Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Washington

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Washington in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Washington in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.0% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.594) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.096).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4650 6.05%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4432 -1.37%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.2419 -3.74%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.1240 -0.97%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.1323 -7.93%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0611 0.50%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.1062 -2.48%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0800 0.69%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0198 -0.26%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0272 0.14%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0292 -0.34%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.2864 -3.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2083 -2.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0353 0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.1020 -0.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.2194 3.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0833 -1.19%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.0845 1.66%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0479 0.61%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0684 -1.24%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0683 1.98%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0732 -0.22%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0287 -0.27%
Low Income 0.0081 0.1546 0.13%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0402 -0.21%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0572 0.89%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0013 -0.02%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7773 14.69%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0015 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1355 -0.20%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1181 0.73%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0008 0.04%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0603 -0.30%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0418 0.18%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 1.0000 2.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 27.0000 -0.49%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0310 6.60%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0600 5.17%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0891 1.69%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0421 -22.42%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0446 -21.68%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1251 47.02%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2246 18.50%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1068 -9.53%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0298 13.51%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0496 10.98%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0454 3.10%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,596 for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39919) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-31323).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4596 -$1,306
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4612 -$398
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.2465 -$775
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.1209 -$640
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.1079 -$654
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0649 $15
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.1075 -$474
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0851 -$198
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0211 -$134
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0268 -$72
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0296 $207
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.2890 $105
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2048 $169
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0367 -$49
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.1053 $594
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.2211 $896
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0808 $690
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.0992 $96
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0500 $181
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0575 -$57
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0655 -$88
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0737 -$326
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0298 $4
Low Income -332.4067 0.1515 -$50
Homeless -446.4262 0.0362 -$16
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0562 $113
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0009 -$2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.8044 $650
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 11040.6100 $4,033
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0017 $4
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1798 $123
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1215 $111
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0011 $16
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0651 $7
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0382 $32
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 1.0000 -$205
Median Days in Program 3.2489 28.0000 $91
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0310 $747
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0600 $1,938
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0891 $3,494
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0421 -$2,027
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0446 $182
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1251 $12,107
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2246 $12,614
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1068 $6,161
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0298 $321
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0496 $1,966
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0454 -$277

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 39.2% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.579) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.187).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5152 -18.62%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5294 27.62%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1791 -1.26%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0817 -8.15%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0553 16.15%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1380 -19.94%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0974 20.75%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0954 -5.41%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0318 2.71%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0372 7.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3816 -4.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2402 -4.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0386 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1086 -9.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1243 -2.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0338 6.21%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.2412 8.80%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1972 -6.00%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0856 -2.24%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0489 1.23%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0783 6.90%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1370 2.92%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1071 8.37%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.3278 -0.04%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0215 0.14%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4481 -5.81%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0391 -1.11%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 1.0000 7.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 226.0000 8.01%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 336.5000 -8.21%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0479 -0.04%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0310 31.09%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0600 53.53%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0891 107.97%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0421 -184.34%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0446 141.34%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1251 94.80%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2246 222.98%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1068 27.58%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0298 98.06%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0496 -0.71%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0454 -61.49%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.2% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2.027) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.779).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4069 2.42%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4337 0.82%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2726 -0.46%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1380 1.46%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1098 -2.09%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0921 1.09%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0898 -2.61%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0526 -0.19%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0154 1.35%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0231 -0.23%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0255 -0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3108 -0.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2086 -4.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0372 -0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1189 -1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2070 -3.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0743 -0.90%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1825 1.94%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0810 -0.21%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0861 -0.45%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1119 0.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0670 -1.69%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0415 0.19%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1336 -0.69%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0181 0.06%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0378 1.43%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0044 -0.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.6614 7.48%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1162 0.67%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.1785 0.37%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3382 1.68%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0020 -0.10%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.1005 -1.27%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0094 -0.50%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 149.0000 0.12%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0310 -6.28%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0600 -2.80%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0891 -15.20%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0421 -41.64%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0446 -27.96%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1251 -45.08%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2246 -44.80%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1068 -30.47%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0298 9.08%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0496 6.09%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0454 1.87%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,579 for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 27259) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-17680).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4026 -$765
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4525 $505
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2716 -$34
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1339 -$285
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0917 -$229
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0972 -$83
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0925 -$434
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0550 -$85
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0171 -$56
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0222 -$78
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0264 -$98
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3203 -$448
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1940 -$369
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0401 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1173 $179
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2043 $239
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0793 $171
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.2072 $352
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0819 $310
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0733 $21
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1011 $146
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0652 -$194
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0422 -$33
Low Income -538.7097 0.1275 -$69
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0166 $131
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0358 $65
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0017 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.6823 $14
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 10777.4400 $988
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1075 $145
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.2009 $14
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3433 $60
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0026 $17
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0994 $47
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0085 -$36
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 148.0000 $329
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0310 -$846
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0600 $2,197
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0891 $4,202
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0421 -$10,946
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0446 $3,827
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1251 $11,890
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2246 $11,493
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1068 $4,698
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0298 -$136
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0496 $1,104
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0454 -$263

