Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Nevada

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Nevada in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Nevada in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.7% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.658) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.118).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4960 6.46%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5605 -1.73%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1718 -2.65%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0588 -0.46%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0379 -2.27%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.2203 1.80%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0475 -1.11%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.3740 3.22%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0254 -0.34%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0328 0.16%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0367 -0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5746 -7.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1034 -1.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0379 0.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0785 -0.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1000 1.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0249 -0.36%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2243 4.41%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0537 0.68%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0508 -0.92%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0638 1.85%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0390 -0.12%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1254 -1.18%
Low Income 0.0081 0.6424 0.52%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0299 -0.16%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.2266 3.51%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0017 -0.03%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5469 10.33%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0446 0.07%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0927 -0.14%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0305 0.43%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.6718 4.17%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0006 0.03%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0006 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0119 -0.02%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0136 0.06%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.4271 0.94%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 110.0000 -2.01%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0142 3.03%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0666 5.74%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0420 0.80%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0120 -6.42%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0460 -22.39%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1398 52.52%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.1606 13.22%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.2560 -22.84%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0253 11.45%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0457 10.13%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0423 2.89%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,706 for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 43732) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-38026).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5059 -$1,437
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5748 -$496
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1630 -$512
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0548 -$290
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0304 -$184
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.2259 $53
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0519 -$229
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.3659 -$851
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0289 -$184
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0319 -$86
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0400 $279
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5763 $209
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1015 $84
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0385 -$51
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0785 $443
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1044 $423
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0281 $240
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2593 $250
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0563 $204
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0415 -$41
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0600 -$81
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0407 -$180
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1244 $18
Low Income -332.4067 0.6393 -$212
Homeless -446.4262 0.0244 -$11
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1970 $397
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0022 -$4
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6185 $500
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4614.3800 $1,686
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0407 $82
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0941 $65
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0274 -$70
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.6807 $621
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0007 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0096 -$57
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0126 $11
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.4193 -$86
Median Days in Program 3.2489 107.0000 $348
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0142 $343
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0666 $2,153
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0420 $1,648
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0120 -$580
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0460 $187
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1398 $13,524
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.1606 $9,018
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.2560 $14,763
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0253 $272
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0457 $1,814
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0423 -$258

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 64.0% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.844) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.205).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5241 -18.94%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5717 29.83%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1548 -1.09%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0526 -5.24%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0433 12.66%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.2188 -31.62%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0582 12.41%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.3004 -17.04%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0433 3.69%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0518 10.24%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5859 -7.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1094 -2.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0582 0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0781 -6.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0952 -1.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0206 3.79%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3075 11.22%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0561 -1.71%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0490 -1.28%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0604 1.51%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0334 2.94%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1087 2.32%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1925 15.03%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.5661 -0.07%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1307 0.85%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0043 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.7393 -9.59%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0178 0.88%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0234 -0.67%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.5582 4.09%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 149.0000 5.28%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 81.0000 -1.98%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1911 -0.17%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0142 14.26%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0666 59.46%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0420 50.93%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0120 -52.76%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0460 145.99%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1398 105.89%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.1606 159.42%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.2560 66.08%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0253 83.14%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0457 -0.65%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0423 -57.36%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 83.3% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.848) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.681).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5693 3.39%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4543 0.86%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2861 -0.48%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1150 1.22%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0826 -1.57%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.2094 2.48%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0442 -1.29%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.2153 -0.77%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0177 1.56%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0383 -0.38%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0295 -0.57%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4838 -1.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1416 -2.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0531 -0.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1239 -1.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1357 -1.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0413 -0.50%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1180 1.25%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0501 -0.13%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0501 -0.26%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0767 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0118 -0.30%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1121 0.50%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4572 -2.37%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0029 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0796 3.01%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0118 -0.27%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.7434 8.41%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0265 0.15%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.5457 1.14%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.2124 1.57%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.6814 3.38%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0059 0.48%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.6165 -3.16%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 156.0000 0.13%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0142 -2.88%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0666 -3.11%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0420 -7.17%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0120 -11.92%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0460 -28.87%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1398 -50.36%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.1606 -32.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.2560 -73.01%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0253 7.70%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0457 5.62%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0423 1.74%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,732 for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36642) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-28911).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5751 -$1,093
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4579 $511
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2821 -$36
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1245 -$265
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0623 -$155
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.2125 -$182
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0330 -$154
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.2161 -$332
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0183 -$60
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0366 -$129
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0256 -$95
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4872 -$682
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1392 -$265
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0549 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1282 $196
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1245 $146
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0403 $87
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1282 $218
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0476 $180
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0403 $11
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0842 $122
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0110 -$33
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1026 -$80
Low Income -538.7097 0.4689 -$253
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0037 $29
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0769 $139
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0073 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.7875 $17
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7438.5300 $682
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0183 $25
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.5824 $40
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1685 -$420
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.7106 $125
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0037 -$8
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.6117 -$247
Median Days in Program 2.2222 148.0000 $329
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0142 -$388
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0666 $2,441
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0420 $1,982
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0120 -$3,133
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0460 $3,953
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1398 $13,282
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.1606 $8,216
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.2560 $11,258
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0253 -$115
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0457 $1,019
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0423 -$245

