38 29 39 31 42 30 21 31 Skill Attainment Rate 97 93 94 98 96 93 90 93 95 93 89 87 91 90 89 73 70 73 59 69 69 65 69 46 62 Diploma Attainment Rate 90 84 88 85 87 82 80 85 80 82 76 75 80 75 76 49 45 54 44 48 34 35 48 30 37 Retention Rate 86 86 89 85 86 80 81 84 81 81 76 77 79 76 77 59 52 60 58 57 53 42 56 53 51 Participants 90 91 92 89 90 88 88 89 86 88 85 85 86 77 83 73 68 75 74 72 69 59 74 73 69 Employers 89 88 88 91 89 86 85 86 87 86 81 81 82 83 82 65 63 68 70 66 56 54 65 69 61 Table 2 National Distribution of Performance Outcomes Top 10 of States Top 25 of States Top 50 of States Bottom 25 of States Bottom 10 of States WIA Adults WIA Dislocated Workers Wagner-Peyser WIA Older Youth WIA Younger Youth Customer Satisfaction Source WIA State Annual Reports and Wagner-Peyser State Quarterly Report 1 Common Measures performance estimates derived from Workforce Investment Act Standardized Record Data WIASRD StatePY 2002 2PY 2003 2PY 2004 2PY 2005 2PY 2006 PY 2007 PY 2008PY 2002 2PY 2003 2PY 2004 2PY 2005 2PY 2006 PY 2007 PY 2008 Nation 9 396 10 348 10 773 11 208 11 869 13 575 12 576 12 998 13 803 14 003 14 150 14 265 15 188 14 787 A K 10 539 13 506 12 606 13 008 13 595 14 689 16 756 14 675 18 606 16 271 15 907 19 079 19 972 19 972 AL 8 859 11 506 13 094 8 974 9 859 11 092 11 101 10 677 11 642 12 653 12 861 13 471 14 805 14 805 A R 9 077 10 005 12 634 11 861 12 428 12 898 13 717 10 311 11 172 12 518 12 228 13 090 14 428 14 428 A Z 9 434 9 439 9 409 10 330 12 117 12 263 12 831 12 077 13 206 13 533 14 792 15 598 15 010 15 010 C A 10 397 10 483 11 680 12 396 15 732 16 640 16 364 14 945 15 030 15 311 15 726 16 321 16 978 16 978 CO 9 172 11 037 10 512 11 274 11 587 14 286 14 904 13 410 15 269 16 040 15 980 15 282 15 717 15 717 CT 10 243 9 517 9 818 11 004 12 298 11 463 11 810 15 775 14 159 16 193 16 336 16 726 16 945 16 945 DC 8 478 8 971 8 924 10 220 10 830 12 633 12 168 14 209 13 816 15 059 14 027 13 697 15 570 15 570 DE 8 586 9 518 9 272 10 075 10 612 9 915 9 658 12 374 12 058 12 987 12 979 12 906 13 369 13 369 FL 9 690 11 367 12 118 15 108 16 439 19 531 21 583 12 799 13 720 14 140 14 480 15 844 16 887 16 887 G A 8 716 9 102 10 284 10 644 10 573 12 046 11 904 11 151 13 024 13 940 14 244 13 897 14 682 14 682 HI 8 987 9 137 10 087 10 186 10 951 12 451 13 403 12 435 12 434 12 941 12 868 14 640 15 072 15 072 I A 9 049 9 344 9 511 9 598 10 319 10 233 11 324 11 296 11 791 12 230 11 880 12 401 12 856 12 856 ID 9 229 8 921 9 413 10 391 10 232 11 796 12 773 12 940 12 417 13 266 13 094 13 364 14 164 14 164 IL 9 585 9 985 10 198 10 759 11 288 11 802 12 340 13 676 15 034 15 333 15 413 15 828 16 358 16 358 IN 9 348 10 159 10 149 10 370 10 461 11 893 11 274 12 839 14 980 14 189 14 577 13 652 14 753 14 753 KS 8 950 10 105 11 281 11 419 13 451 12 960 15 562 12 294 14 804 15 539 15 621 15 417 15 170 15 170 K Y 9 381 9 612 10 081 10 634 12 179 15 928 16 012 12 066 11 668 11 950 13 296 13 436 13 338 13 338 L A 8 764 9 277 10 063 10 194 12 082 12 537 12 613 11 083 11 227 11 544 12 179 13 459 14 554 14 554 M A 9 515 9 849 10 018 10 581 10 426 10 666 11 122 13 972 14 756 16 643 18 615 17 486 17 513 17 513 MD 10 501 11 431 12 240 12 740 12 096 12 245 14 115 14 307 15 902 17 269 15 919 15 574 15 713 15 713 ME 8 959 9 220 9 312 9 247 9 701 9 989 9 665 10 932 10 760 12 919 11 164 12 285 11 916 11 916 MI 9 096 9 617 9 388 9 651 10 316 10 099 10 939 12 598 12 674 12 336 12 914 12 797 13 768 13 768 MN 9 319 10 035 10 539 10 661 11 203 12 466 12 715 15 434 16 498 16 300 16 143 17 003 17 528 17 528 MO 8 101 8 589 8 658 9 178 9 414 10 466 10 908 12 651 13 165 12 590 13 257 12 830 14 460 14 460 MS 8 313 8 333 8 450 8 871 9 334 9 818 10 999 9 346 9 659 9 663 10 169 10 597 11 148 11 148 MT 8 468 7 936 9 697 9 758 11 