Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for California

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for California in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for California in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 68.8% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.743) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.055).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5236 6.82%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4722 -1.46%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1723 -2.66%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0767 -0.60%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0704 -4.22%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.4124 3.36%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0746 -1.74%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.2458 2.12%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0093 -0.12%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0235 0.12%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0256 -0.30%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5053 -6.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1124 -1.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0481 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0612 -0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1118 1.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0411 -0.59%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2005 3.94%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0807 1.02%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1050 -1.90%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0645 1.87%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0718 -0.22%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1347 -1.27%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7605 0.62%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0816 -0.44%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1069 1.66%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0030 -0.06%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5065 9.57%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2363 0.37%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0955 -0.14%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0218 0.30%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1681 1.04%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0001 0.01%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0570 -0.28%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0328 -0.07%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0743 0.33%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.6211 1.37%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 198.0000 -3.62%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0254 5.40%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0505 4.35%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0757 1.44%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0316 -16.82%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0482 -23.45%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1554 58.37%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2302 18.96%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1199 -10.70%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0315 14.27%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0482 10.67%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0417 2.84%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,473 for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41479) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35005).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5294 -$1,504
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4878 -$421
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1675 -$527
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0693 -$366
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0496 -$300
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.4328 $101
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0751 -$331
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.2365 -$550
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0089 -$57
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0216 -$58
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0244 $171
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5176 $187
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1128 $93
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0490 -$65
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0639 $360
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1134 $460
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0375 $320
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2435 $235
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0853 $309
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0813 -$80
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0574 -$77
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0686 -$303
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1351 $20
Low Income -332.4067 0.7354 -$244
Homeless -446.4262 0.0655 -$29
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0949 $191
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0028 -$5
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.5931 $479
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4680.5000 $1,710
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1984 $399
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1036 $71
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0222 -$57
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1793 $164
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0001 $1
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0456 $5
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0209 -$124
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0693 $58
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.6219 -$128
Median Days in Program 3.2489 188.0000 $611
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0254 $611
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0505 $1,632
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0757 $2,972
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0316 -$1,521
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0482 $196
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1554 $15,031
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2302 $12,930
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1199 $6,916
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0315 $339
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0482 $1,910
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0417 -$254

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 44.1% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.744) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.302).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5199 -18.79%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5196 27.11%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1307 -0.92%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0496 -4.95%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0370 10.80%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.4605 -66.57%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0803 17.12%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.1907 -10.81%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0281 2.39%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0292 5.76%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5062 -6.17%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1426 -2.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0591 0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0806 -6.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0935 -1.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0269 4.95%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.2770 10.10%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.2201 -6.70%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0818 -2.14%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0868 2.18%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0747 6.58%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1279 2.73%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0912 7.12%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.5676 -0.07%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2278 1.49%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0205 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.2560 -3.32%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0200 0.99%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0618 -1.76%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.5209 3.81%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 179.0000 6.35%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 95.0000 -2.32%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1779 -0.15%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0254 25.43%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0505 45.06%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0757 91.83%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0316 -138.30%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0482 152.84%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1554 117.69%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2302 228.58%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1199 30.96%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0315 103.56%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0482 -0.69%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0417 -56.47%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.9% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.989) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.707).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5140 3.06%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4381 0.83%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2547 -0.43%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1345 1.43%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1118 -2.13%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.4146 4.91%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.1099 -3.20%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1252 -0.45%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0088 0.77%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0188 -0.19%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0212 -0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4011 -1.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1057 -2.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0526 -0.95%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0683 -0.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1791 -2.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0777 -0.94%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0213 0.23%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0283 -0.07%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0557 -0.29%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0804 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0839 -2.11%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0967 0.43%
Low Income -0.0518 0.5386 -2.79%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0200 0.06%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0447 1.69%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0106 -0.24%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8295 9.38%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1486 0.85%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7622 1.59%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0859 0.63%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1876 0.93%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0012 -0.06%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0062 -0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0079 0.65%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0174 -0.92%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.8246 -4.23%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 227.0000 0.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0254 -5.13%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0505 -2.36%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0757 -12.92%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0316 -31.24%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0482 -30.23%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1554 -55.97%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2302 -45.92%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1199 -34.20%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0315 9.59%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0482 5.92%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0417 1.72%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,277 for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 31543) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-23266).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5138 -$977
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4621 $515
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2626 -$33
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1319 -$281
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0781 -$195
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.4261 -$365
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.1072 -$502
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1243 -$191
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0094 -$31
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0177 -$62
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0210 -$78
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4056 -$568
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1066 -$203
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0544 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0696 $106
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1779 $208
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0759 $164
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0242 $41
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0288 $109
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0463 $13
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0754 $109
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0819 -$244
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0980 -$77
Low Income -538.7097 0.5356 -$289
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0181 $143
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0430 $78
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0096 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8577 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 8901.7100 $816
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1368 $185
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7751 $53
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0792 -$197
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1980 $35
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0015 $10
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0060 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0055 -$12
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0169 -$71
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.8243 -$332
Median Days in Program 2.2222 214.0000 $476
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0254 -$692
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0505 $1,850
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0757 $3,574
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0316 -$8,212
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0482 $4,138
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1554 $14,762
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2302 $11,781
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1199 $5,274
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0315 -$143
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0482 $1,073
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0417 -$241