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 64.2% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.006) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.364).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5568 -8.40%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4973 -3.26%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2649 6.39%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1216 5.57%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0703 6.42%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.2108 -14.01%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0378 -2.02%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.2243 -7.39%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0459 12.16%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0378 0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4486 -8.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1324 -3.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0865 -2.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1243 3.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1595 -1.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0378 -1.62%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1135 -0.24%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0324 -0.86%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0270 -3.91%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0730 -6.74%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0162 0.73%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0838 3.09%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0459 2.16%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.7919 2.27%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1135 4.41%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.1838 6.54%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.6730 -4.14%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0054 -2.09%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.7595 -7.31%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 153.0000 -4.92%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 84.0000 -2.30%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1784 2.89%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0142 -11.50%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0666 29.63%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0420 41.40%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0120 -70.66%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0460 56.13%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1398 224.41%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.1606 115.02%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.2560 38.71%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0253 165.22%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0457 -13.03%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0423 -45.81%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 65.0% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.089) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.74).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.4899 2.91%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0067 0.08%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2202 -3.16%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3337 -6.85%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2270 0.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.3315 -2.08%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0348 0.69%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.3292 -1.36%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0236 -1.26%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0404 -1.35%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0719 1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4742 3.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0270 -0.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0056 0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0022 0.11%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1528 4.20%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1427 0.51%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1169 -0.55%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0236 -0.33%
Low Income 0.0375 0.5472 2.05%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0551 -1.11%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1697 1.08%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0157 -0.02%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2056 -1.47%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5416 1.89%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0225 -0.19%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0315 -0.14%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.8449 3.73%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0079 0.06%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0056 -0.02%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0135 0.05%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.6820 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.2169 0.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 177.5000 -0.71%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0142 -9.66%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0666 -12.52%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0420 -5.71%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0120 -8.78%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0460 -9.83%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1398 -35.73%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.1606 0.40%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.2560 -10.10%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0253 -27.30%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0457 15.09%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0423 -6.29%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,829 for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 12992) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-9163).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5143 -$965.57
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1697 -$222.21
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3429 -$365.65
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2471 $160.46
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.3378 $646.40
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0370 $24.02
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2992 -$265.17
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0235 -$79.73
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0353 -$6.51
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0622 $58.03
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5529 $765.24
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0336 -$27.84
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0067 $1.16
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0034 $22.43
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2017 $123.79
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1261 $68.85
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0975 -$48.27
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0252 $61.92
Low Income -305.7985 0.5664 -$173.20
Homeless 983.9044 0.0672 $66.14
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1244 -$159.77
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0185 $18.67
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2034 $173.77
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5193 -$147.22
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0185 -$11.65
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0353 -$16.33
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.8403 $135.44
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0034 -$5.58
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0084 -$4.53
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0168 $1.75
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6521 -$2.83
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.2420 -$6.75
Median Days in Program 0.5942 175.0000 $103.98
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0142 -$45.16
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0666 $732.19
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0420 $905.66
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0120 -$667.62
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0460 $2,061.91
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1398 $1,987.45
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.1606 $3,271.02
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.2560 $1,814.57
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0253 $1,442.54
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0457 $1,993.07
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0423 -$427.03

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 37.2% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.529) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.158).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.4262 -11.76%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0084 -0.68%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3741 -33.76%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2785 -19.49%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1688 -27.69%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.3741 -0.64%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0267 -0.04%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.3812 0.16%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0295 -0.47%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0647 12.76%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3277 -8.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0183 1.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0056 -0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0084 1.60%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1575 0.35%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.4880 9.64%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0028 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.8790 -6.26%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0113 0.62%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0323 -2.87%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.3347 -1.68%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 142.0000 -4.63%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1195 -4.11%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0142 10.86%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0666 63.76%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0420 24.50%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0120 -51.53%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0460 -65.55%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1398 202.35%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.1606 113.41%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.2560 161.26%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0253 128.60%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0457 -33.58%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0423 -4.94%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.6% for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.233) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.497).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4586 3.67%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4351 4.72%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2056 -1.77%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1006 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1125 -0.71%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1953 4.54%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0432 -1.02%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.2587 -4.16%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0211 2.04%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0366 -1.12%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0254 0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5483 -0.94%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1232 0.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0308 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0698 2.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0777 -5.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0192 -1.01%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1303 1.13%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0356 -0.32%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0511 -1.82%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0875 1.90%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0067 0.14%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0875 0.81%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0161 -0.11%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0204 0.38%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0008 -0.02%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7132 22.63%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0098 -0.15%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.2608 -1.00%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0225 -0.20%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0045 0.49%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0022 -0.12%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 30.0000 -0.83%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0142 2.40%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0666 10.26%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0420 4.25%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0120 -0.55%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0460 13.64%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1398 13.18%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.1606 20.60%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.2560 15.15%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0253 9.87%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0457 7.78%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0423 1.46%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,496 for Nevada for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39948) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34452).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4647 -$1,290
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4543 $694
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2061 $46
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0974 $168
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0859 $343
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.2077 $313
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0434 -$56
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.2614 -$765
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0218 -$54
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0358 -$199
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0261 $278
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5525 -$975
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1227 -$267
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0306 -$67
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0706 $148
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0777 $6
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0183 -$92
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1499 $68
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0354 -$41
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0384 -$196
Veteran -913.8967 0.0785 -$72
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0069 $5
Low Income 634.4633 0.0786 $50
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0121 -$42
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0188 $36
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0007 -$7
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7833 -$172
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5916.5450 $1,545
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0066 $5
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.2712 $123
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0230 $6
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0025 $28
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0021 $4
Median Days in Program 0.8717 29.0000 $25
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0142 $528
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0666 $2,848
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0420 $2,004
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0120 $136
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0460 $2,882
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1398 $9,489
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.1606 $8,268
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.2560 $11,013
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0253 $1,053
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0457 $2,349
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0423 -$215

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x