398 13 825 13 036 13 127 13 014 13 888 13 964 13 582 17 107 17 107 NC 9 133 9 110 9 669 9 893 10 259 11 634 12 450 11 229 11 858 12 217 13 714 13 487 13 683 13 683 ND 7 801 7 809 8 332 9 447 9 235 10 499 10 543 11 328 10 832 11 164 12 338 12 388 12 042 12 042 NE 7 887 9 387 9 505 9 839 9 924 10 582 10 464 12 647 12 676 13 342 12 919 14 194 14 301 14 301 NH 9 485 11 009 10 544 9 947 9 104 9 211 9 414 13 389 17 111 15 121 17 111 13 159 15 903 15 903 NJ 9 928 10 533 11 209 11 945 11 885 12 177 12 127 13 821 14 189 15 815 16 272 15 706 15 698 15 698 NM 8 946 9 234 10 158 11 007 10 658 11 877 13 685 11 223 11 800 13 315 12 739 14 248 13 914 13 914 N V 9 536 8 537 10 437 9 767 11 025 11 934 13 232 13 575 15 004 14 723 13 727 14 199 15 839 15 839 N Y 10 134 10 969 11 639 12 164 10 841 15 368 16 597 14 815 15 182 15 138 14 716 14 158 17 457 17 457 OH 13 409 14 218 14 221 14 718 14 860 15 040 15 324 15 618 17 021 17 093 17 057 16 744 17 451 17 451 OK 9 311 9 422 10 206 10 452 11 701 11 376 12 113 11 871 12 020 12 842 13 118 12 767 13 569 13 569 OR 8 354 9 323 9 938 9 990 10 053 10 704 11 584 11 719 12 425 12 812 12 919 13 352 13 960 13 960 P A 8 844 9 762 10 184 11 540 12 177 12 469 11 824 12 975 13 741 14 581 15 460 15 142 14 901 14 901 P R 4 629 5 835 7 149 7 158 5 753 6 898 6 384 4 925 5 638 5 847 6 959 6 129 7 740 7 740 RI 9 757 10 608 10 653 10 378 11 213 12 507 11 487 13 161 13 099 13 324 14 691 13 273 13 986 13 986 SC 8 429 8 774 9 071 9 240 9 268 9 416 10 522 10 425 11 107 11 283 12 252 11 749 12 172 12 172 SD 7 402 8 277 8 954 9 978 10 277 10 745 10 121 10 328 11 333 11 348 12 388 12 317 13 193 13 193 TN 9 814 17 178 14 595 11 860 12 692 13 137 13 581 12 118 20 922 16 898 12 586 12 970 13 272 13 272 T X 9 255 10 257 10 591 11 248 11 658 12 243 11 831 12 533 13 407 12 859 13 598 13 893 14 319 14 319 UT 9 540 9 271 9 031 9 029 12 094 12 108 13 320 13 674 13 250 13 794 15 022 15 611 14 457 14 457 VA 7 804 9 812 9 253 9 031 9 168 9 924 10 816 12 371 13 665 13 147 12 651 12 593 13 368 13 368 VT 9 822 9 730 10 427 10 611 12 107 12 647 11 829 13 440 14 285 14 947 13 174 14 969 15 502 15 502 WA 9 710 10 387 10 394 11 100 11 928 12 159 16 881 14 477 15 383 16 022 17 295 18 566 17 928 17 928 WI 7 965 7 918 9 073 9 441 9 432 9 581 10 942 13 116 13 547 13 829 13 836 13 846 14 513 14 513 W V 9 447 7 549 9 378 9 610 10 509 11 246 10 791 13 060 10 641 14 979 12 770 13 318 15 392 15 392 W Y 8 173 9 775 10 724 10 215 13 817 12 907 14 506 12 199 11 121 14 140 11 996 14 492 14 589 14 589 Source Estimates using Workforce Investment Act Standardized Record Data WIASRD PY 2002 - PY 2008 1These estimates do not include NEG-only participants. However they incorporate those who receive both WIA Title 1B and NEG assistance. 2 Average earnings figures from PY 2002 - 2005 are approximations based on Workforce Investment Act Standardized Record Data. Earnings were measured as an earnings change for the WIA Adult and Dislocated Worker programs from PY 2002-2005 before changing to average earnings in PY 2006. ATTACHMENT IV Average Six Months Earnings for WIA Adult and WIA Dislocated Worker Programs 1 WIA Adult Program WIA Dislocated Worker Program Annual Avg. EmploymentEstimated 1 6-Month Avg. EarningsAnnual Avg. EmploymentEstimated 1 6-Month Avg. EarningsAnnual Avg. EmploymentEstimated 1 6-Month Avg. EarningsAnnual Avg. EmploymentEstimated 1 6-Month Avg. EarningsAnnual Avg. EmploymentEstimated 1 6-Month Avg. EarningsAnnual Avg. EmploymentEstimated 1 6-Month Avg. Earnings US 2 107 792 549 18 754109 233 923 19 567111 361 684 20 253134 870 635 19 748136 382 469 20 613134 805 659 22 782 AK 215 626 18 252220 849 18 853226 441 19 409 307 637 20 875310 810 21 986315 285 22 903 AL 1 483 039 15 7841 509 246 16 