Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Vermont

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Vermont in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Vermont in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.9% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.646) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.094).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5082 6.62%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.6120 -1.89%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.2022 -3.12%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0328 -0.26%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0328 -1.97%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0273 0.22%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0437 -1.02%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0546 0.47%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0164 0.08%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0164 -0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5355 -6.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2240 -2.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0219 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0164 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0656 1.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0219 -0.31%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3005 5.90%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0492 0.62%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.3388 -6.14%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0273 0.79%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0820 -0.25%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.3115 -2.94%
Low Income 0.0081 0.8361 0.68%
Homeless -0.0534 0.1038 -0.55%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.2787 4.32%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0219 -0.40%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6011 11.36%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2787 0.44%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.3607 -0.53%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0164 0.23%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.3716 2.31%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0656 -0.32%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0874 -0.18%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.1475 0.65%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7049 1.55%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 162.0000 -2.97%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0133 2.83%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0528 4.55%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0994 1.89%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0146 -7.79%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0396 -19.29%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1001 37.62%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2737 22.54%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1255 -11.20%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0292 13.20%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0618 13.69%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0235 1.60%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,606 for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41492) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35886).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4511 -$1,282
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6165 -$532
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.2030 -$638
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0376 -$199
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0226 -$137
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0376 $9
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0451 -$199
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0677 -$157
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0150 -$40
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0150 $105
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5188 $188
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2481 $205
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0301 -$40
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0150 $85
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0376 $152
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0226 $193
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3609 $348
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0451 $163
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.2932 -$290
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0226 -$30
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0977 -$432
Single Parent 145.7630 0.3083 $45
Low Income -332.4067 0.8271 -$275
Homeless -446.4262 0.0977 -$44
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.2556 $515
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0301 -$59
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6767 $547
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4471.2300 $1,633
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.2406 $484
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.3759 $258
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0150 -$39
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.3985 $364
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0451 $5
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0301 -$178
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.1278 $107
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7293 -$150
Median Days in Program 3.2489 154.5000 $502
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0133 $320
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0528 $1,707
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0994 $3,900
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0146 -$704
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0396 $162
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1001 $9,686
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2737 $15,373
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1255 $7,238
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0292 $314
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0618 $2,451
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0235 -$143

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 52.0% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.33) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.81).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4621 -16.70%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6621 34.55%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1172 -0.82%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0345 -3.44%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0414 12.09%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0276 -3.99%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0207 4.41%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0897 -5.08%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0138 1.18%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0207 4.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4414 -5.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1862 -3.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0345 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0345 -2.95%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1448 -2.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0138 2.54%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3793 13.83%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0690 -2.10%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.2759 -7.20%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0276 0.69%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0276 2.43%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.3379 7.21%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1931 15.08%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6276 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2207 1.44%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0207 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4276 -5.54%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0552 2.72%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.1379 -3.93%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.6483 4.74%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 168.0000 5.96%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 98.0000 -2.39%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1586 -0.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0133 13.33%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0528 47.16%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0994 120.52%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0146 -64.07%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0396 125.76%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1001 75.84%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2737 271.76%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1255 32.40%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0292 95.87%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0618 -0.88%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0235 -31.84%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 83.0% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.702) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.533).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.3704 2.21%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3889 0.74%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3148 -0.53%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1111 1.18%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1667 -3.18%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0370 0.44%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0370 -1.08%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0185 -0.07%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3889 -1.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.0741 -1.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0185 -0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0370 -0.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2778 -4.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.1296 -1.57%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0185 0.20%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0741 -0.19%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0000 0.00%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0926 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0370 -0.93%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2037 0.91%
Low Income -0.0518 0.0741 -0.38%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0185 -0.42%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8889 10.05%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1111 0.64%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.5741 1.20%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0370 0.27%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.2407 1.20%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0185 -0.23%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0185 1.51%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0185 -0.98%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.7407 -3.80%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 194.0000 0.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0133 -2.69%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0528 -2.47%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0994 -16.96%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0146 -14.47%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0396 -24.87%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1001 -36.07%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2737 -54.59%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1255 -35.80%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0292 8.87%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0618 7.60%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0235 0.97%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $10,119 for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36345) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-26226).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.3333 -$634
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3958 $442
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3333 -$42
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1250 -$266
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1250 -$312
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0417 -$36
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0208 -$98
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0208 -$32
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0000 $0
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3958 -$554
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.0625 -$119
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0208 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0208 $32
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2708 $317
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.1458 $314
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0208 $35
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0625 $237
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0000 $0
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0833 $120
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0208 -$62
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2083 -$163
Low Income -538.7097 0.0625 -$34
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8958 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 12215.6700 $1,120
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0833 $112
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.5625 $39
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0417 -$104
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1875 $33
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0208 -$44
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0208 -$88
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.7292 -$294
Median Days in Program 2.2222 177.0000 $393
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0133 -$363
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0528 $1,936
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0994 $4,690
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0146 -$3,804
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0396 $3,405
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1001 $9,513
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2737 $14,007
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1255 $5,520
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0292 -$133
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0618 $1,377
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0235 -$136

