Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Hawaii

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Hawaii in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Hawaii in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.9% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.523) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.117).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.7117 9.26%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5828 -1.80%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1718 -2.65%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0368 -0.29%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0307 -1.84%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1411 1.15%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.3129 -7.30%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0491 0.42%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.4908 -6.48%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0982 0.49%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.2883 -3.41%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5521 -6.94%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1411 -1.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0613 0.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0675 -0.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1104 1.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3497 6.87%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.1043 1.32%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0920 -1.67%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0491 1.42%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0061 -0.02%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2393 -2.25%
Low Income 0.0081 0.8957 0.73%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0552 -0.29%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0859 1.33%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0245 -0.45%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.4417 8.35%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0798 0.13%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0245 -0.04%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0061 0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.2515 1.56%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0368 -0.18%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0429 -0.09%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.1166 0.51%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9816 2.16%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 473.0000 -8.66%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0090 1.91%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0571 4.92%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0305 0.58%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0145 -7.71%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0441 -21.47%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1261 47.37%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2107 17.35%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1971 -17.59%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0423 19.16%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0642 14.22%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0270 1.84%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $4,216 for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40001) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35784).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6667 -$1,894
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5972 -$515
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1806 -$568
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0556 -$294
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0278 -$168
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1667 $39
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.3472 -$1,533
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0833 -$194
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.4444 -$2,823
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0556 -$150
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.2778 $1,940
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5972 $216
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1528 $126
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0556 -$74
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0694 $392
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1250 $507
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0000 $0
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.5000 $483
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1667 $604
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0833 -$82
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0556 -$75
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2083 $30
Low Income -332.4067 0.8194 -$272
Homeless -446.4262 0.0417 -$19
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0417 $84
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0139 -$27
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.5833 $471
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4405.4150 $1,609
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0833 $168
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0556 $38
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0139 -$36
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.2917 $266
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0278 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0417 -$246
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0556 $47
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9583 -$197
Median Days in Program 3.2489 360.0000 $1,170
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0090 $216
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0571 $1,847
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0305 $1,195
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0145 -$697
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0441 $180
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1261 $12,197
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2107 $11,834
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1971 $11,367
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0423 $456
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0642 $2,546
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0270 -$165

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 26.6% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.856) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.59).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.7816 -28.25%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6207 32.39%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1034 -0.73%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0575 -5.73%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0460 13.43%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0805 -11.63%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.4138 88.18%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0805 -4.56%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0345 2.94%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.2529 49.97%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5287 -6.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1609 -2.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0575 0.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1149 -9.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1034 -2.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0345 6.34%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4598 16.77%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0920 -2.80%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0460 -1.20%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0460 1.15%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1724 3.68%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0230 1.80%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.4483 -0.06%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0805 0.52%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.1724 -2.24%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0575 2.83%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0575 -1.64%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9310 6.81%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 283.5000 10.05%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 87.0000 -2.12%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1034 -0.09%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0090 8.98%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0571 51.02%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0305 36.93%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0145 -63.43%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0441 139.94%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1261 95.50%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2107 209.20%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1971 50.88%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0423 139.09%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0642 -0.92%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0270 -36.56%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 90.9% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.611) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.52).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.7113 4.24%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3608 0.68%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2784 -0.47%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.2165 2.29%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1134 -2.16%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1340 1.59%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.3711 -10.80%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0206 -0.07%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.2784 24.47%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0309 -0.30%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.2165 -4.22%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4021 -1.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1340 -2.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0825 -1.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1340 -1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1546 -2.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0309 -0.37%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0515 0.55%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0412 -0.10%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0206 -0.11%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0412 0.02%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0206 -0.52%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0619 0.28%
Low Income -0.0518 0.5258 -2.72%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0103 0.39%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8763 9.91%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0103 0.06%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.9072 1.89%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0619 0.46%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1443 0.72%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 416.0000 0.33%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0090 -1.81%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0571 -2.67%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0305 -5.20%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0145 -14.33%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0441 -27.68%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1261 -45.42%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2107 -42.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1971 -56.21%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0423 12.88%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0642 7.89%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0270 1.11%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,759 for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 31710) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-23951).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.7083 -$1,347
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3750 $418
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3125 -$39
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1875 -$399
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1250 -$312
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1875 -$161
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.3542 -$1,659
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0208 -$32
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.2292 -$749
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0208 -$73
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.2083 -$773
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3542 -$496
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1667 -$317
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0833 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1667 $254
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1250 $146
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0625 $135
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0417 $71
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0625 $237
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0000 $0
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0000 $0
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0000 $0
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0000 $0
Low Income -538.7097 0.4792 -$258
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8958 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9748.6900 $894
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.9167 $63
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0417 -$104
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1875 $33
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 331.0000 $736
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0090 -$244
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0571 $2,094
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0305 $1,437
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0145 -$3,766
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0441 $3,789
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1261 $11,979
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2107 $10,782
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1971 $8,668
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0423 -$192
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0642 $1,430
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0270 -$156

