Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Puerto Rico

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Puerto Rico in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Puerto Rico in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 79.9% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.79) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.01).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6883 8.96%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4842 -1.49%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1410 -2.18%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0395 -0.31%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0274 -1.64%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.9994 8.15%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0013 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.6764 5.82%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0023 -0.03%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0084 0.04%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.6409 -7.58%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.6246 -7.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.0618 -0.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0706 -0.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1003 1.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0173 -0.25%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.0409 0.80%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0545 0.69%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0138 -0.25%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0022 0.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.5473 -1.68%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1166 -1.10%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7733 0.63%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0002 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.0000 0.00%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0696 -0.10%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0100 0.14%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0067 0.04%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0008 0.04%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0297 -0.15%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0033 -0.01%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0198 0.09%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9998 2.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 122.0000 -2.23%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0116 2.46%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0308 2.66%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0851 1.62%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0190 -10.14%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0502 -24.41%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1435 53.94%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2026 16.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0891 -7.95%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0128 5.81%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.1414 31.33%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0845 5.76%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,510 for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38463) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34953).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6883 -$1,956
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.4842 -$417
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1410 -$443
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0395 -$209
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0274 -$166
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.9994 $232
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0013 -$6
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.6764 -$1,573
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0023 -$15
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0084 -$22
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.6409 $4,476
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.6246 $226
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.0618 $51
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0706 $398
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1003 $406
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0173 $148
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.0409 $40
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0545 $198
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0138 -$14
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0022 -$3
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.5473 -$2,419
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1166 $17
Low Income -332.4067 0.7733 -$257
Homeless -446.4262 0.0002 -$0
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.0000 $0
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 0.0000 $0
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0696 $48
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0100 -$26
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0067 $6
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0008 $13
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0297 $3
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0033 -$20
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0198 $17
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9998 -$205
Median Days in Program 3.2489 122.0000 $396
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0116 $279
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0308 $997
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0851 $3,340
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0190 -$917
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0502 $204
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1435 $13,889
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2026 $11,376
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0891 $5,137
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0128 $138
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.1414 $5,610
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0845 -$516

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 24.0% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.726) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.487).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6883 -24.88%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.4842 25.27%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1410 -0.99%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0395 -3.94%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0274 8.00%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.9994 -144.46%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0013 0.27%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.6764 -38.36%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0084 0.71%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.6409 126.64%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.6246 -7.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.0618 -1.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0706 -6.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1003 -2.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0173 3.19%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.0409 1.49%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0545 -1.66%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0138 -0.36%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0022 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.5473 48.22%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1166 2.49%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.0000 0.00%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0000 0.00%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0100 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0067 -0.09%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0033 0.16%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0198 -0.57%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9998 7.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 122.0000 4.33%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 0.0000 0.00%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0000 0.00%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0116 11.59%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0308 27.53%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0851 103.22%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0190 -83.39%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0502 159.14%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1435 108.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2026 201.11%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0891 22.99%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0128 42.18%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.1414 -2.02%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0845 -114.52%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.5% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.888) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.603).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.6339 3.78%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.5576 1.06%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2006 -0.34%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.0573 0.61%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0358 -0.68%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.9993 11.84%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0012 -0.04%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.6196 -2.22%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0010 0.09%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0094 -0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.5879 -11.45%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.5825 -1.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.0556 -1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0902 -0.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1329 -1.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0212 -0.26%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0057 0.06%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0346 -0.09%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0133 -0.07%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0023 0.00%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.6230 -15.71%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0479 0.21%
Low Income -0.0518 0.8090 -4.19%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0002 0.01%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0222 -0.51%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.0000 0.00%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.2636 0.55%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1304 0.96%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0002 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0410 -0.52%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0044 0.36%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0089 -0.47%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 147.0000 0.12%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0116 -2.34%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0308 -1.44%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0851 -14.53%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0190 -18.84%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0502 -31.48%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1435 -51.72%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2026 -40.40%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0891 -25.41%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0128 3.90%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.1414 17.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0845 3.48%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,012 for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 26692) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-19680).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.6339 -$1,205
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.5576 $622
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2006 -$25
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0573 -$122
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0358 -$89
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.9993 -$857
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0012 -$6
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.6196 -$952
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0010 -$3
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0094 -$33
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.5879 -$2,182
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.5825 -$816
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.0556 -$106
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0902 $138
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1329 $155
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0212 $46
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0057 $10
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0346 $131
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0133 $4
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0023 $3
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.6230 -$1,854
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0479 -$38
Low Income -538.7097 0.8090 -$436
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0002 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0222 $4
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.0000 $0
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 0.0000 $0
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.2636 $18
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1304 -$325
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0002 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0410 $19
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0044 -$9
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0089 -$38
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 147.0000 $327
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0116 -$315
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0308 $1,130
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0851 $4,017
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0190 -$4,952
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0502 $4,309
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1435 $13,640
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2026 $10,365
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0891 $3,918
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0128 -$58
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.1414 $3,150
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0845 -$490