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 61.7% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.898) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.282).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5072 -7.65%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.3188 -2.09%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3623 8.75%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1014 4.65%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.2029 18.54%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0145 -0.96%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0145 3.84%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0145 0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3913 -7.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1739 -4.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0290 -0.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0870 2.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2174 -2.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0435 -1.86%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0870 -0.19%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0290 -0.77%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0725 -10.49%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0580 -5.35%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0145 0.65%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1304 4.81%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0580 2.72%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8551 2.45%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1594 6.19%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0435 1.55%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2754 -1.69%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0435 -1.89%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.6522 -6.28%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 199.0000 -6.39%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 132.0000 -3.61%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0580 0.94%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0133 -10.76%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0528 23.50%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0994 97.96%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0146 -85.81%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0396 48.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1001 160.73%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2737 196.07%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1255 18.98%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0292 190.50%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0618 -17.60%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0235 -25.42%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.7% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -0.998) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.715).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.4423 2.63%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1923 -2.76%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3782 -7.77%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2756 0.29%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0449 -0.28%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0128 0.25%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0577 -0.24%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0064 -0.21%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0128 0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4679 3.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0256 -0.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0064 0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1154 3.17%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.0577 0.21%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.6090 -2.85%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0321 -0.45%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9231 3.46%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0897 -1.80%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.3205 2.03%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0641 -0.06%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1731 -1.24%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.4872 1.70%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3590 -3.11%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.3013 -1.30%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.4551 2.01%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0385 -0.58%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0641 0.48%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0962 -0.33%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0064 0.02%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.9167 0.05%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.4423 0.66%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 273.0000 -1.10%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0133 -9.03%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0528 -9.93%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0994 -13.52%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0146 -10.67%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0396 -8.47%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1001 -25.59%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2737 0.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1255 -4.95%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0292 -31.48%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0618 20.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0235 -3.49%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,978 for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14303) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10325).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.4510 -$846.71
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1569 -$205.34
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.4118 -$439.14
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2549 $165.56
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0490 $93.80
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0196 $12.74
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0588 -$52.14
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0098 -$1.81
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0098 $9.15
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5490 $759.81
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0294 -$24.36
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0098 $1.70
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1471 $90.26
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.0294 $16.06
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.5882 -$291.28
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0392 $96.33
Low Income -305.7985 0.9314 -$284.81
Homeless 983.9044 0.0882 $86.82
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.2941 -$377.84
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0686 $69.30
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1765 $150.80
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5098 -$144.52
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.3235 -$203.91
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.3235 -$149.66
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.4804 $77.43
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0294 -$5.41
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0490 -$81.31
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0980 -$52.91
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.8922 -$3.87
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.4216 -$11.75
Median Days in Program 0.5942 327.0000 $194.30
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0133 -$42.23
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0528 $580.69
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0994 $2,143.11
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0146 -$810.76
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0396 $1,776.18
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1001 $1,423.45
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2737 $5,576.10
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1255 $889.69
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0292 $1,663.27
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0618 $2,693.27
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0235 -$237.01

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 36.9% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.343) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.974).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.3645 -10.05%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0093 -0.76%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.4486 -40.49%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3645 -25.51%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1215 -19.93%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0280 -0.05%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0280 -0.05%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0748 0.03%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0374 -0.59%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0654 12.91%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1963 -5.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0093 0.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0093 1.78%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1215 0.27%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6916 13.67%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.1028 0.20%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.2243 -1.60%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0374 1.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0654 3.62%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.2991 -1.50%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 224.0000 -7.31%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1215 -4.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0133 10.15%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0528 50.57%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0994 57.96%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0146 -62.58%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0396 -56.46%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1001 144.93%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2737 193.34%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1255 79.07%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0292 148.28%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0618 -45.37%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0235 -2.74%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 63.7% for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.276) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.639).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.3910 3.13%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4170 4.53%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2150 -1.85%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1200 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1385 -0.87%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0256 0.60%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0074 -0.17%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0420 -0.68%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0008 0.07%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0158 -0.48%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0159 0.39%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5342 -0.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1404 0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0130 -0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0292 1.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0684 -4.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0216 -1.13%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1793 1.55%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.1064 -0.96%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.1914 -6.81%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0802 1.74%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0144 -0.03%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1453 2.95%
Low Income 0.0926 0.3654 3.38%
Homeless -0.0667 0.1243 -0.83%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.1206 2.23%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0093 -0.21%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6622 21.02%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.1036 -1.60%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6212 -2.39%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0028 -0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0235 -0.27%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0415 4.52%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0154 -0.88%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 53.0000 -1.46%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0133 2.24%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0528 8.14%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0994 10.07%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0146 -0.67%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0396 11.75%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1001 9.44%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2737 35.12%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1255 7.43%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0292 11.38%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0618 10.51%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0235 0.81%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,082 for Vermont for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40908) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35827).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.3864 -$1,072
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4227 $645
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2219 $50
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1192 $206
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1249 $498
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0242 $36
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0074 -$9
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0451 -$132
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0005 -$1
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0126 -$70
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0138 $147
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5417 -$955
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1479 -$322
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0138 -$30
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0263 $55
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0703 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0202 -$101
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1958 $89
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.1130 -$131
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.1429 -$730
Veteran -913.8967 0.0800 -$73
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0147 $23
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1500 $99
Low Income 634.4633 0.3188 $202
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0980 -$344
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0954 $183
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0093 -$100
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7982 -$175
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5921.2500 $1,546
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0698 $54
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.6478 $295
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0028 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0176 -$21
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0252 $274
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0135 $22
Median Days in Program 0.8717 52.0000 $45
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0133 $493
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0528 $2,258
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0994 $4,742
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0146 $165
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0396 $2,482
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1001 $6,796
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2737 $14,094
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1255 $5,400
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0292 $1,214
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0618 $3,174
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0235 -$120

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x