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 26.2% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.735) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.473).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.7018 -10.59%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.3860 -2.53%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2456 5.93%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.2105 9.64%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.1404 12.83%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1404 -9.33%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.5614 -29.98%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0175 4.64%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.1930 0.97%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.2456 -4.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2456 -5.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.1579 -4.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0702 1.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2281 -2.56%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0526 -2.25%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0351 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1228 -3.25%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0175 -2.54%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0351 -3.24%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0702 2.59%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0175 0.82%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.5965 1.71%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0702 2.72%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0526 1.87%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0526 -0.32%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0351 -1.53%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9825 -9.46%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 254.0000 -8.16%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 139.0000 -3.80%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1930 3.13%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0090 -7.25%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0571 25.42%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0305 30.02%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0145 -84.95%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0441 53.81%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1261 202.40%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2107 150.93%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1971 29.81%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0423 276.40%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0642 -18.28%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0270 -29.20%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.0% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.414) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.164).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.2841 1.69%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0114 0.14%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.6818 -9.79%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2273 -4.67%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.0682 0.07%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.2386 -1.50%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.5114 10.17%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.1136 -0.47%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.7727 -41.28%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0568 -1.90%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.5000 7.54%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.0682 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1023 2.81%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1136 0.40%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0682 -0.32%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0568 -0.79%
Low Income 0.0375 1.0000 3.75%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0455 0.29%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.0795 -0.57%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.1818 0.64%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5341 2.36%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0227 -0.34%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0341 -0.12%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0227 0.08%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.7386 0.04%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.8409 1.25%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 604.0000 -2.42%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0090 -6.09%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0571 -10.74%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0305 -4.14%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0145 -10.56%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0441 -9.43%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1261 -32.23%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2107 0.52%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1971 -7.77%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0423 -45.68%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0642 21.18%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0270 -4.01%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $4,030 for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 11810) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7780).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.2941 -$552.20
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0196 -$1.81
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.6078 -$795.70
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.2745 -$292.76
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.0784 $50.94
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1569 $300.15
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.5098 $331.23
Race: Black -886.3703 0.1373 -$121.66
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.8431 -$2,856.91
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0784 -$14.47
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.5098 $475.70
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.0784 $108.54
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1373 $84.25
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1176 $64.26
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0588 -$29.13
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0588 $144.49
Low Income -305.7985 1.0000 -$305.80
Homeless 983.9044 0.0000 $0.00
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0392 -$50.38
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.0980 $83.78
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.2353 -$66.70
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0000 $0.00
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.6667 $107.45
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0196 -$3.61
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0000 $0.00
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0392 -$21.16
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0196 $2.04
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.7451 -$3.23
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.8824 -$24.59
Median Days in Program 0.5942 583.0000 $346.42
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0090 -$28.45
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0571 $628.23
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0305 $656.68
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0145 -$802.65
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0441 $1,976.51
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1261 $1,792.50
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2107 $4,292.43
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1971 $1,397.12
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0423 $2,413.29
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0642 $2,797.44
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0270 -$272.19

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 24.8% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.595) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.347).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5174 -14.27%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0315 -2.56%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.4164 -37.58%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2997 -20.97%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1514 -24.84%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1956 -0.33%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.5489 -0.89%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0536 0.02%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0726 -1.14%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.5047 99.57%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1893 -5.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0694 7.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0095 1.80%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2681 0.59%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.4101 8.10%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6057 -4.32%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0189 1.05%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0726 -6.43%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.4227 -2.13%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 367.0000 -11.98%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0379 -1.30%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0090 6.84%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0571 54.71%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0305 17.76%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0145 -61.96%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0441 -62.83%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1261 182.50%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2107 148.83%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1971 124.16%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0423 215.14%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0642 -47.13%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0270 -3.15%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 51.9% for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.52) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-1.002).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4609 3.69%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4132 4.49%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2421 -2.08%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1236 -0.09%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1568 -0.99%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0922 2.14%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.3138 -7.39%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0467 -0.75%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.3297 31.99%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0432 -1.32%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.1703 4.21%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4104 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2196 0.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0518 -0.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0866 3.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1341 -9.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0419 -2.20%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1486 1.29%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0424 -0.38%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0638 -2.27%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1070 2.32%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0296 0.60%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1009 0.93%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0327 -0.22%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0092 0.17%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0056 -0.13%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7434 23.59%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0278 -0.43%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6834 -2.63%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0105 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0020 0.22%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0094 -0.54%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 27.0000 -0.74%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0090 1.51%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0571 8.81%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0305 3.08%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0145 -0.67%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0441 13.08%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1261 11.89%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2107 27.04%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1971 11.67%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0423 16.51%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0642 10.92%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0270 0.93%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,785 for Hawaii for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41200) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35415).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4714 -$1,308
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4224 $645
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2714 $61
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1204 $208
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1197 $478
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0966 $146
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.3333 -$429
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0463 -$135
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.3463 -$856
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0401 -$223
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.1755 $1,874
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4231 -$746
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2109 -$459
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0599 -$131
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0966 $202
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1354 $10
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0299 -$150
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1973 $90
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0565 -$65
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0578 -$295
Veteran -913.8967 0.1027 -$94
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0238 $16
Low Income 634.4633 0.0912 $58
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0320 -$112
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0088 $17
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0068 -$74
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8388 -$184
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 8889.3900 $2,321
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0190 $15
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.6803 $309
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0122 $3
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0014 $15
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0041 $7
Median Days in Program 0.8717 30.0000 $26
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0090 $332
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0571 $2,443
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0305 $1,453
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0145 $164
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0441 $2,762
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1261 $8,558
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2107 $10,849
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1971 $8,479
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0423 $1,762
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0642 $3,297
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0270 -$137

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x