4081 548 068 17 0041 928 281 18 1021 952 091 18 7461 936 489 19 367 AR 930 765 14 247942 044 14 901957 385 15 389 1 167 925 16 1951 173 852 17 0591 172 208 17 460 AZ 1 902 998 17 3011 980 818 18 1042 107 545 18 853 2 614 344 20 0102 647 691 20 7762 583 215 21 259 CA 12 447 085 20 93212 609 942 22 02212 877 981 22 842 15 503 144 24 17315 640 575 25 26915 494 915 25 744 CO 1 776 722 19 4451 800 646 20 1031 843 544 20 796 2 242 012 21 7532 292 630 22 6982 310 865 23 307 CT 1 390 345 24 4671 398 093 25 8151 409 194 26 839 1 672 109 27 4071 686 043 29 0151 687 902 29 198 DC 421 101 28 038429 176 29 589435 674 30 799 671 143 35 075678 119 36 725685 069 38 259 DE 347 500 20 442356 173 21 171361 184 22 296 422 187 23 142423 412 23 654423 083 23 785 FL 6 213 122 16 4576 423 693 17 2196 694 864 18 048 7 952 023 19 2427 945 162 19 8737 666 374 20 284 GA 3 156 763 18 4323 206 888 19 1233 288 867 19 757 4 024 699 20 1854 077 184 21 0894 031 467 21 293 HI 454 089 15 987468 748 16 792487 265 17 282 618 178 18 899625 862 19 733619 703 20 338 IA 1 177 501 15 1101 195 269 15 8381 218 487 16 326 1 470 742 17 1601 485 627 17 8691 490 575 18 482 ID 468 484 14 136482 745 14 713505 098 15 220 643 671 16 290660 683 16 772653 108 16 949 IL 4 887 063 20 2874 895 801 21 1594 942 881 21 926 5 821 022 22 8255 869 157 23 8435 841 692 24 360 IN 2 427 271 16 6972 451 737 17 3642 476 047 17 732 2 892 419 18 2772 905 725 18 764 2 872 442 19 202 KS 1 048 871 15 8971 058 858 16 5061 067 241 17 132 1 327 677 17 8481 356 966 18 5221 366 878 19 089 KY 1 423 208 15 8291 439 029 16 4621 464 009 16 8681 779 202 17 6001 801 907 18 2401 791 017 18 717 LA 1 493 180 15 3071 500 416 15 8611 483 085 16 759 1 807 563 18 3021 868 986 19 1151 890 007 20 191 MA 2 739 212 23 2852 739 861 24 6142 758 287 25 213 3 194 914 26 2173 234 357 27 6223 245 983 28 373 MD 1 983 840 19 5782 014 285 20 5062 048 799 21 390 2 530 011 23 0812 547 351 24 1212 537 752 24 768 ME 492 329 15 115497 523 15 697495 573 16 052 598 525 16 897602 321 17 565602 074 18 159 MI 3 679 892 19 7423 665 091 20 2023 664 372 20 562 4 235 650 21 0794 179 122 21 6794 070 914 22 123 MN 2 206 420 19 3472 230 302 20 2902 266 499 20 483 2 670 222 21 0932 687 482 22 1882 679 527 22 913 MO 2 200 623 16 9722 213 813 17 5122 247 382 18 102 2 699 860 18 5712 719 380 19 3022 715 183 20 181 MS 864 109 13 569871 265 14 016877 853 14 600 1 122 474 15 5971 135 336 16 1461 131 096 16 754 MT 314 240 12 830323 727 13 305334 143 13 968 426 182 15 298436 656 16 112437 591 16 653 NC 3 093 372 16 6573 141 074 17 3173 208 940 17 8823 965 479 18 7194 062 955 19 4554 043 486 19 870 ND 251 672 13 599258 025 14 303264 609 14 789 335 718 15 658341 705 16 543350 440 17 538 NE 724 281 14 962730 413 15 527739 567 16 002 902 383 16 907916 580 17 619922 929 18 122 NH 520 458 18 843529 498 19 771536 157 20 512 627 371 21 224630 204 21 932628 763 22 456 NJ 3 262 121 22 9903 274 157 23 8173 308 847 24 560 3 951 210 25 8223 961 341 26 9273 934 789 27 640 NM 570 868 14 470582 169 15 045597 145 15 672 807 063 17 284 821 484 18 190825 736 18 955 NV 949 334 17 1601 010 267 18 0551 075 087 18 941 1 271 634 20 0351 284 502 21 0751 252 987 21 492 NY 6 803 570 23 9516 854 296 25 3976 928 662 26 489 8 429 519 27 7398 554 012 29 7208 608 351 30 144 OH 4 524 065 17 3034 533 380 17 9644 555 293 18 415 5 314 572 19 2845 306 812 17 7465 235 972 20 392 OK 1 120 680 14 6321 130 802 15 2251 158 861 15 779 1 507 196 17 0111 534 802 19 9591 550 489 18 642 OR 1 314 854 16 9091 344 751 17 5131 386 917 18 115 1 699 932 19 0391 727 886 19 7851 713 764 20 250 PA 4 753 844 18 2414 781 005 19 0334 837 168 19 632 5 607 139 20 6755 652 547 21 6205 658 771 22 191 PR 726 994 10 159743 857 10 435750 665 10 7621 036 802 11 8541 016 