Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Massachusetts

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Massachusetts in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Massachusetts in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 78.2% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.709) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.073).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6813 8.87%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5602 -1.73%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1721 -2.66%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0751 -0.58%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0489 -2.93%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.3201 2.61%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.1636 -3.82%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.2344 2.02%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0050 -0.07%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0198 0.10%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0276 -0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4816 -6.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1799 -2.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0212 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0878 -0.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1098 1.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0382 -0.55%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.1700 3.34%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0751 0.95%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0956 -1.73%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0347 1.01%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0205 -0.06%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.3768 -3.55%
Low Income 0.0081 0.8166 0.66%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0446 -0.24%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0170 0.26%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0028 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5871 11.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2585 0.41%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.3215 -0.48%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0482 0.67%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.1416 0.88%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0042 0.21%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0042 -0.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0453 -0.09%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.2691 1.18%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 1.0000 2.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 214.0000 -3.92%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0028 0.59%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0451 3.89%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0682 1.29%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0272 -14.52%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0608 -29.60%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1673 62.85%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2827 23.28%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1064 -9.50%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0336 15.20%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0384 8.50%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0306 2.09%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,812 for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 43421) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36609).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6965 -$1,979
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5761 -$497
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1662 -$523
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0728 -$385
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0317 -$192
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.3473 $81
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.1849 -$816
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.2241 -$521
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0037 -$24
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0196 -$53
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0271 $189
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4846 $175
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1877 $155
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0168 -$22
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0878 $495
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1064 $431
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0336 $287
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2007 $194
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0868 $315
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0822 -$81
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0355 -$48
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0224 -$99
Single Parent 145.7630 0.3996 $58
Low Income -332.4067 0.8151 -$271
Homeless -446.4262 0.0439 -$20
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0149 $30
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0019 -$4
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6190 $500
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4907.8200 $1,793
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.2418 $487
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.3249 $223
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0495 -$127
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.1373 $125
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0028 $42
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0037 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0364 -$215
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.2754 $232
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 1.0000 -$205
Median Days in Program 3.2489 203.0000 $660
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0028 $67
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0451 $1,459
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0682 $2,676
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0272 -$1,312
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0608 $248
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1673 $16,182
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2827 $15,877
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1064 $6,137
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0336 $362
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0384 $1,522
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0306 -$187

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 46.0% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.109) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.648).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.7311 -26.42%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6054 31.59%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1327 -0.93%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0466 -4.64%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0279 8.16%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.3458 -49.98%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.2119 45.15%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2701 -15.32%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0210 1.79%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0349 6.90%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5087 -6.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2061 -3.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0291 0.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0687 -5.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0733 -1.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0326 5.99%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.1991 7.26%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1560 -4.75%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0920 -2.40%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0198 0.50%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0198 1.74%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.4144 8.85%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0163 1.27%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.2095 -0.03%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2596 1.69%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0291 0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.1222 -1.58%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0780 3.84%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.2352 -6.70%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 1.0000 7.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 235.0000 8.33%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 83.0000 -2.02%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.2235 -0.19%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0028 2.78%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0451 40.29%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0682 82.68%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0272 -119.35%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0608 192.94%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1673 126.71%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2827 280.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1064 27.47%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0336 110.37%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0384 -0.55%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0306 -41.48%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.8% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2.133) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.911).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5002 2.98%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3090 0.59%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3172 -0.54%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1852 1.96%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1640 -3.12%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1321 1.57%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.1459 -4.24%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1088 -0.39%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0030 0.27%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0151 -0.15%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0237 -0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3181 -0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1765 -3.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0186 -0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1079 -0.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2262 -3.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.1036 -1.25%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0462 0.49%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0462 -0.12%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0375 -0.20%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0445 0.02%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0194 -0.49%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1157 0.52%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1489 -0.77%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0069 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0052 0.20%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0009 -0.02%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9327 10.55%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1442 0.83%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.8382 1.74%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0164 0.12%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1864 0.93%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0017 -0.09%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0073 0.60%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0164 -0.87%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 245.0000 0.20%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0028 -0.56%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0451 -2.11%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0682 -11.64%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0272 -26.96%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0608 -38.16%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1673 -60.26%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2827 -56.39%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1064 -30.35%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0336 10.22%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0384 4.72%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0306 1.26%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $10,277 for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37530) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-27253).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5072 -$964
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3229 $360
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3405 -$43
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1887 -$401
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.1210 -$302
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1304 -$112
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.1381 -$647
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1122 -$172
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0039 -$13
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0143 -$50
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0253 -$94
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.3212 -$450
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1766 -$336
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0182 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1139 $174
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2261 $264
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0957 $206
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0523 $89
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0462 $175
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0341 $10
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0451 $65
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0160 -$47
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1199 -$94
Low Income -538.7097 0.1562 -$84
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0072 $56
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0050 $9
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0006 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9367 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 12374.0000 $1,134
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1359 $183
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.8520 $59
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0138 -$34
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1793 $32
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0022 $15
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0066 -$14
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0176 -$74
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 232.0000 $516
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0028 -$76
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0451 $1,654
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0682 $3,218
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0272 -$7,087
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0608 $5,224
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1673 $15,893
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2827 $14,466
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1064 $4,680
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0336 -$153
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0384 $855
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0306 -$177

