Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Connecticut

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Connecticut in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Connecticut in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.1% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.608) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.152).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5435 7.08%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5166 -1.59%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.2257 -3.49%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0889 -0.69%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0595 -3.56%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.2212 1.80%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0185 -0.43%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.3715 3.20%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0077 -0.10%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0237 0.12%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0294 -0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5582 -7.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.0857 -1.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0563 0.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0825 -0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0972 1.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0422 -0.60%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2641 5.19%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0588 0.74%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0991 -1.80%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0371 1.08%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0064 -0.02%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1164 -1.10%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7909 0.64%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0281 -0.15%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1841 2.85%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0006 -0.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5358 10.12%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1426 0.22%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1138 -0.17%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0301 0.42%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0595 0.37%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0077 -0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0460 -0.09%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0396 0.17%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7724 1.70%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 227.0000 -4.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0031 0.67%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0380 3.27%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0968 1.84%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0205 -10.95%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0737 -35.86%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1325 49.78%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2742 22.58%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1058 -9.44%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0400 18.11%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0332 7.34%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0382 2.60%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,765 for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40601) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34836).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5602 -$1,592
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5329 -$459
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.2195 -$690
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0786 -$416
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0495 -$300
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.2263 $53
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0171 -$75
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.3766 -$876
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0068 -$43
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0239 -$64
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0290 $203
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5568 $202
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.0880 $73
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0572 -$76
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0828 $467
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1033 $419
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0367 $314
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3185 $307
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0640 $232
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0640 -$63
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0307 -$41
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0077 -$34
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1315 $19
Low Income -332.4067 0.7857 -$261
Homeless -446.4262 0.0248 -$11
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1605 $323
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0009 -$2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6149 $497
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4084.0100 $1,492
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1230 $247
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1238 $85
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0316 -$81
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0572 $52
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0034 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0273 -$162
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0427 $36
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7805 -$160
Median Days in Program 3.2489 230.0000 $747
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0031 $76
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0380 $1,227
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0968 $3,798
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0205 -$990
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0737 $300
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1325 $12,818
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2742 $15,400
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1058 $6,099
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0400 $431
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0332 $1,315
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0382 -$233

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 54.8% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.731) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.182).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5256 -19.00%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6165 32.17%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1667 -1.17%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0470 -4.69%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0374 10.93%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.2276 -32.90%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0171 3.64%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.4434 -25.14%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0160 1.37%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0299 5.91%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.6165 -7.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.0833 -1.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0374 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0801 -6.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0844 -1.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0256 4.71%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3942 14.38%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1090 -3.32%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0823 -2.15%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0182 0.46%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0096 0.85%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1976 4.22%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1453 11.35%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.5118 -0.06%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1624 1.06%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0160 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.1079 -1.40%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0513 2.53%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0588 -1.67%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.6496 4.75%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 243.0000 8.62%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 92.0000 -2.24%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1175 -0.10%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0031 3.15%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0380 33.90%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0968 117.34%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0205 -90.03%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0737 233.77%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1325 100.36%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2742 272.25%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1058 27.30%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0400 131.46%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0332 -0.47%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0382 -51.73%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 83.2% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.982) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.814).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4924 2.93%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3688 0.70%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3146 -0.53%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1663 1.76%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1198 -2.28%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1302 1.54%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0200 -0.58%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1835 -0.66%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0029 0.25%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0095 -0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0105 -0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4363 -1.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1093 -2.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0428 -0.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0894 -0.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2044 -2.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0817 -0.99%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0333 0.35%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0399 -0.10%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0409 -0.22%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0475 0.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0029 -0.07%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0352 0.16%
Low Income -0.0518 0.2186 -1.13%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0010 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0276 1.04%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0029 -0.06%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8821 9.98%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0276 0.16%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7234 1.51%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0646 0.48%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1169 0.58%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0029 0.23%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0019 -0.10%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9696 -4.97%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 242.0000 0.19%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0031 -0.64%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0380 -1.77%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0968 -16.52%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0205 -20.33%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0737 -46.24%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1325 -47.73%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2742 -54.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1058 -30.16%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0400 12.17%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0332 4.08%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0382 1.57%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,192 for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37826) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-28634).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4751 -$903
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3846 $429
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3156 -$40
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1686 -$358
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0973 -$243
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1312 -$113
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0136 -$64
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1833 -$282
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0011 -$4
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0079 -$28
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0102 -$38
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4446 -$622
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1052 -$200
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0441 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0905 $138
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2048 $239
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0769 $166
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0339 $58
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0385 $146
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0373 $10
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0520 $75
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0034 -$10
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0328 -$26
Low Income -538.7097 0.2014 -$108
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0238 $43
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0023 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8914 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 10794.2300 $989
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0271 $37
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7285 $50
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0588 -$147
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1199 $21
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0034 -$7
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0023 -$10
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9695 -$391
Median Days in Program 2.2222 239.0000 $531
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0031 -$86
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0380 $1,392
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0968 $4,567
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0205 -$5,346
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0737 $6,329
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1325 $12,589
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2742 $14,032
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1058 $4,651
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0400 -$182
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0332 $738
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0382 -$221

