Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Idaho

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Idaho in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Idaho in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 83.5% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.801) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.034).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5808 7.56%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5945 -1.83%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1644 -2.54%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0384 -0.30%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0219 -1.31%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1068 0.87%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0164 -0.38%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0493 0.42%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0082 -0.11%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0411 0.21%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0274 -0.32%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.3863 -4.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.3151 -3.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0274 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0685 -0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0932 1.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0192 -0.27%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3918 7.70%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.2274 2.88%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1781 -3.23%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0822 2.38%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0548 -0.17%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2986 -2.81%
Low Income 0.0081 0.9151 0.74%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0575 -0.31%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1151 1.78%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0438 -0.81%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6164 11.65%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2164 0.34%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.6384 -0.94%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0192 0.27%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0548 -0.27%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0740 -0.15%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0137 0.06%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.4712 1.04%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 261.0000 -4.78%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0358 7.61%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0658 5.67%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0923 1.75%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0130 -6.92%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0447 -21.78%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1262 47.43%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2258 18.60%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1120 -10.00%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0271 12.26%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0611 13.54%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0281 1.92%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,192 for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42086) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34894).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5847 -$1,661
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6166 -$532
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1565 -$492
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0383 -$203
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0128 -$77
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1086 $25
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0192 -$85
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0543 -$126
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0064 -$41
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0447 -$120
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0288 $201
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3706 $134
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.3291 $272
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0288 -$38
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0703 $397
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0990 $401
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0160 $136
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.4089 $395
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.2428 $880
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.1629 -$161
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0831 -$112
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0575 -$254
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2843 $41
Low Income -332.4067 0.9105 -$303
Homeless -446.4262 0.0575 -$26
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1118 $225
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0351 -$68
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6550 $529
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4033.6900 $1,473
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1853 $373
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.6422 $440
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0224 -$57
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0543 $6
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0639 -$378
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0128 $11
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.4824 -$99
Median Days in Program 3.2489 281.0000 $913
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0358 $861
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0658 $2,128
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0923 $3,620
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0130 -$625
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0447 $182
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1262 $12,213
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2258 $12,682
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1120 $6,460
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0271 $292
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0611 $2,425
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0281 -$171

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 45.9% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.213) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.754).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6482 -23.43%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6307 32.91%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1683 -1.18%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0226 -2.26%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0276 8.07%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1658 -23.97%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0126 2.68%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0352 -1.99%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0578 4.92%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0377 7.45%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3568 -4.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2739 -5.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0427 0.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0678 -5.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0854 -1.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0276 5.08%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4648 16.95%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.2789 -8.49%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.1658 -4.33%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0578 1.45%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0528 4.65%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.3241 6.92%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1533 11.97%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7111 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2513 1.64%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0101 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0050 -0.07%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0603 2.97%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0276 -0.79%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.4497 3.29%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 228.0000 8.09%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 202.5000 -4.94%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0302 -0.03%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0358 35.84%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0658 58.76%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0923 111.86%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0130 -56.88%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0447 141.95%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1262 95.63%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2258 224.20%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1120 28.92%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0271 89.04%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0611 -0.87%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0281 -38.05%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 79.8% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.729) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.527).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4885 2.91%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4385 0.83%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3269 -0.55%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1308 1.39%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0615 -1.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0731 0.87%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0462 -1.34%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0192 -0.07%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0192 -0.19%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0154 -0.30%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3346 -0.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2577 -5.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0269 -0.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0769 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1654 -2.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0500 -0.60%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1077 1.14%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0808 -0.21%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.1038 -0.55%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0885 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0615 -1.55%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2385 1.06%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4577 -2.37%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0077 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0615 2.32%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0962 -2.19%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.7769 8.79%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.2346 1.35%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7731 1.61%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1192 0.88%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0692 -0.87%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0231 1.88%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0115 -0.61%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.7000 -3.59%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 160.0000 0.13%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0358 -7.24%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0658 -3.07%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0923 -15.74%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0130 -12.85%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0447 -28.08%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1262 -45.48%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2258 -45.04%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1120 -31.95%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0271 8.24%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0611 7.52%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0281 1.16%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,267 for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 35104) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-26837).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4747 -$902
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4424 $493
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3364 -$42
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1290 -$274
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0507 -$126
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0645 -$55
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0369 -$173
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0184 -$28
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0184 -$65
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0138 -$51
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3318 -$465
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2581 -$491
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0323 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0829 $127
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1613 $189
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0553 $119
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1014 $172
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0922 $349
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0968 $27
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0829 $120
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0553 -$165
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2258 -$177
Low Income -538.7097 0.4516 -$243
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0092 $73
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0645 $117
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0829 $16
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8018 $17
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7542.7700 $691
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1889 $255
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7834 $54
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1106 -$276
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0507 $24
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0184 -$39
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0092 -$39
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.6959 -$281
Median Days in Program 2.2222 154.0000 $342
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0358 -$975
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0658 $2,412
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0923 $4,354
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0130 -$3,377
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0447 $3,843
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1262 $11,995
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2258 $11,555
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1120 $4,927
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0271 -$123
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0611 $1,362
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0281 -$163

