Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for New York

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for New York in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for New York in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.2% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.661) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.052).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4767 6.21%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4763 -1.47%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1669 -2.58%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0776 -0.60%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0716 -4.29%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1890 1.54%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0446 -1.04%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.3727 3.21%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0071 -0.09%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0165 0.08%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0237 -0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.3929 -4.94%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1990 -2.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0234 0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0918 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1159 2.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0414 -0.59%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2130 4.18%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0997 1.26%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0705 -1.28%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0557 1.62%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0157 -0.05%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0564 -0.53%
Low Income 0.0081 0.2696 0.22%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0262 -0.14%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0260 0.40%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0052 -0.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6467 12.22%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0073 0.01%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.2374 -0.35%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0005 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0127 0.08%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0003 0.02%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0361 -0.18%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0246 -0.05%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0274 0.12%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9927 2.19%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 45.0000 -0.82%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0033 0.71%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0426 3.67%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0464 0.88%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0299 -15.93%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0768 -37.40%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1439 54.07%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2808 23.13%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1021 -9.11%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0392 17.75%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0567 12.56%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0392 2.67%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,802 for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40944) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35142).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4834 -$1,373
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4926 -$425
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1622 -$510
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0705 -$373
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0545 -$330
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1863 $43
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0434 -$192
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.3767 -$876
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0068 -$43
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0154 -$41
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0225 $157
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3914 $142
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2089 $173
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0217 -$29
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0989 $558
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1224 $496
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0412 $352
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2560 $247
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1048 $380
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0527 -$52
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0525 -$71
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0140 -$62
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0561 $8
Low Income -332.4067 0.2459 -$82
Homeless -446.4262 0.0217 -$10
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0222 $45
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0046 -$9
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7526 $608
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 5418.0000 $1,979
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0042 $8
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.2622 $180
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0005 -$1
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0115 $10
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0003 $5
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0316 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0178 -$105
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0250 $21
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9922 -$204
Median Days in Program 3.2489 45.0000 $146
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0033 $81
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0426 $1,377
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0464 $1,821
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0299 -$1,440
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0768 $313
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1439 $13,922
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2808 $15,773
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1021 $5,890
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0392 $422
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0567 $2,248
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0392 -$239

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 30.1% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.04) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.738).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4701 -16.99%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5089 26.55%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1366 -0.96%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0539 -5.38%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0480 14.03%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1289 -18.63%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0306 6.53%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2500 -14.18%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0107 0.91%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0166 3.28%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4472 -5.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2160 -3.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0318 0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.1071 -9.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1137 -2.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0240 4.41%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4121 15.03%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1202 -3.66%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0731 -1.91%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0473 1.19%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0140 1.24%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.0875 1.87%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0399 3.11%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7603 -0.10%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0107 0.07%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0081 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0894 -1.16%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0185 0.91%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0310 -0.88%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9845 7.21%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 123.0000 4.36%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 67.0000 -1.63%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.2422 -0.21%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0033 3.35%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0426 38.03%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0464 56.26%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0299 -131.00%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0768 243.78%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1439 109.01%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2808 278.84%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1021 26.37%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0392 128.89%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0567 -0.81%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0392 -53.12%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 66.7% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2.053) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.72).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5017 2.99%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4834 0.92%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2183 -0.37%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1059 1.12%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1266 -2.41%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1858 2.20%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0471 -1.37%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.2444 -0.88%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0060 0.53%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0105 -0.10%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0056 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2998 -0.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2016 -3.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0090 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1008 -0.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1930 -2.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0903 -1.09%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0597 0.63%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0447 -0.11%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0383 -0.20%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0480 0.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0147 -0.37%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0424 0.19%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1620 -0.84%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0086 0.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0141 0.53%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0093 -0.21%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9098 10.29%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0014 0.01%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.8442 1.76%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0115 0.08%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0144 0.07%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0141 -0.18%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0096 0.78%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0143 -0.76%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9976 -5.11%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 82.0000 0.07%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0033 -0.68%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0426 -1.99%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0464 -7.92%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0299 -29.59%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0768 -48.22%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1439 -51.84%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2808 -56.02%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1021 -29.13%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0392 11.93%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0567 6.97%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0392 1.61%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,139 for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 34821) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-27682).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5079 -$966
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.5150 $574
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2233 -$28
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1019 -$217
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0847 -$211
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1871 -$160
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0424 -$199
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.2562 -$394
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0062 -$20
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0106 -$37
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0058 -$21
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3007 -$421
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2044 -$389
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0092 $1
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1057 $161
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1951 $228
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0878 $189
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0708 $120
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0469 $178
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0334 $9
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0435 $63
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0144 -$43
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0461 -$36
Low Income -538.7097 0.1666 -$90
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0085 $67
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0148 $27
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0094 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9346 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 8788.0000 $806
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0012 $2
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.8374 $58
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0095 -$24
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0139 $2
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0138 $6
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0082 -$17
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0148 -$62
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9973 -$402
Median Days in Program 2.2222 77.0000 $171
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0033 -$91
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0426 $1,561
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0464 $2,190
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0299 -$7,779
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0768 $6,601
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1439 $13,673
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2808 $14,371
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1021 $4,492
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0392 -$178
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0567 $1,263
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0392 -$227

