Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Oregon

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Oregon in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Oregon in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.9% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.747) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.048).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4796 6.24%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4895 -1.51%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.2124 -3.28%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0997 -0.78%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.1069 -6.41%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1243 1.01%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0358 -0.83%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0518 0.45%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0137 -0.18%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0496 0.25%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0476 -0.56%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4396 -5.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.0964 -1.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0275 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.1117 -0.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1579 2.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0521 -0.75%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.1413 2.77%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0006 0.01%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0737 -1.34%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0705 2.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0407 -0.12%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2634 -2.48%
Low Income 0.0081 0.4584 0.37%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0577 -0.31%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0726 1.12%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0670 -1.23%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.8527 16.11%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0535 0.08%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.4672 -0.69%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0223 0.31%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0017 0.01%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0085 -0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0218 -0.04%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0350 0.15%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 43.0000 -0.79%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0295 6.28%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0583 5.02%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1017 1.93%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0189 -10.06%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0454 -22.10%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1324 49.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2229 18.36%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1151 -10.27%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0407 18.43%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0430 9.52%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0414 2.82%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,619 for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41623) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35004).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4768 -$1,355
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5018 -$433
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.2152 -$677
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0985 -$521
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0893 -$541
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1329 $31
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0347 -$153
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0517 -$120
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0138 -$88
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0483 -$130
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0472 $330
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4446 $161
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.0932 $77
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0270 -$36
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.1137 $642
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1587 $643
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0499 $426
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.1685 $163
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0005 $2
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0595 -$59
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0671 -$91
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0444 -$196
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2605 $38
Low Income -332.4067 0.4340 -$144
Homeless -446.4262 0.0478 -$21
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0627 $126
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0589 -$115
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.9014 $728
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 7588.3600 $2,772
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0436 $88
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.4896 $336
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0185 -$47
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0014 $1
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0075 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0159 -$94
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0291 $24
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 3.2489 43.0000 $140
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0295 $710
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0583 $1,885
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1017 $3,991
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0189 -$910
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0454 $185
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1324 $12,810
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2229 $12,518
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1151 $6,636
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0407 $438
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0430 $1,704
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0414 -$253

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 27.6% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.165) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.889).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5385 -19.46%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5026 26.22%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1308 -0.92%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0496 -4.95%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0277 8.09%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1749 -25.29%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0598 12.74%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.1031 -5.85%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0529 4.51%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0584 11.54%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4576 -5.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.0919 -1.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0313 0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1039 -8.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1108 -2.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0233 4.29%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.2846 10.38%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0228 -0.69%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.1017 -2.66%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0348 0.87%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0472 4.16%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.3019 6.44%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0927 7.24%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6482 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0825 0.54%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0409 0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0853 -1.11%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0121 0.59%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0562 -1.60%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 213.0000 7.55%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 102.0000 -2.49%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1376 -0.12%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0295 29.56%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0583 52.07%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1017 123.32%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0189 -82.74%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0454 144.07%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1324 100.31%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2229 221.29%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1151 29.70%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0407 133.78%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0430 -0.61%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0414 -56.11%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.1% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.731) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.463).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4711 2.81%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4874 0.92%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2173 -0.37%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1037 1.10%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1161 -2.21%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1211 1.44%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0347 -1.01%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0430 -0.15%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0127 1.12%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0476 -0.47%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0466 -0.91%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4191 -1.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.0982 -1.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0264 -0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1145 -1.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1725 -2.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0586 -0.71%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1238 1.31%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0007 0.00%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0655 -0.35%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0737 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0425 -1.07%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2558 1.14%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4230 -2.19%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0477 0.15%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0613 2.32%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0926 -2.11%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8940 10.11%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0739 0.42%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6450 1.34%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0308 0.23%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0008 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0078 -0.10%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0173 1.41%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0292 -1.55%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 43.0000 0.03%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0295 -5.97%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0583 -2.72%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1017 -17.36%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0189 -18.69%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0454 -28.50%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1324 -47.70%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2229 -44.46%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1151 -32.82%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0407 12.38%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0430 5.28%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0414 1.70%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,042 for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 33903) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-26861).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4677 -$889
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4979 $555
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2203 -$28
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1031 -$219
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0989 -$247
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1299 -$111
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0333 -$156
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0434 -$67
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0127 -$42
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0465 -$164
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0463 -$172
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4236 -$593
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.0951 -$181
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0256 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1160 $177
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1725 $202
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0556 $120
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1481 $252
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0005 $2
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0544 $15
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0699 $101
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0475 -$141
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2522 -$198
Low Income -538.7097 0.4032 -$217
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0400 $316
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0533 $96
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0800 $15
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9275 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7893.0000 $723
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0591 $80
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6643 $46
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0251 -$63
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0007 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0069 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0140 -$29
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0241 -$102
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 2.2222 43.0000 $96
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0295 -$804
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0583 $2,138
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1017 $4,799
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0189 -$4,913
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0454 $3,901
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1324 $12,581
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2229 $11,406
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1151 $5,060
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0407 -$185
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0430 $957
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0414 -$240

