Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for New Hampshire

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for New Hampshire in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for New Hampshire in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 85.7% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.694) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.164).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6625 8.62%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5375 -1.66%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1750 -2.70%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0625 -0.49%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0250 -1.50%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0500 0.41%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0208 -0.49%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1375 1.18%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0083 -0.11%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0083 0.04%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.3875 -4.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2000 -2.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0417 0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0958 -0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1500 2.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0500 -0.72%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2458 4.83%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0208 0.26%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0500 -0.91%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0125 0.36%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.1833 -0.56%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.3792 -3.57%
Low Income 0.0081 0.8375 0.68%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0583 -0.31%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0792 1.23%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5833 11.02%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2625 0.41%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1167 -0.17%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4208 2.61%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0458 -0.23%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0208 -0.04%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.1542 0.67%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.6083 1.34%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 124.0000 -2.27%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0040 0.84%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0426 3.67%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1079 2.05%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0188 -10.03%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0505 -24.56%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1268 47.64%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2408 19.83%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1098 -9.80%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0324 14.65%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0475 10.52%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0244 1.66%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,675 for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39828) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-33154).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6650 -$1,889
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5388 -$465
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1602 -$504
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0583 -$308
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0243 -$147
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0534 $12
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0146 -$64
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1505 -$350
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0097 -$62
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0049 -$13
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3932 $142
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1893 $157
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0437 -$58
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.1019 $575
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1602 $649
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0437 $373
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2767 $267
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0243 $88
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0583 -$58
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0049 -$7
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.1942 -$858
Single Parent 145.7630 0.3932 $57
Low Income -332.4067 0.8350 -$278
Homeless -446.4262 0.0534 -$24
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0631 $127
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6117 $494
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4194.7150 $1,532
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.2330 $469
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1165 $80
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4223 $386
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0534 $6
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0194 -$115
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.1602 $135
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.5971 -$123
Median Days in Program 3.2489 118.5000 $385
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0040 $95
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0426 $1,377
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1079 $4,236
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0188 -$906
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0505 $206
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1268 $12,268
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2408 $13,523
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1098 $6,335
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0324 $348
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0475 $1,884
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0244 -$149

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 85.0% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.15) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.3).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.7190 -25.98%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5455 28.46%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1157 -0.81%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0331 -3.30%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0248 7.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0661 -9.56%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0331 7.04%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0579 -3.28%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0165 1.41%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0165 3.27%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.4380 -5.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2975 -5.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.1157 0.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0248 -2.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0826 -1.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0248 4.56%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.2479 9.04%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0331 -1.01%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0992 -2.59%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0165 0.41%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0992 8.74%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.5041 10.76%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1074 8.39%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6033 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.3140 2.05%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.2727 -3.54%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0083 0.41%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.2975 -8.47%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.7521 5.50%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 157.0000 5.57%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 85.0000 -2.07%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0579 -0.05%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0040 3.96%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0426 38.02%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1079 130.87%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0188 -82.43%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0505 160.13%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1268 96.06%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2408 239.06%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1098 28.35%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0324 106.36%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0475 -0.68%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0244 -33.04%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 84.9% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.781) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.631).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5216 3.11%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.2757 0.52%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3432 -0.58%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1946 2.06%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1541 -2.94%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0243 0.29%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0216 -0.63%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0108 -0.04%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2270 -0.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1811 -3.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0405 -0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1243 -1.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.3054 -4.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0946 -1.14%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0622 0.66%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0162 -0.04%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0243 -0.13%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0514 0.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0108 -0.27%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0865 0.39%
Low Income -0.0518 0.0243 -0.13%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0027 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0270 1.02%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9081 10.27%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1000 0.57%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.9189 1.91%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0378 0.28%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3568 1.77%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0027 -0.14%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9514 -4.87%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 140.0000 0.11%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0040 -0.80%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0426 -1.99%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1079 -18.42%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0188 -18.62%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0505 -31.67%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1268 -45.68%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2408 -48.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1098 -31.33%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0324 9.85%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0475 5.84%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0244 1.00%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,477 for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 35678) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-26201).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5277 -$1,003
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.2801 $312
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3518 -$44
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1987 -$423
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1401 -$349
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0228 -$20
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0195 -$92
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0130 -$20
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0000 $0
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.2182 -$306
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1694 -$322
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0456 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1270 $194
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.3160 $369
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0945 $204
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0749 $127
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0163 $62
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0228 $6
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0456 $66
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0098 -$29
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0847 -$66
Low Income -538.7097 0.0261 -$14
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0293 $53
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9186 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 10101.0600 $926
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0879 $119
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.9186 $63
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0391 -$97
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3616 $64
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9544 -$385
Median Days in Program 2.2222 136.0000 $302
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0040 -$108
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0426 $1,561
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1079 $5,094
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0188 -$4,895
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0505 $4,336
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1268 $12,048
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2408 $12,321
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1098 $4,831
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0324 -$147
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0475 $1,058
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0244 -$141