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 16.5% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 2.959) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.795).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.6339 -9.57%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5576 -3.65%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2006 4.84%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0573 2.62%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0358 3.27%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.9993 -66.41%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0012 -0.07%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.6196 -20.40%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0094 2.48%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.5879 2.95%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.5825 -11.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.0556 -1.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0902 2.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1329 -1.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0212 -0.91%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0057 -0.01%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0346 -0.91%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0133 -1.93%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0023 -0.21%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.6230 28.12%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0479 1.77%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0002 0.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.0000 0.00%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0000 0.00%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.1304 4.64%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0002 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0044 -0.19%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0089 -3.44%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 1.0000 -9.63%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 147.0000 -4.72%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 0.0000 0.00%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0000 0.00%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0116 -9.35%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0308 13.72%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0851 83.90%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0190 -111.69%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0502 61.19%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1435 230.47%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2026 145.10%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0891 13.47%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0128 83.82%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.1414 -40.28%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0845 -91.46%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 70.6% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -0.745) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.452).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5148 3.06%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0541 0.66%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.4325 -6.21%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3514 -7.22%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1606 0.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.9999 -6.28%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0023 0.05%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.6922 -2.86%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0017 -0.09%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0087 -0.29%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.6296 9.49%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4298 2.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0346 -1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0016 0.08%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.0024 0.07%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.4517 1.61%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0239 -0.11%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.6858 -9.54%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9951 3.73%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0006 -0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0016 0.01%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0073 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.0463 -0.33%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.6638 2.32%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0027 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.9160 4.05%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0086 -0.13%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0077 0.06%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0086 -0.03%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2934 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.7292 1.08%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 107.0000 -0.43%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0116 -7.86%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0308 -5.80%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0851 -11.58%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0190 -13.88%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0502 -10.72%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1435 -36.70%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2026 0.50%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0891 -3.51%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0128 -13.85%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.1414 46.67%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0845 -12.57%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,185 for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 18465) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-15280).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5148 -$966.61
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0541 -$4.99
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.4325 -$566.20
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3514 -$374.71
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1606 $104.32
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.9999 $1,913.18
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0023 $1.49
Race: Black -886.3703 0.6922 -$613.58
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0017 -$5.83
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0087 -$1.61
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.6296 $587.46
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4298 $594.82
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0346 -$28.62
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0016 $10.53
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.0024 $1.50
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.4517 $246.74
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0239 -$11.86
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.6858 $1,684.50
Low Income -305.7985 0.9951 -$304.31
Homeless 983.9044 0.0006 $0.56
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0016 -$2.03
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0073 $7.39
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.0463 $39.58
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.6638 -$188.19
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0027 -$1.26
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.9160 $147.63
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0086 -$1.58
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0077 -$12.85
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0086 -$4.64
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2934 -$1.27
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.7292 -$20.33
Median Days in Program 0.5942 107.0000 $63.58
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0116 -$36.72
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0308 $339.05
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0851 $1,835.49
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0190 -$1,055.28
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0502 $2,247.61
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1435 $2,041.09
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2026 $4,126.52
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0891 $631.44
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0128 $731.83
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.1414 $6,163.45
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0845 -$852.59

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 29.1% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.047) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-2.756).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5148 -14.20%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0541 -4.38%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.4325 -39.04%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3514 -24.59%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1606 -26.35%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.9999 -1.70%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0023 0.00%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.6922 0.29%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0087 -0.14%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.6296 124.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.4298 -11.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0346 3.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0016 0.30%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.4517 0.99%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6638 13.12%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0027 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.9160 -6.53%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0086 0.24%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0077 0.43%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.7292 -3.67%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 0.0000 0.00%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0000 0.00%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0116 8.83%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0308 29.52%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0851 49.64%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0190 -81.46%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0502 -71.45%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1435 207.81%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2026 143.08%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0891 56.12%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0128 65.24%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.1414 -103.84%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0845 -9.85%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 59.5% for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.397) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.802).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.6883 5.51%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4842 5.26%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1410 -1.21%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0395 -0.03%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0274 -0.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.9994 23.24%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0013 -0.03%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.6764 -10.89%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0023 0.22%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0084 -0.26%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.6409 15.83%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.6246 -1.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.0618 0.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0706 2.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1003 -6.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0173 -0.91%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0409 0.35%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0545 -0.49%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0138 -0.49%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0022 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.5473 -1.01%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1166 2.36%
Low Income 0.0926 0.7733 7.16%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0002 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.0000 0.00%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.0696 -0.27%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0100 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0067 -0.07%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0008 -0.83%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0297 -0.35%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0033 0.36%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0198 -1.13%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 122.0000 -3.36%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0116 1.95%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0308 4.75%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0851 8.62%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0190 -0.87%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0502 14.87%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1435 13.54%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2026 25.99%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0891 5.27%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0128 5.01%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.1414 24.06%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0845 2.91%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,300 for Puerto Rico for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 46184) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-40885).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.6883 -$1,910
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4842 $739
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1410 $32
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0395 $68
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0274 $109
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.9994 $1,505
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0013 -$2
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.6764 -$1,980
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0023 -$6
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0084 -$47
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.6409 $6,844
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.6246 -$1,102
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.0618 -$135
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0706 $148
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1003 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0173 -$87
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.0409 $19
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0545 -$63
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0138 -$70
Veteran -913.8967 0.0022 -$2
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.5473 $856
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1166 $77
Low Income 634.4633 0.7733 $491
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0002 -$1
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.0000 $0
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 0.0000 $0
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0000 $0
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.0696 $32
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0100 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0067 -$4
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0008 -$18
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0297 -$35
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0033 $36
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0198 $33
Median Days in Program 0.8717 122.0000 $106
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0116 $429
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0308 $1,319
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0851 $4,061
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0190 $215
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0502 $3,141
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1435 $9,745
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2026 $10,430
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0891 $3,832
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0128 $534
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.1414 $7,264
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0845 -$430

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x