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 60.6% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.478) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.872).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5442 -8.21%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5548 -3.63%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2650 6.40%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0919 4.21%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0601 5.49%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1166 -7.75%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0177 -0.94%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0247 -0.81%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0389 10.29%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0177 0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.2898 -5.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2473 -5.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0283 -0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1307 3.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1696 -1.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0424 -1.81%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1307 -0.28%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1625 -4.30%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.1060 -15.35%
Veteran -0.9235 0.1201 -11.09%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0212 0.96%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.2933 10.83%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0813 3.81%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.7986 2.29%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1696 6.58%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0813 2.89%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0106 -0.46%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0071 -2.74%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.7173 -6.91%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 214.5000 -6.89%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 174.0000 -4.76%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0212 0.34%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0358 -28.92%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0658 29.28%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0923 90.93%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0130 -76.18%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0447 54.58%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1262 202.67%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2258 161.76%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1120 16.94%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0271 176.93%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0611 -17.41%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0281 -30.39%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.1% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.246) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.046).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.4934 2.93%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2183 -3.14%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3319 -6.82%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2096 0.22%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.2009 -1.26%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0087 0.17%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0349 -0.14%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0175 -0.93%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0873 -2.92%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0830 1.25%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5284 3.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0568 -1.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0131 0.65%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2969 8.16%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.0044 0.02%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.3362 -1.58%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0349 -0.49%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9258 3.47%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1485 -2.98%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.2882 1.83%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0393 -0.04%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2227 -1.59%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.2489 0.87%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3406 -2.95%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.4847 -2.10%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.0306 0.14%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.1266 -1.91%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0786 0.58%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0480 -0.16%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0044 0.02%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.8690 0.04%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.5197 0.77%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 238.0000 -0.96%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0358 -24.29%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0658 -12.37%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0923 -12.55%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0130 -9.47%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0447 -9.56%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1262 -32.27%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2258 0.56%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1120 -4.42%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0271 -29.24%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0611 20.17%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0281 -4.18%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,986 for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14211) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10225).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.4556 -$855.30
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2056 -$269.08
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3389 -$361.42
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2111 $137.12
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1944 $372.06
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0111 $7.22
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0333 -$29.55
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0111 -$37.65
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0833 -$15.37
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0667 $62.21
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5444 $753.48
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0556 -$46.01
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0167 $111.21
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3000 $184.14
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.0000 $0.00
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.3278 -$162.31
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0389 $95.52
Low Income -305.7985 0.9111 -$278.62
Homeless 983.9044 0.1611 $158.52
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.2667 -$342.58
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0389 $39.27
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2278 $194.64
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.2444 -$69.29
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.3111 -$196.08
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.4833 -$223.58
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.0167 $2.69
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.1056 -$19.43
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0556 -$92.15
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0500 -$26.98
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.8667 -$3.76
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.5222 -$14.56
Median Days in Program 0.5942 231.0000 $137.26
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0358 -$113.52
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0658 $723.59
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0923 $1,989.25
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0130 -$719.77
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0447 $2,004.89
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1262 $1,794.86
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2258 $4,600.28
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1120 $794.07
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0271 $1,544.80
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0611 $2,663.89
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0281 -$283.28

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 39.7% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.438) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.042).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5602 -15.45%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.1391 -12.55%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2594 -18.15%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.2632 -43.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.2444 -0.42%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0414 -0.07%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0263 0.01%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0526 -0.83%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0451 8.90%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.5301 -14.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.1015 10.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0226 -1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0226 4.29%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.0075 0.02%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.2406 4.75%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.2632 0.52%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.0526 -0.37%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.1353 3.71%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0263 1.46%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.4361 -2.19%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 166.0000 -5.42%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0977 -3.36%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0358 27.30%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0658 63.01%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0923 53.80%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0130 -55.56%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0447 -63.73%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1262 182.74%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2258 159.50%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1120 70.57%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0271 137.72%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0611 -44.88%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0281 -3.27%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.4% for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.328) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.603).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4394 3.52%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4271 4.64%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2058 -1.77%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1048 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1091 -0.69%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1188 2.76%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0121 -0.28%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0159 -0.26%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0052 0.50%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0380 -1.16%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0215 0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3641 -0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2312 0.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0172 -0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0646 2.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0955 -6.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0285 -1.50%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1656 1.43%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.1020 -0.92%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.1123 -3.99%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1001 2.17%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0208 -0.04%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1295 2.62%
Low Income 0.0926 0.2986 2.76%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0227 -0.15%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0122 0.23%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0066 -0.15%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7594 24.10%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0680 -1.05%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7755 -2.98%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0299 -0.27%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0158 -0.18%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0053 0.57%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0017 -0.10%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 41.0000 -1.13%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0358 6.03%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0658 10.14%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0923 9.34%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0130 -0.60%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0447 13.27%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1262 11.90%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2258 28.97%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1120 6.63%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0271 10.57%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0611 10.40%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0281 0.97%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,011 for Idaho for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41213) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35202).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4387 -$1,217
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4517 $690
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2123 $47
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1032 $178
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0878 $350
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1253 $189
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0115 -$15
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0168 -$49
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0051 -$13
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0357 -$199
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0213 $228
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3733 -$658
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2358 -$513
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0176 -$38
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0681 $143
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0940 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0256 -$128
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1814 $83
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0880 -$102
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0888 -$453
Veteran -913.8967 0.0969 -$89
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0193 $30
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1284 $85
Low Income 634.4633 0.3086 $196
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0224 -$79
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0113 $22
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0057 -$62
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8436 -$185
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6342.0900 $1,656
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0527 $41
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7968 $362
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0320 $8
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0145 -$17
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0042 $46
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0019 $3
Median Days in Program 0.8717 42.0000 $37
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0358 $1,326
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0658 $2,814
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0923 $4,401
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0130 $147
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0447 $2,802
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1262 $8,569
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2258 $11,628
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1120 $4,819
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0271 $1,128
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0611 $3,140
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0281 -$143

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x