362 12 3711 001 120 12 777 RI 407 764 17 432412 149 17 984414 842 18 533 480 570 20 227480 132 20 823469 701 21 515 SC 1 454 329 15 1211 476 668 15 6541 500 676 16 210 1 855 842 17 1411 891 255 17 6971 876 081 18 126 SD 295 714 13 376300 583 13 896306 681 14 328 383 876 15 146392 060 15 828397 108 16 411 TN 2 204 879 16 7482 246 911 17 4292 286 964 17 930 2 728 694 18 7822 745 099 19 5412 721 990 19 998 TX 7 587 587 18 7217 695 635 19 5507 926 772 20 440 9 922 313 21 22910 231 906 22 34810 452 907 22 970 UT 857 043 15 261884 984 15 795925 300 16 414 1 170 587 17 5651 219 207 18 5271 221 052 18 990 VA 2 788 213 19 0712 859 017 20 0582 931 169 20 969 3 636 417 22 0253 672 958 22 9983 665 654 23 621 VT 244 595 15 786248 057 16 361249 757 16 824 303 205 17 771303 448 18 478302 627 19 164 WA 2 157 934 19 3372 196 183 19 4092 264 776 20 113 2 850 073 21 4492 925 908 22 5112 950 773 23 285 WI 2 307 228 16 4992 335 623 17 1942 365 071 17 558 2 767 141 18 4112 780 924 19 0252 772 889 19 560 WV 542 349 14 179550 559 14 788558 749 15 272 705 189 16 364706 172 17 053709 657 17 994 WY 183 403 14 574187 822 15 329195 241 16 310 266 894 18 331277 721 19 627286 333 20 744 Estimates of Six Months Average Earnings by State Using BLS-QCEW Program Data ATTACHMENT V Data Source BLS Quarterl y Census of Emplo yment and Wa ges Annual Avera ges 2010. http www.bls. gov cew 1 Average Annual Wages which are used to compute the Estimated 6 Months Average Earnings are obtained through taking Total Annual Wages and dividing them by the Average Annual Employment 2 Aggregated National data incorporates all 50 States as well as territoriesCY 2008 CY 2003 CY 2004 CY 2005 CY 2006 CY 2007 ATTACHMENT VI MULTIVARIATE ADJUSTMENT FACTORS Economic and Demographic Variables Relationship between Performance Outcomes and Unemployment Rates and Customer Characteristics Effects on Performance of a O ne Percentage Point Increase in Unemployment Rate Percent female Percent Age 55 or Older Percent Not High School Graduate Percent Low Income Percent Disabled Adult Entered Employment -1.25 -0.004 -0.079 -0.062 -0.037 -0.102 Retention -0.7 0.024 -0.027 -0.051 -0.041 -0.034 Earnings -288 -21 -4 -22 -23 -14 Credentials -1.2 -0.015 -0.037 -0.056 -0.013 -0.039 Dislocated Worker Entered Employment -0.7 -0.003 -0.099 -0.035 --- -0.053 Retention -0.9 0.008 -0.029 -0.023 --- -0.027 Earnings -226 -40 -11 -28 --- -15 Credentials 0 -0.026 -0.038 -0.043 --- -0.020 Older Youth Age 19 Basic Skill Deficiency Entered Employment -0.5 -0.019 -0.005 -0.112 -0.016 -0.089 Retention -0.7 0 0 -0.074 -0.014 0 Earnings -122 -9 -6 -13 -6 -13 Credentials 0 0.024 0 -0.010 -0.029 -0.012 Younger Youth Age 14 or 15 High School Dropout Basic Skill Deficiency Skill Attainment 0 0.008 -0.020 -0.092 -0.058 0.011 Diploma Attainment -1.72 0.032 -0.082 -0.299 -0.108 0.031 Retention 0 0.009 -0.060 -0.115 -0.031 -0.059 Youth Common Measures Age 19-21 High School Dropout Basic Skill Deficiency Literacy Numeracy -2.4 0 -0.023 0 --- 0 Age 14-15 Attending high school Placement employment education -1.4 0.012 -0.194 -0.08 -0.047 -0.052 Attained degree or certificate -2.1 0.028 -0.212 0.097 -0.066 0 Note All non-zero estimates are statistically significant at the 1 level. - 1 - Explanation of the Estimated Effects of Customer Characteristics and Unemployment Rates on WIA Performance Measures The estimates in Attachment VI show how unemployment rates and selected customer characteristics affect performance outcomes. These estimates can inform negotiation discussions about the impact of changes in the economic environment and customer characteristics on state performance. Performance measures shown in the table follow the standard definitions for the WIA common measures. These