UIPL28-09acc.pdf

ETA Advisory File Text

RECISSIONS None EXPIRATION DATE June 23 2010 CLASSIFICATION UI CORRESPONDENCE SYMBOL OWS DPM EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION ADVISORY SYSTEM U. S. Department of Labor Washington D.C. 20210 DATE June 23 2009 ADVISORY UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM LETTER NO. 28-09 TO STATE WORKFORCE AGENCIES FROM DOUGLAS F. SMALL s Deputy Assistant Secretary SUBJECT Government Performance and Results Act GPRA Unemployment Insurance UI Program Goals Fiscal Year FY 2008 Performance and Performance Targets for FY 2009 and FY 2010 1. Purpose . To summarize the UI program s GPRA performance for FY 2008 and announce the FY 2009 and FY 2010 GPRA goals and targets. 2. References . Training and Employment Guidance Letter TEGL 09-08 Change 1 Revised National Performance Goal Targets for the Government Performance Results Act GPRA to support Negotiating State Performance Goals for the Workforce Investment Act Title IB Programs Wagner-Peyser Act Funded Activities for Program Year 2009 TEGL No. 20-07 Government Performance and Results Act GPRA Unemployment Insurance UI Program Goals Fiscal Year FY 2007 Performance and Performance Targets for FY 2008 and FY 2009. 3. Background . The Employment and Training Administration ETA includes five performance goals for the UI program as part of its GPRA plan for FY 2009 and FY 2010. Four of these performance goals have been in place since FY 2003 the fifth an efficiency measure was introduced in FY 2005. Data were available to compute measured performance against all targets for the goals in FY 2008. Three performance targets were met Establish Tax Accounts Promptly Detect Overpayments and Efficiency. Performance declined between 2007 and 2008 for the Payment Timeliness and the Facilitate Reemployment measures and their targets were not met. This directive addresses targets for four indicators. The Efficiency goal is not included because it is computed from U.S. aggregate data and no state indicator exists. Using regression models that relate historical performance on the four indicators to economic conditions all performance targets for FY 2009 and FY 2010 have been revised from those contained in TEGL 20-07. Because the 2 Administration forecasts lower economic performance during 2009 and 2010 in accordance with the models projections three of the targets have been lowered considerably relative to the targets in TEGL 20-07 and relative to FY 2008 performance. The model forecasts rising performance for Establishing Tax Accounts Promptly and the targets were raised accordingly however recent experience suggests that performance may be adversely affected as states divert tax staff to claims taking to meet unprecedented claims volumes. The attachment provides information on state performance on the four indicators addressed. 4. FY 2008 Performance and Targets for FY 2009 and FY 2010. The table below gives the goals and targets for FYs 2008 2010 and FY 2008 performance. FY 2008 GPRA Targets and Performance and FY 2009 and FY 2010 Targets Goal and Indicator FY 2008 Target FY 2008 Actual FY 2009 Target FY 2010 Target Payment Timeliness Percent of intrastate first payments made within 14 21 days. 88.4 86.8 85.7 85.9 Establish Tax Accounts Promptly Percent of new employer liability determinations made within 90 days of the end of the first quarter in which they become liable. 84.9 84.9 88.7 90.0 Detect Overpayments Establish for recovery a percent of the amount of estimated overpayments that states can detect and recover. 56.0 56.0 51.8 52.8 Facilitate Reemployment Percent of UI claimants who were reemployed by the end of the first quarter after the quarter in which they received their first payment. 65.2 62.5 59.0 58.6 The goals and performance during FY 2008 were as follows Payment Timeliness. FY 2008 Target 88.4 of all intrastate first payments for weeks of full unemployment will be made within 14 21 days. o Actual performance for FY 2008 86.8 were made within 14 21 days. States first payment timeliness fell almost 2 percentage points as claims rose sharply by 39 from 2007-Q3 to 2008-Q3. The largest decreases occurred in Kansas Missouri New Hampshire Virginia and Massachusetts. In view of projected weakness in the labor market for at 3 least the next two years FY 2009 and 2010 targets reflect performance levels below the FY 2008 level. First Payment Timeliness Each data point represents the one year period up to and including the given quarter. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 83 85 87 89 91 93 9 10 11 12 13 14 Millions Percent of First Payments made within 14 21 days GPRA Target for FY 2008 88.4 Number of New Initial Claims Filed right scale 4 Establish Tax Accounts Promptly. FY 2008 Target 84.9 of new employer status determinations will be made within 90 days of the end of the quarter in which liability first occurred. o Actual performance for FY 2008 84.9 were made within 90 days. Performance however declined from the FY 2007 level of 85.6 . Based on a regression analysis of historical data showing that status timeliness increases counter-cyclically targets for FY 2009 and beyond have been raised in light of Administration economic assumptions. If states continue to divert tax staff to claims taking to meet service demands however the historical relationship may no longer hold and future targets may need to be revised. Timeliness of New Employer Status Determinations Each data point represents the one year period up to and including the given quarter. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 Millions Percent of New Employer SDs made within 90 days of quarter-ending date GPRA Target for FY 2008 84.9 Number of New Employer Status Determinations right scale 5 Detect Benefit Overpayments. FY 2008 Target Establish actual overpayments totaling at least 56.0 of the Benefit Accuracy Measurement estimate of recoverable dollar overpayments most readily detected through state operations. o Actual performance for FY 2008 56.0 were established. The increase of 1.2 percentage points from FY 2007 occurred because the measured overpayment rate declined while states increased establishments of overpayments. The overpayment rate declined because more individuals were laid off due to lack of work reducing the second leading cause of overpayments which is separations due to quits and discharges. The increase in overpayments established is attributable to increased use of improved integrity tools especially the National Directory of New Hires which shortens overpayment spells and facilitates the detection and establishment of overpayments. Based on regression analysis of this measure performance over the next few years is expected to decline because labor market conditions are expected to weaken enough to cause states to divert Benefit Payment Control staff to other activities. Consequently targets for FY 2009 and 2010 have been set below FY 2008 performance. Detection of Overpayments Each data point represents the one year period up to and including the given quarter. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 50 55 60 65 70 50100 150 200 250 Millions Amount Established by BPC as a of BAM Estimated Operational Overpayment Amount GPRA Target for FY 2008 56 Number of Continued Weeks Claimed right scale Facilitate Claimant Reemployment. FY 2008 Target Reemploy 65.2 of new UI beneficiaries by the end of the first quarter following the quarter in which they received a UI first payment. 6 o Actual performance for FY 2008 62.5 of new UI beneficiaries were reemployed a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the FY 2007 level of 65.1 . Analysis of UI reemployment data shows that reemployment is significantly related to economic conditions measured by the total unemployment rate or TUR and the percentage of claimants who have no definite expectation of reemployment or recall to their former jobs. Because Administration economic assumptions show higher unemployment rates for FY 2009 and 2010 and because fewer claimants can expect definite recall as the TUR rises performance for this indicator is significantly below the FY 2008 level and targets have been reduced accordingly. Facilitation of Reemployment Each data point represents the one year period up to and including the given quarter. Referenced quarter is that of reemployment. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 62 63 64 65 66 Reemployment Rate GPRA Target for FY 2008 65.2 5. Actions . State Workforce Agency administrators and liaisons are requested to a. Distribute this advisory to appropriate staff and b. Review state performance on each performance goal. Although the GPRA targets do not apply to individual states every state s performance influences the overall system performance to which the targets do apply. Therefore states are urged to at least maintain and preferably improve performance on these key performance indicators. 6. Inquiries . Direct questions to the appropriate Regional Office. 7. Attachment Performance on GPRA Indicators by state FY 2008.