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 35.5% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.789) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.433).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5598 -8.45%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4266 -2.79%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2400 5.80%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1300 5.95%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.1158 10.59%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1338 -8.90%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0405 -2.16%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1853 -6.10%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0090 2.38%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0097 0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3398 -6.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2323 -5.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0174 -0.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1242 3.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1828 -2.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0598 -2.56%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1229 -0.26%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.1014 -2.68%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0495 -7.18%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0463 -4.28%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0071 0.32%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0734 2.71%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0290 1.36%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8700 2.49%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0097 0.37%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0199 0.71%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0586 -0.36%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0116 -0.50%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0206 -7.97%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9884 -9.52%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 157.0000 -5.04%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 73.0000 -2.00%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1692 2.74%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0033 -2.70%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0426 18.95%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0464 45.73%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0299 -175.46%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0768 93.73%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1439 231.03%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2808 201.18%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1021 15.45%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0392 256.13%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0567 -16.15%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0392 -42.43%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.2% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.215) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.906).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5213 3.10%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0174 0.21%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2323 -3.34%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.2955 -6.07%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2193 0.23%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.2176 -1.37%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0574 1.14%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.3620 -1.50%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0024 -0.13%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0104 -0.35%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0171 0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4032 2.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0277 -0.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0067 0.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0108 0.54%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.0829 2.28%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2504 0.89%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1774 -0.83%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0443 -0.62%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8072 3.03%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0429 -0.86%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0566 0.36%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0130 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1275 -0.91%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5780 2.02%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0012 -0.01%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0092 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.6358 2.81%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0299 -0.45%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0340 0.25%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0412 -0.14%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0024 0.01%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2273 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.3495 0.52%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 197.0000 -0.79%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0033 -2.27%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0426 -8.01%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0464 -6.31%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0299 -21.81%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0768 -16.42%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1439 -36.78%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2808 0.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1021 -4.03%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0392 -42.33%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0567 18.71%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0392 -5.83%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,272 for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15414) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-12142).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5332 -$1,001.13
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0109 -$1.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1937 -$253.59
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3089 -$329.44
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2239 $145.44
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.2151 $411.51
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0395 $25.64
Race: Black -886.3703 0.3681 -$326.28
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0028 -$9.55
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0113 -$2.08
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0157 $14.66
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4527 $626.48
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0350 -$29.02
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0077 $1.32
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0137 $91.37
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1140 $69.96
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2118 $115.71
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1780 -$88.15
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0387 $94.97
Low Income -305.7985 0.7841 -$239.79
Homeless 983.9044 0.0411 $40.42
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0596 -$76.57
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0113 $11.39
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1301 $111.16
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5558 -$157.55
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0117 -$5.40
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.6126 $98.73
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0238 -$4.37
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0278 -$46.10
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0411 -$22.17
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0032 $0.34
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2316 -$1.00
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.3838 -$10.70
Median Days in Program 0.5942 190.0000 $112.90
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0033 -$10.61
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0426 $468.33
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0464 $1,000.42
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0299 -$1,657.75
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0768 $3,443.08
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1439 $2,046.02
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2808 $5,721.34
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1021 $724.02
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0392 $2,236.24
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0567 $2,470.44
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0392 -$395.50

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 58.1% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.556) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.975).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5560 -15.34%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0779 -6.31%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3763 -33.96%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.1765 -12.35%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1695 -27.80%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.3116 -0.53%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0967 -0.16%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.3989 0.17%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0118 -0.19%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0134 2.65%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3430 -9.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0107 1.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0110 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0054 1.02%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.4443 0.98%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7609 15.04%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0051 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.9178 -6.54%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0196 0.54%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0199 1.10%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0048 -0.43%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.1179 -0.59%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 269.0000 -8.78%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0371 -1.28%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0033 2.55%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0426 40.78%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0464 27.06%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0299 -127.96%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0768 -109.45%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1439 208.31%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2808 198.37%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1021 64.34%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0392 199.36%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0567 -41.62%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0392 -4.57%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.7% for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.335) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.658).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4724 3.78%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4671 5.07%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1878 -1.62%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0896 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0981 -0.62%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1918 4.46%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0458 -1.08%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.3073 -4.95%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0065 0.63%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0133 -0.41%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0138 0.34%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3473 -0.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1985 0.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0155 -0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0940 3.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1547 -10.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0660 -3.46%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1298 1.12%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0730 -0.66%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0536 -1.91%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0498 1.08%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0153 -0.03%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0487 0.99%
Low Income 0.0926 0.2091 1.94%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0167 -0.11%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0197 0.36%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0072 -0.17%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7790 24.72%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0040 -0.06%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.5555 -2.14%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0063 -0.06%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0138 -0.14%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0002 -0.15%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0226 -0.26%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0166 1.80%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0200 -1.14%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 70.0000 -1.93%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0033 0.56%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0426 6.56%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0464 4.70%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0299 -1.37%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0768 22.78%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1439 13.57%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2808 36.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1021 6.05%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0392 15.30%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0567 9.64%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0392 1.35%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,401 for New York for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42241) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35840).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4786 -$1,328
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4911 $750
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1879 $42
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0839 $145
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0683 $272
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1913 $288
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0428 -$55
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.3169 -$928
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0065 -$16
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0129 -$72
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0135 $144
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3483 -$614
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2048 -$446
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0150 -$33
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0999 $209
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1582 $12
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0641 -$321
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1578 $72
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0764 -$88
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0430 -$220
Veteran -913.8967 0.0458 -$42
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0143 $22
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0506 $33
Low Income 634.4633 0.2017 $128
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0149 -$52
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0184 $35
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0070 -$76
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8413 -$185
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7048.0000 $1,841
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0025 $2
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.5578 $254
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0051 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0129 -$8
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0002 -$4
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0208 -$24
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0128 $139
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0192 $32
Median Days in Program 0.8717 63.0000 $55
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0033 $124
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0426 $1,821
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0464 $2,213
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0299 $338
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0768 $4,812
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1439 $9,768
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2808 $14,461
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1021 $4,394
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0392 $1,632
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0567 $2,912
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0392 -$199

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x