measures were computed using individual participant data obtained from WIASRD. The performance measures shown in the table were defined as follows. Adults and dislocated workers o Entered employment uses the common measures definition and reflects the use of supplemental data o Retention uses the common measures definition and reflects the use of the supplemental data o Average earnings uses the common measures definition o Credentials measure uses the TEGL 17-05 definition and uses supplemental data to determine employment Older and Younger Youth o All measures are based on TEGL 17-05 definitions and use supplemental data where appropriate. Youth o Common measures are based on the current definitions. Literacy and numeracy are based on definition for first year of implementation. The estimated effects of customer characteristics and unemployment rates on performance outcomes were derived using quarterly WIASRD data. For all programs except younger youth the estimates are based on data from 2000 Q3-2008 Q1 for younger youth the estimates are based on data from 2006 Q1-2008 Q1. These relationships are based on the same time period and database that were used to estimate the effects of unemployment rates on the national performance targets incorporated in the President s 2011 budget. Performance outcomes of each individual exiter were regressed against the five customer characteristics and the local unemployment rates. A separate model was estimated for each performance measure for each program. Including all six factors in the same estimation referred to as multi-variate estimation controls for the effects of the other factors on the performance measure. The estimates can be interpreted as the effect on the performance measure of a one percentage point change in the customer characteristic or the unemployment rate. For instance if a state were interested in the estimated effect of percent low income on entered employment for the Adult program it would interpret the coefficient of -0.037 to mean that a one percentage point increase in the percent of low-income customers would be expected to lower the entered employment rate by 0.037 percentage points holding all the other five factors and the unemployment rate the same. Therefore even if low-income participants were also highly likely - 2 - not to have graduated from high school the estimate of -0.037 pertains only to the fact that the individual is low-income. If each factor were regressed in a separate equation as in bi-variate e stimation the estimated effect of any one factor would include the influence of all the others to the extent they are correlated with the factor included in the equation. However for multi-variate estimation if one wanted to compute the effect of an increase in the percentage without a high school e ducation together with an increase in the percentage of low-income customers one would combine the two estimates -0.062 plus -0.037 equals -0.099 . A bi-variate equation has on e response or dependent variable and one predictor or independent variable and the r elationship between the two is represented by a straight line. Building a bi-variate linear reg ression model to represent the relationship between two variables by a straight line involves deter mining the coefficients of that line a process known as fitting the regression line. This type o f model presents a limited model because it only accounts for a factor correlated with another facto r in the equation. A change in the unemployment rate generally has a relatively large effect on the performance measures. For example in the case of the entered employment rate for the WIA Adult program a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers