Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for New Jersey

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for New Jersey in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for New Jersey in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 64.3% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.794) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.151).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5411 7.04%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5592 -1.72%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1959 -3.03%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0772 -0.60%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0498 -2.98%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1989 1.62%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0284 -0.66%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.4619 3.98%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0050 -0.07%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0077 0.04%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0117 -0.14%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5140 -6.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1280 -1.56%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0157 0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0936 -0.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1160 2.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0354 -0.51%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.1273 2.50%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0057 0.07%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0124 -0.22%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0144 0.42%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0244 -0.07%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1150 -1.08%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5267 0.43%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0070 -0.04%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0301 0.47%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0027 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5876 11.10%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0227 0.04%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.5531 -0.82%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0207 0.29%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1260 0.78%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0067 0.33%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0668 -0.33%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0007 0.00%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0495 0.22%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7527 1.66%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 132.0000 -2.42%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0030 0.64%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0395 3.40%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0610 1.16%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0172 -9.19%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0601 -29.23%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1670 62.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2408 19.83%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0966 -8.62%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0338 15.32%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0501 11.10%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0377 2.57%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,487 for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40616) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35130).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5622 -$1,597
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5740 -$495
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1796 -$565
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0714 -$378
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0388 -$235
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1959 $46
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0250 -$110
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.4867 -$1,132
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0056 -$36
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0071 -$19
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0122 $86
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5245 $190
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1327 $110
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0138 -$18
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0964 $544
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1066 $432
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0296 $253
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.1520 $147
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0061 $22
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0112 -$11
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0158 -$21
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0250 -$110
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1260 $18
Low Income -332.4067 0.5321 -$177
Homeless -446.4262 0.0077 -$3
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0276 $55
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0005 -$1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6587 $532
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4408.5800 $1,610
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0173 $35
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.5816 $399
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0153 -$39
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1296 $118
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0071 $108
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0592 $6
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0005 -$3
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0515 $43
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7383 -$152
Median Days in Program 3.2489 134.0000 $435
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0030 $73
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0395 $1,278
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0610 $2,394
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0172 -$831
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0601 $245
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1670 $16,157
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2408 $13,521
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0966 $5,570
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0338 $364
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0501 $1,988
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0377 -$230

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 36.0% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.548) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.188).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5803 -20.97%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5768 30.10%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1949 -1.37%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0658 -6.57%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0342 10.00%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1835 -26.53%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0334 7.11%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.4565 -25.89%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0123 1.05%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0167 3.30%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5136 -6.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1457 -2.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0193 0.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0913 -7.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1106 -2.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0342 6.30%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.1457 5.32%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0009 -0.03%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0114 -0.30%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0158 0.40%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0342 3.02%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2230 4.76%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0474 3.70%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.5698 -0.07%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0667 0.44%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0299 0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.2608 -3.38%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0009 0.04%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0729 -2.08%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.8244 6.03%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 193.0000 6.84%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 197.0000 -4.80%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0395 -0.03%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0030 3.03%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0395 35.29%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0610 73.97%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0172 -75.56%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0601 190.54%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1670 126.51%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2408 239.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0966 24.93%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0338 111.24%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0501 -0.72%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0377 -51.09%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 66.9% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.861) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.53).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5312 3.17%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3828 0.72%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3024 -0.51%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1476 1.56%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1377 -2.62%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1532 1.82%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0629 -1.83%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.2626 -0.94%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0048 0.42%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0038 -0.04%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0074 -0.14%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3704 -0.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1362 -2.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0183 -0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1327 -1.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2182 -3.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0832 -1.01%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0403 0.43%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0005 0.00%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0053 -0.03%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0259 0.01%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0127 -0.32%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0464 0.21%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1601 -0.83%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0010 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0096 0.36%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0071 -0.16%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8133 9.20%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0048 0.03%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.8574 1.79%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0167 0.12%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.2075 1.03%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0238 -0.30%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0003 0.02%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0089 -0.47%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.8318 -4.26%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 175.0000 0.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0030 -0.61%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0395 -1.85%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0610 -10.41%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0172 -17.07%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0601 -37.69%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1670 -60.16%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2408 -48.02%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0966 -27.55%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0338 10.30%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0501 6.16%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0377 1.55%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,872 for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36799) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-28927).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5413 -$1,029
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4149 $463
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3118 -$39
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1412 -$300
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0966 -$241
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1699 -$146
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0532 -$249
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.2805 -$431
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0049 -$16
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0053 -$19
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0087 -$32
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3866 -$541
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1461 -$278
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0174 $1
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1340 $205
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2035 $238
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0680 $146
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0468 $80
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0004 $1
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0049 $1
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0253 $37
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0128 -$38
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0502 -$39
Low Income -538.7097 0.1699 -$92
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0004 $3
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0106 $19
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0068 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8373 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9749.3100 $894
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0049 $7
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.8596 $59
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0166 -$41
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.2190 $39
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0223 $10
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0004 -$1
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0113 -$48
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.8290 -$334
Median Days in Program 2.2222 178.0000 $396
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0030 -$82
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0395 $1,449
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0610 $2,879
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0172 -$4,486
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0601 $5,159
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1670 $15,868
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2408 $12,320
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0966 $4,248
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0338 -$154
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0501 $1,117
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0377 -$218