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 50.1% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.678) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.177).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5309 -8.01%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4768 -3.12%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2516 6.07%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1140 5.22%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0866 7.91%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.4323 -28.73%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.1012 -5.40%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1219 -4.01%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0201 5.32%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0232 0.12%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4105 -7.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1224 -2.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0574 -1.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0794 2.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1662 -1.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0754 -3.22%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0216 -0.05%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0753 -1.99%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0482 -6.98%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0782 -7.22%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0733 3.31%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0968 3.57%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0484 2.27%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8192 2.35%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1627 6.31%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0685 2.44%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2728 -1.68%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0046 -0.20%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0167 -6.48%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.8031 -7.73%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 242.0000 -7.78%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 142.5000 -3.90%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1161 1.88%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0254 -20.51%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0505 22.46%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0757 74.64%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0316 -185.24%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0482 58.77%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1554 249.42%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2302 164.92%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1199 18.14%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0315 205.80%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0482 -13.72%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0417 -45.10%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 68.0% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.413) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.092).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5281 3.14%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0050 0.06%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1697 -2.44%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3778 -7.76%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2281 0.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.5943 -3.73%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0478 0.95%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.1872 -0.77%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0108 -0.58%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0264 -0.88%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0312 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5439 3.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0123 -0.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0036 0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0079 0.39%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.0829 2.28%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1615 0.58%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1074 -0.50%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0581 -0.81%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9737 3.65%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1062 -2.13%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0687 0.44%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0651 -0.07%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1430 -1.02%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7468 2.61%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.2707 -2.35%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0090 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5090 2.25%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0244 -0.37%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0151 0.11%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0505 -0.17%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0127 0.05%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.3421 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.4576 0.68%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 202.0000 -0.81%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0254 -17.23%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0505 -9.49%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0757 -10.30%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0316 -23.03%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0482 -10.29%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1554 -39.71%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2302 0.57%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1199 -4.73%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0315 -34.01%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0482 15.89%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0417 -6.20%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,491 for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14110) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10619).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5270 -$989.47
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0028 -$0.26
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1396 -$182.75
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3777 -$402.82
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2452 $159.29
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.6013 $1,150.50
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0431 $28.02
Race: Black -886.3703 0.1822 -$161.48
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0104 -$35.16
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0257 -$4.75
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0303 $28.29
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5932 $820.93
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0119 -$9.82
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0046 $0.79
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0093 $62.04
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1079 $66.25
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1319 $72.06
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0942 -$46.64
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0582 $142.99
Low Income -305.7985 0.9701 -$296.65
Homeless 983.9044 0.1044 $102.75
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0660 -$84.82
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0590 $59.60
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1471 $125.74
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.7445 -$211.05
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.2605 -$164.17
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0109 -$5.05
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5305 $85.51
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0229 -$4.22
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0116 -$19.22
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0449 -$24.22
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0156 $1.63
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.3378 -$1.46
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.4646 -$12.95
Median Days in Program 0.5942 203.0000 $120.62
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0254 -$80.53
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0505 $554.89
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0757 $1,632.95
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0316 -$1,750.15
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0482 $2,158.66
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1554 $2,208.95
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2302 $4,690.08
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1199 $850.11
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0315 $1,796.83
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0482 $2,098.59
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0417 -$420.41

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 56.4% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.906) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.342).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5443 -15.01%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0097 -0.78%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2651 -23.93%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3804 -26.62%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1893 -31.05%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.6298 -1.07%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0481 -0.08%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.1633 0.07%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0242 -0.38%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0318 6.27%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3645 -9.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0172 1.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0023 -0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0041 0.77%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3001 0.66%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7606 15.03%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0084 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.5041 -3.59%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0120 0.33%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0112 0.62%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0170 -1.50%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.2306 -1.16%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 133.0000 -4.34%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1932 -6.65%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0254 19.37%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0505 48.32%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0757 44.17%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0316 -135.09%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0482 -68.62%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1554 224.90%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2302 162.62%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1199 75.55%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0315 160.19%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0482 -35.35%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0417 -4.86%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 62.1% for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.312) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.691).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4556 3.65%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4373 4.75%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2231 -1.92%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1126 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1323 -0.83%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.3918 9.11%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0711 -1.67%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0878 -1.41%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0082 0.80%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0171 -0.52%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0178 0.44%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3148 -0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1670 0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0624 -0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0695 2.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1521 -10.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0655 -3.44%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0848 0.73%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0591 -0.53%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0411 -1.46%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0670 1.45%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0192 0.39%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1374 1.27%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0126 -0.08%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0052 0.10%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0061 -0.14%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8267 26.24%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0089 -0.14%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6967 -2.68%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0151 -0.13%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0011 0.12%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0005 -0.03%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 19.0000 -0.52%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0254 4.28%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0505 7.78%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0757 7.67%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0316 -1.45%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0482 14.28%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1554 14.65%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2302 29.54%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1199 7.10%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0315 12.29%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0482 8.19%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0417 1.43%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,689 for California for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42504) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35815).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4557 -$1,264
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4613 $704
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2298 $51
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1092 $188
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0991 $395
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.4225 $636
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0675 -$87
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0880 -$257
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0083 -$21
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0167 -$93
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0175 $187
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3117 -$550
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1639 -$357
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0625 -$136
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0690 $145
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1524 $11
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0639 -$320
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1018 $46
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0584 -$67
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0333 -$170
Veteran -913.8967 0.0563 -$51
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0196 $13
Low Income 634.4633 0.1338 $85
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0100 -$35
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0048 $9
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0057 -$61
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8753 -$192
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 8122.6000 $2,121
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0066 $5
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7005 $319
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0145 $4
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0008 $9
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0006 $1
Median Days in Program 0.8717 21.0000 $18
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0254 $941
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0505 $2,158
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0757 $3,613
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0316 $357
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0482 $3,017
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1554 $10,546
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2302 $11,855
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1199 $5,159
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0315 $1,312
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0482 $2,473
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0417 -$212

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x