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 85.8% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.24) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.383).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4939 -7.45%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.2683 -1.76%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3415 8.24%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.2439 11.17%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.1280 11.70%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0183 -1.22%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0305 -1.63%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0183 -0.60%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.2805 -5.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2012 -4.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0671 -1.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1098 2.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2317 -2.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0854 -3.65%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0488 -0.10%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0122 -0.32%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0610 -8.83%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0610 -5.63%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0061 0.28%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0976 3.60%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0122 0.57%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9451 2.71%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1037 4.02%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0122 0.43%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2012 -1.24%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.8902 -8.57%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 139.0000 -4.47%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 68.0000 -1.86%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1768 2.86%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0040 -3.20%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0426 18.95%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1079 106.38%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0188 -110.41%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0505 61.57%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1268 203.57%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2408 172.48%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1098 16.61%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0324 211.35%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0475 -13.53%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0244 -26.39%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 81.6% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.023) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.839).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5029 2.99%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.1040 1.28%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2081 -2.99%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3353 -6.88%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1850 0.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1329 -0.83%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0058 0.11%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0867 -0.36%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0058 -0.31%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0116 -0.39%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0058 0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5491 3.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0058 -0.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.3468 9.53%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2948 1.05%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.4971 -2.33%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.1387 -1.93%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8266 3.10%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0983 -1.97%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0809 0.51%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0058 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1445 -1.03%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.4335 1.51%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0116 -0.05%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.6127 2.71%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0694 0.52%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0173 -0.06%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0116 0.04%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.3006 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 373.5000 -1.50%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0040 -2.68%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0426 -8.01%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1079 -14.68%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0188 -13.72%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0505 -10.79%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1268 -32.41%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2408 0.59%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1098 -4.33%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0324 -34.93%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0475 15.67%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0244 -3.63%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $4,322 for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 15081) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10760).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5227 -$981.42
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0833 -$7.69
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2197 -$287.60
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3788 -$403.97
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1894 $123.01
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1515 $289.92
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0076 $4.92
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0606 -$53.72
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0076 -$25.67
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0076 -$1.40
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5758 $796.81
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0076 -$6.27
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3939 $241.79
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2727 $148.96
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.4924 -$243.84
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.1515 $372.17
Low Income -305.7985 0.8030 -$245.57
Homeless 983.9044 0.0909 $89.45
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0758 -$97.32
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1439 $123.00
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.4318 -$122.41
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0076 -$3.50
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.6439 $103.79
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0682 -$113.10
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0152 -$8.18
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0076 $0.79
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2803 -$1.21
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0000 $0.00
Median Days in Program 0.5942 391.0000 $232.33
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0040 -$12.54
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0426 $468.20
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1079 $2,327.32
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0188 -$1,043.13
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0505 $2,261.68
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1268 $1,802.89
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2408 $4,905.12
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1098 $778.62
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0324 $1,845.26
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0475 $2,069.66
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0244 -$246.01

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.7% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.987) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.21).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.6094 -16.81%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.1094 -8.87%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2031 -18.33%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3008 -21.05%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1562 -25.63%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0469 -0.08%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0234 -0.04%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.1406 0.06%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0078 -0.12%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0586 11.56%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.5156 -13.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3047 0.67%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.3945 7.80%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.5781 -4.12%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0234 1.30%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0469 -4.15%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 370.0000 -12.07%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0430 -1.48%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0040 3.02%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0426 40.77%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1079 62.95%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0188 -80.52%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0505 -71.90%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1268 183.56%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2408 170.07%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1098 69.20%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0324 164.50%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0475 -34.87%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0244 -2.84%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 65.7% for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.157) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.5).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4584 3.67%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.3844 4.17%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2451 -2.11%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1377 -0.10%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1618 -1.02%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0147 0.34%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0156 -0.37%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0271 -0.44%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0024 0.23%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0139 -0.43%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0143 0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3449 -0.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1920 0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0114 -0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0910 3.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1877 -12.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0733 -3.85%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0828 0.72%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0460 -0.41%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0512 -1.82%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0548 1.19%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0004 0.01%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0222 0.21%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0038 -0.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0003 0.01%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0026 -0.06%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8245 26.17%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0005 -0.01%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7559 -2.91%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0041 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0001 0.02%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 56.0000 -1.54%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0040 0.67%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0426 6.56%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1079 10.93%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0188 -0.86%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0505 14.97%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1268 11.96%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2408 30.89%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1098 6.50%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0324 12.63%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0475 8.08%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0244 0.84%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,211 for New Hampshire for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40941) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-33730).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4723 -$1,311
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.3949 $603
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2518 $56
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1356 $234
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1447 $577
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0134 $20
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0112 -$14
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0258 -$76
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0020 -$5
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0148 -$83
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0147 $157
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3693 -$651
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1937 -$422
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0127 -$28
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0907 $190
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1721 $13
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0595 -$298
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.0941 $43
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0442 -$51
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0394 -$201
Veteran -913.8967 0.0507 -$46
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0006 $0
Low Income 634.4633 0.0179 $11
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0031 -$11
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0003 $1
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0021 -$22
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8910 -$196
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 8310.5350 $2,170
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0003 $0
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7640 $347
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0040 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0001 $1
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 0.8717 53.0000 $46
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0040 $147
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0426 $1,821
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1079 $5,149
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0188 $213
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0505 $3,161
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1268 $8,607
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2408 $12,398
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1098 $4,725
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0324 $1,347
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0475 $2,439
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0244 -$124

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x