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 37.1% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.274) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.903).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5271 -7.95%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4074 -2.67%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3025 7.30%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1475 6.76%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.1068 9.76%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1714 -11.39%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0596 -3.18%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.2891 -9.52%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0065 1.71%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0084 0.04%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3661 -7.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1361 -3.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0179 -0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1321 3.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2116 -2.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0939 -4.01%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0383 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0000 0.00%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0129 -1.87%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0224 -2.06%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0253 1.14%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0934 3.45%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0273 1.28%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8038 2.30%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0402 1.56%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0159 0.57%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2851 -1.75%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0070 -2.69%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.8758 -8.43%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 201.0000 -6.46%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 213.0000 -5.83%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0378 0.61%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0030 -2.45%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0395 17.58%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0610 60.13%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0172 -101.20%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0601 73.26%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1670 268.11%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2408 172.46%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0966 14.61%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0338 221.06%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0501 -14.28%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0377 -40.80%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 61.7% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.189) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.806).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.4836 2.88%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0104 0.13%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.3710 -5.33%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3231 -6.64%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1601 0.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.3024 -1.90%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0116 0.23%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.3706 -1.53%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0026 -0.14%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0060 -0.20%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0164 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.2101 1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0285 -0.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0004 0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0082 0.40%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.0997 2.74%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2213 0.79%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1967 -0.92%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0211 -0.29%
Low Income 0.0375 0.6829 2.56%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0142 -0.29%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0306 0.19%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0086 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.0686 -0.49%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.3999 1.40%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0104 -0.09%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0677 -0.29%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5388 2.38%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0263 -0.40%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0047 0.04%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0535 -0.18%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0009 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.0997 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.3003 0.45%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 177.5000 -0.71%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0030 -2.05%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0395 -7.43%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0610 -8.30%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0172 -12.58%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0601 -12.83%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1670 -42.69%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2408 0.59%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0966 -3.81%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0338 -36.53%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0501 16.54%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0377 -5.61%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $2,375 for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14182) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11807).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5154 -$967.59
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0038 -$0.35
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.3226 -$422.28
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3303 -$352.22
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1820 $118.23
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.2873 $549.64
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0100 $6.49
Race: Black -886.3703 0.3994 -$354.00
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0023 -$7.81
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0069 -$1.28
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0184 $17.20
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.2588 $358.21
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0269 -$22.26
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0008 $0.13
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0115 $76.87
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1344 $82.50
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1882 $102.78
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1528 -$75.68
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0238 $58.48
Low Income -305.7985 0.6882 -$210.44
Homeless 983.9044 0.0184 $18.14
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0246 -$31.57
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0100 $10.08
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.0829 $70.88
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.3925 -$111.26
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0084 -$5.32
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0960 -$44.41
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5453 $87.89
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0284 -$5.23
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0008 -$1.27
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0607 -$32.74
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0015 $0.16
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.1052 -$0.46
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.3287 -$9.16
Median Days in Program 0.5942 179.0000 $106.36
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0030 -$9.60
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0395 $434.53
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0610 $1,315.46
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0172 -$956.12
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0601 $2,691.11
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1670 $2,374.43
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2408 $4,904.62
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0966 $684.65
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0338 $1,930.09
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0501 $2,184.49
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0377 -$380.32

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 44.9% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.246) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.797).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.4900 -13.52%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0025 -0.20%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3188 -28.77%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3238 -22.65%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1562 -25.63%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.2537 -0.43%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0125 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.4262 0.18%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0075 -0.12%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0213 4.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3212 -8.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0213 2.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0025 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0050 0.95%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.0750 0.17%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.5925 11.71%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.1038 0.21%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6900 -4.92%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0438 1.20%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0000 0.00%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.4888 -2.46%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 177.0000 -5.78%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0812 -2.80%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0030 2.31%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0395 37.84%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0610 35.58%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0172 -73.80%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0601 -85.55%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1670 241.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2408 170.05%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0966 60.84%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0338 172.07%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0501 -36.80%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0377 -4.40%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 52.8% for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.154) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.626).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4937 3.95%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4158 4.51%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2386 -2.05%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1212 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1230 -0.77%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1620 3.77%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0458 -1.08%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.3280 -5.28%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0039 0.38%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0066 -0.20%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0095 0.24%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4117 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1141 0.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0197 -0.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.1002 3.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1719 -11.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0677 -3.55%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1180 1.02%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0111 -0.10%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0209 -0.74%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0379 0.82%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0213 -0.04%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0458 0.93%
Low Income 0.0926 0.2682 2.48%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0113 -0.08%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0170 0.31%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0006 -0.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6235 19.79%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0117 -0.18%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6112 -2.35%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0251 -0.23%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0153 -0.16%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0001 -0.09%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0031 -0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0003 0.03%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0283 -1.61%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 34.0000 -0.94%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0030 0.51%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0395 6.09%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0610 6.18%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0172 -0.79%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0601 17.81%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1670 15.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2408 30.89%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0966 5.72%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0338 13.21%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0501 8.53%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0377 1.30%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,584 for New Jersey for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40557) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34972).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.5084 -$1,411
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4384 $669
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2399 $54
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1160 $200
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0933 $372
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1699 $256
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0382 -$49
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.3476 -$1,017
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0040 -$10
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0068 -$38
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0095 $102
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4312 -$761
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1194 -$260
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0212 -$46
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.1049 $220
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1631 $12
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0545 -$273
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1266 $58
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0096 -$11
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0160 -$82
Veteran -913.8967 0.0347 -$32
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0219 $34
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0526 $35
Low Income 634.4633 0.2657 $169
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0088 -$31
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0170 $33
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0007 -$7
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7546 -$166
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6929.0250 $1,810
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0085 $7
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.6652 $303
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0253 $6
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0194 -$12
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0001 -$2
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0036 -$4
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0002 $2
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0293 $49
Median Days in Program 0.8717 37.0000 $32
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0030 $112
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0395 $1,690
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0610 $2,910
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0172 $195
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0601 $3,761
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1670 $11,336
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2408 $12,397
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0966 $4,155
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0338 $1,409
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0501 $2,575
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0377 -$192

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x