Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Arizona

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Arizona in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Arizona in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.3% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.682) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.031).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5174 6.74%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5127 -1.58%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1966 -3.04%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0954 -0.74%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0714 -4.28%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.3450 2.81%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0204 -0.48%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1776 1.53%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0064 -0.08%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0657 0.33%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0134 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4087 -5.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2262 -2.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0544 0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0670 -0.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1077 1.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0394 -0.56%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3051 5.99%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0685 0.87%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0611 -1.11%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0941 2.73%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0556 -0.17%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2634 -2.48%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5612 0.45%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0476 -0.25%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1000 1.55%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0031 -0.06%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6460 12.21%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2564 0.40%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.4393 -0.65%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0129 0.18%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.2683 1.66%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0056 0.27%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0134 -0.07%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0338 -0.07%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0149 0.07%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.3417 0.75%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 186.0000 -3.40%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0135 2.87%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0584 5.03%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0607 1.15%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0173 -9.21%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0766 -37.28%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1536 57.70%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2219 18.28%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1223 -10.91%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0273 12.37%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0521 11.55%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0489 3.34%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,539 for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42333) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35794).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5148 -$1,463
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5270 -$454
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1952 -$614
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0857 -$453
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0566 -$343
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.3573 $83
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0207 -$91
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1786 -$415
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0059 -$38
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0607 -$163
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0132 $92
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3991 $144
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2386 $197
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0570 -$76
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0684 $386
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1089 $441
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0389 $332
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3507 $338
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0734 $266
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0500 -$49
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0907 -$122
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0561 -$248
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2682 $39
Low Income -332.4067 0.5498 -$183
Homeless -446.4262 0.0393 -$18
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0841 $169
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0027 -$5
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7320 $591
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 5585.8500 $2,040
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.2136 $430
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.4484 $308
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0143 -$37
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.2723 $249
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0066 $100
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0109 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0252 -$149
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0157 $13
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.3493 -$72
Median Days in Program 3.2489 183.0000 $595
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0135 $325
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0584 $1,889
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0607 $2,382
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0173 -$832
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0766 $312
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1536 $14,857
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2219 $12,464
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1223 $7,051
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0273 $294
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0521 $2,068
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0489 -$299

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 55.0% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.888) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.338).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4366 -15.78%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6048 31.56%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1370 -0.96%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0475 -4.74%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0238 6.94%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.3899 -56.36%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0156 3.32%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.1320 -7.49%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0898 7.65%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0127 2.50%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4374 -5.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2334 -4.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0758 0.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0726 -6.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0607 -1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0079 1.46%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.5520 20.13%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0987 -3.01%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0417 -1.09%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0752 1.89%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0314 2.77%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2297 4.90%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1354 10.58%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7120 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1940 1.27%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0074 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4406 -5.71%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0209 1.03%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0137 -0.39%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.1924 1.41%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 278.0000 9.86%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 155.0000 -3.78%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1246 -0.11%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0135 13.53%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0584 52.17%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0607 73.61%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0173 -75.71%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0766 243.01%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1536 116.33%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2219 220.35%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1223 31.56%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0273 89.78%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0521 -0.75%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0489 -66.33%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.2% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.943) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.705).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5071 3.02%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4433 0.84%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2819 -0.48%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1170 1.24%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1206 -2.30%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.3901 4.62%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0301 -0.88%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0833 -0.30%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0089 0.78%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0426 -0.42%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0177 -0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2996 -0.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2340 -4.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0408 -0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0887 -0.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1826 -2.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0851 -1.03%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0603 0.64%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0355 -0.09%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0514 -0.27%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1596 0.09%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0798 -2.01%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2110 0.94%
Low Income -0.0518 0.2890 -1.50%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0071 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0443 1.67%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0638 -1.45%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.7589 8.58%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1862 1.07%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7163 1.49%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0550 0.41%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3582 1.78%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0089 -0.44%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0035 -0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0142 1.15%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0053 -0.28%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.5532 -2.83%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 283.5000 0.23%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0135 -2.73%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0584 -2.73%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0607 -10.36%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0173 -17.10%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0766 -48.06%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1536 -55.32%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2219 -44.27%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1223 -34.87%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0273 8.31%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0521 6.41%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0489 2.02%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,802 for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38103) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29301).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5023 -$955
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4570 $510
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2941 -$37
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0995 -$212
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1109 -$276
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.3914 -$336
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0339 -$159
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0860 -$132
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0113 -$37
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0385 -$135
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0204 -$76
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.2964 -$415
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2330 -$443
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0407 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0905 $138
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1878 $220
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0837 $180
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0633 $108
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0339 $129
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0452 $13
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1448 $209
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0769 -$229
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2081 -$163
Low Income -538.7097 0.2805 -$151
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0045 $36
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0407 $74
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0430 $8
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.7851 $17
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9440.6200 $865
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1765 $238
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7149 $49
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0566 -$141
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3462 $61
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0090 $60
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0045 $2
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0113 -$24
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0068 -$29
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.5452 -$220
Median Days in Program 2.2222 249.0000 $553
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0135 -$368
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0584 $2,142
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0607 $2,865
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0173 -$4,496
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0766 $6,580
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1536 $14,591
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2219 $11,357
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1223 $5,377
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0273 -$124
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0521 $1,161
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0489 -$284