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 55.3% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.721) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.168).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5170 -7.80%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4690 -3.07%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2807 6.78%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1368 6.27%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0877 8.02%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1579 -10.49%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0327 -1.75%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.2632 -8.67%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0140 3.71%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0175 0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4889 -9.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.0865 -2.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0363 -0.95%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0982 2.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1673 -1.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0725 -3.10%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0374 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0386 -1.02%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0199 -2.88%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0269 -2.48%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0129 0.58%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0386 1.42%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0234 1.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8772 2.52%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0386 1.50%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0503 1.79%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.1743 -1.07%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0023 -0.10%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0012 -0.45%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9439 -9.09%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 304.0000 -9.77%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 144.0000 -3.94%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0725 1.17%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0031 -2.54%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0380 16.89%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0968 95.38%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0205 -120.58%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0737 89.88%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1325 212.70%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2742 196.42%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1058 15.99%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0400 261.23%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0332 -9.44%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0382 -41.31%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 74.7% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.249) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.995).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5444 3.24%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0218 0.27%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2228 -3.20%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3534 -7.26%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1809 0.19%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.4121 -2.59%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0101 0.20%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.4389 -1.82%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0034 -0.18%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0134 -0.45%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0419 0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4422 3.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0034 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0017 0.08%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2546 7.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2864 1.02%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1256 -0.59%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0285 -0.40%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9765 3.66%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0385 -0.77%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0503 0.32%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0117 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1658 -1.19%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7906 2.76%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0536 -0.46%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0101 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.1893 0.84%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0151 0.11%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0318 -0.11%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0235 0.09%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.1608 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.2094 0.31%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 259.0000 -1.04%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0031 -2.14%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0380 -7.14%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0968 -13.16%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0205 -14.99%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0737 -15.75%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1325 -33.87%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2742 0.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1058 -4.17%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0400 -43.17%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0332 10.94%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0382 -5.68%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,108 for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15761) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-12652).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5811 -$1,090.98
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0158 -$1.46
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2140 -$280.09
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3626 -$386.72
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1802 $117.03
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.4009 $767.11
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0135 $8.78
Race: Black -886.3703 0.4369 -$387.29
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0045 -$15.26
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0113 -$2.08
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0405 $37.83
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4932 $682.62
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0045 -$3.73
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0023 $15.03
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2995 $183.86
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2545 $139.01
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0946 -$46.84
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0293 $71.92
Low Income -305.7985 0.9685 -$296.16
Homeless 983.9044 0.0383 $37.67
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0405 -$52.08
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0090 $9.10
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1802 $153.97
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.8063 -$228.57
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0473 -$29.81
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0113 -$5.21
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.1959 $31.58
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0113 -$18.68
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0293 -$15.80
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0270 $2.82
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.1441 -$0.62
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.2365 -$6.59
Median Days in Program 0.5942 259.0000 $153.90
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0031 -$9.99
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0380 $417.45
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0968 $2,086.71
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0205 -$1,139.26
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0737 $3,301.68
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1325 $1,883.74
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2742 $5,586.11
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1058 $749.60
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0400 $2,280.80
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0332 $1,444.61
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0382 -$385.11

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 60.1% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.313) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.711).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5482 -15.12%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0058 -0.47%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2162 -19.51%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3642 -25.48%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.2084 -34.18%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.3632 -0.62%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0175 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.4352 0.18%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0117 -0.18%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0273 5.38%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.5063 -13.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0029 0.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0029 -0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0010 0.19%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2551 0.56%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.8900 17.59%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0097 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.2756 -1.96%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0010 0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0156 0.86%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0117 -1.04%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.1733 -0.87%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 209.0000 -6.82%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0769 -2.65%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0031 2.40%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0380 36.35%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0968 56.44%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0205 -87.94%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0737 -104.96%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1325 191.79%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2742 193.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1058 66.62%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0400 203.33%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0332 -24.34%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0382 -4.45%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 68.8% for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.336) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.647).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4308 3.45%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4080 4.43%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2453 -2.11%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1234 -0.09%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1472 -0.93%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.1700 3.95%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0144 -0.34%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.2075 -3.34%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0026 0.25%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0089 -0.27%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0112 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5801 -1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.0644 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0268 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0562 1.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1155 -7.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0457 -2.40%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0699 0.60%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0208 -0.19%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0264 -0.94%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0290 0.63%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0010 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0141 0.29%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0570 0.53%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0044 -0.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0110 0.20%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0015 -0.03%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8414 26.70%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0103 -0.16%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7606 -2.93%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0157 -0.14%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0053 -0.05%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0002 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0017 0.18%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0014 -0.08%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 28.0000 -0.77%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0031 0.53%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0380 5.85%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0968 9.80%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0205 -0.94%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0737 21.85%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1325 12.49%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2742 35.18%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1058 6.26%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0400 15.61%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0332 5.64%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0382 1.31%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,673 for Connecticut for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42782) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36109).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4260 -$1,182
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4245 $648
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2544 $57
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1219 $210
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1195 $477
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.1812 $273
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0131 -$17
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.2084 -$610
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0025 -$6
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0078 -$44
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0098 $104
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.6029 -$1,063
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.0598 -$130
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0266 -$58
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0549 $115
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1078 $8
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0408 -$205
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.0796 $36
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0195 -$23
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0189 -$96
Veteran -913.8967 0.0255 -$23
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0011 $2
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0137 $9
Low Income 634.4633 0.0529 $34
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0036 -$13
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0099 $19
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0012 -$13
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8988 -$197
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7770.6050 $2,029
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0090 $7
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7814 $355
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0132 $3
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0059 -$4
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0001 -$0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0010 $11
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0014 $2
Median Days in Program 0.8717 31.0000 $27
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0031 $117
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0380 $1,624
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0968 $4,617
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0205 $232
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0737 $4,614
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1325 $8,993
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2742 $14,119
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1058 $4,549
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0400 $1,665
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0332 $1,703
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0382 -$194

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x