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.8% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.523) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.795).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4359 -6.58%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4817 -3.16%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2635 6.36%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1193 5.46%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0789 7.21%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1257 -8.35%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.1101 -5.88%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0658 -2.17%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0331 8.77%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0375 0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3288 -6.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2211 -5.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0331 -0.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1271 3.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1963 -2.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0565 -2.42%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1086 -0.23%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1057 -2.79%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0653 -9.45%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0838 -7.74%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0541 2.44%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0482 1.78%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0429 2.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.3609 1.03%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1797 6.98%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.4457 -2.74%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0093 -3.58%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 1.0000 -9.63%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 288.0000 -9.25%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 419.0000 -11.46%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0253 0.41%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0310 -25.08%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0600 26.67%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0891 87.77%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0421 -246.90%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0446 54.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1251 200.91%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2246 160.88%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1068 16.16%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0298 194.87%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0496 -14.12%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0454 -49.11%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.6% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.522) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.159).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.4804 2.86%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0049 0.06%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2694 -3.87%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3266 -6.71%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2181 0.23%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.2437 -1.53%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0687 1.37%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.1538 -0.64%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0387 -2.07%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0589 -1.97%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0714 1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.2857 1.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0294 -0.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0033 0.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0093 0.46%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1232 3.39%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1668 0.59%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1216 -0.57%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0676 -0.94%
Low Income 0.0375 0.2950 1.11%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1325 -2.66%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1178 0.75%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0338 -0.03%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1576 -1.13%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.3528 1.23%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0616 -0.27%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5354 2.37%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.2944 -4.45%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0371 -0.13%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0049 0.02%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2148 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 1.0000 1.48%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 200.0000 -0.80%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0310 -21.07%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0600 -11.27%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0891 -12.11%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0421 -30.69%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0446 -9.52%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1251 -31.99%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2246 0.55%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1068 -4.21%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0298 -32.20%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0496 16.35%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0454 -6.75%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,480 for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 12340) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-8860).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5009 -$940.38
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0017 -$0.16
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2461 -$322.14
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3270 -$348.69
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2287 $148.54
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.2670 $510.81
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0670 $43.50
Race: Black -886.3703 0.1565 -$138.74
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0374 -$126.70
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0513 -$9.46
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0722 $67.35
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3087 $427.22
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0365 -$30.25
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0035 $0.60
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0096 $63.82
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1565 $96.07
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1609 $87.87
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1139 -$56.41
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0670 $164.47
Low Income -305.7985 0.3009 -$92.01
Homeless 983.9044 0.1409 $138.60
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1087 -$139.64
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0270 $27.22
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1757 $150.10
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.3539 -$100.33
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0835 -$38.62
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5513 $88.86
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.3113 -$57.30
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0000 $0.00
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0304 -$16.42
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0043 $0.45
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2043 -$0.89
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 1.0000 -$27.87
Median Days in Program 0.5942 186.5000 $110.82
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0310 -$98.46
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0600 $659.15
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0891 $1,920.08
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0421 -$2,332.71
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0446 $1,996.29
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1251 $1,779.26
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2246 $4,575.35
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1068 $757.26
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0298 $1,701.40
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0496 $2,159.83
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0454 -$457.78

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 24.1% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.119) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.878).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.4869 -13.43%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0043 -0.35%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3813 -34.42%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3460 -24.21%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1620 -26.58%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.2428 -0.41%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0722 -0.12%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.1326 0.06%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0765 -1.21%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0855 16.87%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1581 -4.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0228 2.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0016 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0051 0.97%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2366 0.52%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.3586 7.09%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0294 0.06%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6371 -4.54%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.1997 5.47%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0000 0.00%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0043 -0.38%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 1.0000 -5.03%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 360.0000 -11.75%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0384 -1.32%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0310 23.68%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0600 57.40%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0891 51.93%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0421 -180.06%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0446 -63.46%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1251 181.15%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2246 158.64%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1068 67.30%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0298 151.68%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0496 -36.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0454 -5.29%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.4% for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.223) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.529).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4529 3.63%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4354 4.73%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2203 -1.90%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1097 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1201 -0.76%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1680 3.91%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0800 -1.88%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0732 -1.18%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0202 1.96%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0329 -1.01%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0294 0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3301 -0.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1891 0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0303 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0894 3.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1423 -9.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0526 -2.76%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1228 1.06%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0619 -0.56%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0778 -2.77%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0764 1.66%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.1105 -0.20%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0310 0.63%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1606 1.49%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0463 -0.31%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0611 1.13%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0003 -0.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7192 22.82%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0038 -0.06%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.1815 -0.70%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0480 -0.49%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0002 -0.24%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0239 -0.28%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0421 -2.39%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 28.0000 -0.77%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0310 5.23%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0600 9.24%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0891 9.02%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0421 -1.93%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0446 13.21%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1251 11.80%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2246 28.82%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1068 6.32%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0298 11.64%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0496 8.43%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0454 1.56%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,150 for Washington for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40482) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-33331).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4466 -$1,239
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4474 $683
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2274 $51
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1088 $188
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1003 $400
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1921 $289
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0803 -$103
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0729 -$213
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0204 -$51
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0306 -$171
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0279 $298
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3347 -$590
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1815 -$395
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0300 -$65
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0906 $190
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1391 $10
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0500 -$251
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1424 $65
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0580 -$67
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0613 -$313
Veteran -913.8967 0.0690 -$63
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.1214 $190
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0308 $20
Low Income 634.4633 0.1472 $93
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0387 -$136
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0540 $104
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0003 -$3
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7815 -$172
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 8285.0250 $2,164
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0040 $3
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.2392 $109
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0489 -$31
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0003 -$7
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0247 -$29
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0363 $60
Median Days in Program 0.8717 28.0000 $24
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0310 $1,150
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0600 $2,564
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0891 $4,248
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0421 $476
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0446 $2,790
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1251 $8,495
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2246 $11,565
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1068 $4,596
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0298 $1,242
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0496 $2,546
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0454 -$231

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x