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.1% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.719) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.047).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4757 -7.18%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5081 -3.33%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2751 6.64%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1036 4.74%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0939 8.58%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.2848 -18.93%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0291 -1.56%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1197 -3.94%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0485 12.85%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0194 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3689 -7.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2104 -5.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0615 -1.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1036 2.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1327 -1.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0583 -2.49%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1100 -0.24%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0518 -1.37%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0324 -4.69%
Veteran -0.9235 0.1230 -11.36%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0162 0.73%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.2006 7.41%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0744 3.49%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.7411 2.12%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1586 6.15%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0421 1.50%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.4239 -2.61%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0065 -0.28%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0065 -2.51%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.3430 -3.30%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 231.5000 -7.44%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 121.0000 -3.31%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1845 2.99%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0135 -10.92%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0584 26.00%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0607 59.83%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0173 -101.40%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0766 93.44%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1536 246.54%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2219 158.98%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1223 18.49%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0273 178.41%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0521 -14.85%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0489 -52.97%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.5% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.177) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.932).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5314 3.16%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0210 0.26%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1600 -2.30%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3281 -6.74%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2357 0.25%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.5752 -3.61%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0148 0.29%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.1033 -0.43%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0067 -0.36%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0929 -3.10%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0219 0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5062 3.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0395 -1.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0105 1.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0100 0.49%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2576 7.08%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1005 0.36%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1095 -0.51%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0619 -0.86%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8286 3.11%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0881 -1.77%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1200 0.76%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0371 -0.04%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2286 -1.64%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.6371 2.23%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3886 -3.37%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.2743 -1.19%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.6310 2.79%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0681 5.22%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0110 -0.17%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0233 0.17%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0114 -0.04%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0114 0.04%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.4895 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0962 0.14%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 322.0000 -1.29%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0135 -9.17%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0584 -10.99%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0607 -8.26%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0173 -12.60%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0766 -16.37%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1536 -39.25%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2219 0.55%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1223 -4.82%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0273 -29.48%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0521 17.20%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0489 -7.28%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $4,648 for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15912) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11264).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5405 -$1,014.83
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0190 -$1.76
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1438 -$188.19
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3298 -$351.73
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2410 $156.54
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.6018 $1,151.58
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0148 $9.62
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0951 -$84.33
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0070 -$23.88
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0733 -$13.52
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0190 $17.75
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5335 $738.30
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0430 -$35.60
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0120 $2.07
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0113 $75.23
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3023 $185.56
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.0888 $48.50
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0916 -$45.37
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0719 $176.56
Low Income -305.7985 0.8414 -$257.31
Homeless 983.9044 0.0937 $92.22
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1163 -$149.38
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0338 $34.16
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2262 $193.30
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.6258 -$177.40
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.3354 -$211.42
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.2629 -$121.60
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.6357 $102.45
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0613 $173.09
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0099 -$1.82
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0218 -$36.24
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0099 -$5.32
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0155 $1.62
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.4905 -$2.13
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0958 -$2.67
Median Days in Program 0.5942 317.0000 $188.36
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0135 -$42.86
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0584 $642.42
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0607 $1,308.91
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0173 -$958.06
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0766 $3,432.19
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1536 $2,183.39
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2219 $4,521.24
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1223 $866.62
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0273 $1,557.73
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0521 $2,272.24
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0489 -$493.79

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 55.2% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.706) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.154).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5655 -15.60%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0142 -1.15%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.1679 -15.16%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3075 -21.52%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.2423 -39.75%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.6045 -1.03%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0142 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0941 0.04%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0926 -1.46%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0263 5.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.4487 -12.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0400 4.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0076 -0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0071 1.35%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1108 0.24%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6161 12.17%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.1168 0.23%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.7208 -5.14%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0359 0.98%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0248 1.37%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0278 -2.47%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0486 -0.24%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 174.0000 -5.68%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0870 -2.99%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0135 10.31%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0584 55.94%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0607 35.40%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0173 -73.95%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0766 -109.11%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1536 222.30%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2219 156.76%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1223 77.02%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0273 138.87%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0521 -38.28%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0489 -5.71%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.8% for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.448) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.769).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4373 3.50%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4327 4.70%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2241 -1.93%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1180 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1197 -0.75%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.4463 10.38%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0106 -0.25%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0950 -1.53%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0051 0.50%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.1115 -3.41%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0084 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3880 -0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1772 0.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0464 -0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0483 1.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0655 -4.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0250 -1.31%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0751 0.65%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0286 -0.26%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0594 -2.11%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1188 2.58%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.1114 -0.21%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1992 4.04%
Low Income 0.0926 0.2720 2.52%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0324 -0.22%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0581 1.07%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0037 -0.09%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7257 23.03%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.1177 -1.81%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6988 -2.69%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0095 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0188 -0.22%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0220 2.39%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0093 -0.53%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 42.0000 -1.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0135 2.28%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0584 9.00%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0607 6.15%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0173 -0.79%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0766 22.71%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1536 14.48%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2219 28.48%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1223 7.24%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0273 10.66%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0521 8.87%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0489 1.68%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,660 for Arizona for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42453) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36793).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4365 -$1,211
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4441 $678
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2323 $52
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1150 $198
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0982 $392
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.4674 $704
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0097 -$12
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0976 -$286
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0049 -$12
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.1073 -$597
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0074 $79
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3842 -$678
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1770 -$385
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0480 -$105
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0494 $104
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0664 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0235 -$118
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.0834 $38
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0265 -$31
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0460 -$235
Veteran -913.8967 0.1094 -$100
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.1184 $185
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1955 $129
Low Income 634.4633 0.2579 $164
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0267 -$94
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0511 $98
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0033 -$36
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8105 -$178
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5898.8750 $1,540
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0873 $67
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7231 $329
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0084 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0176 -$21
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0157 $171
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0091 $15
Median Days in Program 0.8717 41.0000 $36
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0135 $501
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0584 $2,499
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0607 $2,896
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0173 $195
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0766 $4,796
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1536 $10,424
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2219 $11,428
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1223 $5,259
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0273 $1,137
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0521 $2,678
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0489 -$249

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x