the entered employment rate by 1.25 percentage points. That is if the unemployment rate increased from 8 to 9 percent say the entered employment rate is expected to decline from 68 percent to 66.75 percent. It takes a larger change in the customer characteristics to have a material effect on the performance measures. For example a one percentage point increase in the percentage without a high school education would lead to a 0.062 percentage point decline in entered employment rate for WIA Adult customers. That is if the percentage without a high school education increas ed from 20 percent to 21 percent the entered employment rate is expected to decline from 68 percent to 67.94. Increasing the change to a 10 percentage point increa se in those without a high school education would result in a drop in entered employment from 68 percent to 67.38 percent. The combined effect of a 10 percent increase in each of the two factors the change in unemployment and percent without a high school education would reduce entered e mployment from 68 percent 67 percent -0.062 plus -0.037 equals -0.099 . Definitions of the customer characteristics are consistent with those in the WIASRD. A participant is defined as disabled if he or she indicates a disability such as a physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more of the person s life activities as defined in the Americans with Disability Act of 1990 A participants is defined as not a high school graduate if he or she completed none or some elementary secondary school grades but did not receive a high school diploma or GED A person is defined as low-income if he or she receives cash payments under a Federal state or local income-based public assistance or received an income or part of a family that did that does not exceed the higher of the poverty line or 70 per cent of the lower living standard income level is a member of a household that receives food stamps qualifies as a homeless individual or is a person with a disability whose own income meets the income criteria established by WIA. - 3 - The unemployment rate is the rate that a participant faces in his or her local labor market defined as the local workforce investment area as provided by each state s LMI agency. - 4 - ATTACHMENT VII TIME PERIODS FOR REPORTING PERFORMANCE INFORMATION IN THE WIA ANNUAL REPORT FOR PY 2009 AND PY 2010 Annual Report PY 2009 Annual Report PY 2010 Reporting Item Time Period Exit Cohort to Be Reported Total Participants 7 1 09 to 6 30 10 7 1 10 to 6 30 11 Total Exiters 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 4 1 10 to 3 31 11 Employer Customer Satisfaction 1 1 09 to 12 31 09 1 1 10 to 12 31 10 Participant Customer Satisfaction 1 1 09 to 12 31 09 1 1 10 to 12 31 10 Adult and Dislocated Worker Performance Measures Entered Employment Rate 10 1 08 to 9 30 09 10 1 09 to 9 30 10 Employment Retention Rate 4 1 08 to 3 31 09 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 Six Months Average Earnings 4 1 08 to 3 31 09 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 Employment and Credential Rate 10 1 08 to 9 30 09 10 1 09 to 9 30 10 Older Youth Performance Measures Entered Employment Rate 10 1 08 to 9 30 09 10 1 09 to 9 30 10 Employment Retention Rate 4 1 08 to 3 31 09 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 Earnings Change 4 1 08 to 3 31 09 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 Employment and Credential Rate 10 1 08 to 9 30 09 10 1 09 to 9 30 10 Younger Youth Performance Measures Skill Attainment Rate 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 4 1 10 to 3 31 11 Youth Diploma or Equivalent Rate 4 1 09 to 3 31 10 4 1 10 to 3 31 11 Retention Rate 4 1 08 to 3 31 09 4 1 09 to 3 31 10