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 33.0% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.077) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.748).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5116 -7.72%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5306 -3.48%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.1806 4.36%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0707 3.24%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0434 3.96%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1444 -9.60%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0404 -2.16%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0820 -2.70%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0499 13.21%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0553 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4314 -8.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1081 -2.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0345 -0.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1194 3.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1236 -1.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0303 -1.30%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1836 -0.39%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0143 -0.38%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0969 -14.02%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0564 -5.21%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0339 1.53%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.3381 12.48%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.1016 4.77%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.6869 1.97%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1788 6.94%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0885 3.15%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0422 -0.26%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0095 -0.41%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0719 -27.84%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 232.5000 -7.47%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 107.0000 -2.93%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1456 2.36%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0295 -23.85%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0583 25.95%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1017 100.24%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0189 -110.81%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0454 55.40%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1324 212.58%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2229 159.66%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1151 17.40%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0407 265.84%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0430 -12.23%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0414 -44.81%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.5% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.462) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.097).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.4752 2.83%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0090 0.11%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.3454 -4.96%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3544 -7.28%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1785 0.19%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.2128 -1.34%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0343 0.68%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0775 -0.32%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0153 -0.82%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0920 -3.07%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0812 1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.2867 1.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0045 -0.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0009 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0027 0.13%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1298 3.57%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1199 0.43%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1542 -0.72%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0514 -0.72%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8972 3.36%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1244 -2.50%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1010 0.64%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0658 -0.07%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1253 -0.90%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7295 2.55%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0072 -0.06%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0090 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.6267 2.77%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0334 -0.50%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0234 0.17%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0649 -0.22%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0307 0.11%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.5482 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 349.0000 -1.40%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0295 -20.03%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0583 -10.96%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1017 -13.83%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0189 -13.77%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0454 -9.70%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1324 -33.85%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2229 0.55%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1151 -4.54%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0407 -43.93%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0430 14.17%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0414 -6.16%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,477 for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14085) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10608).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.4650 -$873.01
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0112 -$1.03
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.3207 -$419.85
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3852 -$410.76
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1849 $120.07
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.2129 $407.35
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0350 $22.75
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0798 -$70.76
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0112 -$37.97
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0924 -$17.05
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0910 $84.95
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3039 $420.61
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0056 -$4.64
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0014 $0.24
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0028 $18.69
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1597 $98.00
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1120 $61.20
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1359 -$67.27
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0392 $96.33
Low Income -305.7985 0.8950 -$273.68
Homeless 983.9044 0.1204 $118.51
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0994 -$127.75
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0700 $70.72
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1232 $105.32
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.7269 -$206.06
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0070 -$4.41
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0112 -$5.18
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.6008 $96.84
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0336 -$6.19
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0168 -$27.88
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0616 -$33.26
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0322 $3.36
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.5630 -$2.44
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0000 $0.00
Median Days in Program 0.5942 348.0000 $206.78
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0295 -$93.61
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0583 $641.23
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1017 $2,192.90
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0189 -$1,046.96
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0454 $2,034.81
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1324 $1,882.62
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2229 $4,540.63
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1151 $815.62
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0407 $2,321.03
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0430 $1,871.97
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0414 -$417.76

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 38.3% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.93) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.547).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5006 -13.81%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0200 -1.62%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.4305 -38.85%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3071 -21.49%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1409 -23.11%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.2297 -0.39%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0333 -0.05%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0901 0.04%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0719 -1.14%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0822 16.22%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1530 -4.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0079 0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0030 -0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0054 1.03%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2134 0.47%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7273 14.37%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0091 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6282 -4.48%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0339 0.93%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0151 0.84%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0611 -5.41%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 283.0000 -9.23%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0635 -2.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0295 22.51%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0583 55.84%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1017 59.31%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0189 -80.81%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0454 -64.69%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1324 191.68%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2229 157.43%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1151 72.48%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0407 206.92%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0430 -31.54%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0414 -4.83%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.2% for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.401) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.709).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4564 3.65%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4810 5.22%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2091 -1.80%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0989 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1042 -0.66%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1308 3.04%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0346 -0.81%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0538 -0.87%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0146 1.42%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0564 -1.73%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0528 1.30%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4542 -0.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.0920 0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0265 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.1096 3.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1443 -9.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0473 -2.48%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1737 1.50%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0505 -0.46%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0802 -2.85%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0727 1.58%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0429 -0.08%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.2637 5.35%
Low Income 0.0926 0.4932 4.57%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0016 -0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0765 1.42%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0715 -1.65%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8253 26.19%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0525 -0.81%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.3930 -1.51%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0414 -0.48%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0102 -0.58%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 42.0000 -1.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0295 4.97%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0583 8.99%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1017 10.30%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0189 -0.87%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0454 13.46%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1324 12.49%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2229 28.60%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1151 6.81%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0407 15.88%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0430 7.31%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0414 1.42%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,594 for Oregon for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41458) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34864).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4504 -$1,250
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4912 $750
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2119 $47
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0986 $170
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0890 $355
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1353 $204
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0339 -$44
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0535 -$157
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0146 -$36
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0543 -$302
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0514 $549
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4606 -$813
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.0899 -$196
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0252 -$55
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.1123 $235
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1456 $11
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0458 -$230
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2075 $95
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0473 -$55
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0645 -$329
Veteran -913.8967 0.0689 -$63
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0444 $69
Single Parent 660.1018 0.2590 $171
Low Income 634.4633 0.4566 $290
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0013 -$4
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0646 $124
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0597 -$647
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8812 -$193
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7401.6450 $1,933
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0409 $32
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.4019 $183
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0325 -$38
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0086 $14
Median Days in Program 0.8717 42.0000 $37
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0295 $1,094
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0583 $2,494
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1017 $4,852
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0189 $214
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0454 $2,844
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1324 $8,988
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2229 $11,477
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1151 $4,950
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0407 $1,694
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0430 $2,206
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0414 -$211

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x