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 35.5% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.217) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.861).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4820 -7.27%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.3239 -2.12%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3128 7.55%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1859 8.51%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.1553 14.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1540 -10.23%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.1775 -9.48%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1283 -4.22%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0125 3.30%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0257 0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3322 -6.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1630 -3.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0201 -0.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1054 2.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2323 -2.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0895 -3.82%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0250 -0.05%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0992 -2.62%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0361 -5.22%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0485 -4.48%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0208 0.94%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1221 4.51%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0104 0.49%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.3037 0.87%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1768 6.86%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0132 0.47%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2677 -1.65%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0097 -0.42%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0146 -5.64%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 1.0000 -9.63%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 285.0000 -9.16%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 123.0000 -3.36%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1290 2.09%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0028 -2.24%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0451 20.08%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0682 67.21%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0272 -159.85%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0608 74.18%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1673 268.53%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2827 202.51%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1064 16.09%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0336 219.32%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0384 -10.93%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0306 -33.13%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.7% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.255) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.971).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5692 3.38%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0189 0.23%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2995 -4.30%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3343 -6.87%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1900 0.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.4060 -2.55%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.2438 4.85%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.2388 -0.99%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0080 -0.43%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0209 -0.70%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0547 0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.2517 1.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0209 -0.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0010 0.05%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1463 4.02%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2199 0.78%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.2199 -1.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0249 -0.35%
Low Income 0.0375 0.6995 2.62%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1085 -2.18%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0388 0.25%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0169 -0.02%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1363 -0.98%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5174 1.81%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0577 -0.50%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0567 -0.25%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.3204 1.42%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0080 0.61%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0020 -0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0398 0.30%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0975 -0.33%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0040 0.01%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.1274 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 1.0000 1.48%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 252.5000 -1.01%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0028 -1.88%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0451 -8.48%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0682 -9.28%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0272 -19.87%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0608 -12.99%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1673 -42.76%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2827 0.70%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1064 -4.20%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0336 -36.24%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0384 12.66%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0306 -4.55%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,584 for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14762) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11179).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5949 -$1,116.88
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0196 -$1.81
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2877 -$376.55
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3328 -$354.96
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1883 $122.27
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.4202 $804.00
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.2605 $169.28
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2590 -$229.60
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0075 -$25.52
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0226 -$4.17
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0557 $52.00
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.2816 $389.75
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0226 -$18.71
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0015 $10.05
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1822 $111.85
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2169 $118.45
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.2169 -$107.39
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0211 $51.79
Low Income -305.7985 0.7169 -$219.22
Homeless 983.9044 0.0949 $93.35
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0392 -$50.30
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0136 $13.69
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1386 $118.40
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5045 -$143.02
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0648 -$40.82
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0693 -$32.05
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.3117 $50.25
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0120 $34.01
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0030 -$0.55
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0422 -$69.95
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0919 -$49.58
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0060 $0.63
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.1551 -$0.67
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 1.0000 -$27.87
Median Days in Program 0.5942 252.0000 $149.74
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0028 -$8.80
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0451 $496.12
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0682 $1,470.34
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0272 -$1,510.32
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0608 $2,724.98
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1673 $2,378.17
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2827 $5,759.14
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1064 $754.32
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0336 $1,914.85
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0384 $1,672.59
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0306 -$308.84

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 47.1% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.322) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.852).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5990 -16.52%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0308 -2.49%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3374 -30.45%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2985 -20.89%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1805 -29.61%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.3097 -0.53%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.1600 -0.26%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2226 0.09%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0215 -0.34%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0503 9.91%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2236 -6.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0318 3.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0010 -0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0062 1.17%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2564 0.56%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.5282 10.44%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0421 0.08%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.3959 -2.82%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0010 0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0246 1.36%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0174 -1.55%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 1.0000 -5.03%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 178.0000 -5.81%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0605 -2.08%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0028 2.12%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0451 43.20%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0682 39.77%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0272 -116.58%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0608 -86.63%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1673 242.13%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2827 199.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1064 67.04%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0336 170.71%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0384 -28.18%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0306 -3.57%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 65.3% for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.186) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.533).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4841 3.88%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4217 4.58%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2189 -1.88%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1109 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1361 -0.86%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.2061 4.79%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.1915 -4.51%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1553 -2.50%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0024 0.23%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0104 -0.32%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0151 0.37%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.3146 -0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1361 0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0168 -0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0859 3.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1964 -13.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.1022 -5.36%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.0714 0.62%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0722 -0.65%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0636 -2.26%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0456 0.99%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0115 -0.02%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0394 0.80%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1875 1.74%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0309 -0.21%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0311 0.58%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0022 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7792 24.73%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.1397 -2.15%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6201 -2.39%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0037 -0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0213 -0.22%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0002 -0.16%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0018 -0.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0203 2.21%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0429 -2.43%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 20.0000 -0.55%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0028 0.47%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0451 6.95%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0682 6.91%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0272 -1.25%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0608 18.03%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1673 15.77%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2827 36.27%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1064 6.30%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0336 13.10%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0384 6.53%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0306 1.05%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,446 for Massachusetts for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 44215) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36768).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4886 -$1,356
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4425 $676
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2298 $51
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1128 $195
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1083 $432
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.2037 $307
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.1896 -$244
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1606 -$470
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0024 -$6
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0100 -$55
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0149 $159
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.3202 -$565
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1395 -$304
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0176 -$38
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0881 $185
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.2061 $15
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.1037 -$520
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.0878 $40
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0672 -$78
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0500 -$256
Veteran -913.8967 0.0412 -$38
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0113 $18
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0424 $28
Low Income 634.4633 0.1811 $115
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0269 -$95
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0237 $45
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0019 -$21
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8528 -$187
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 9378.0000 $2,449
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.1313 $101
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.6495 $295
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0035 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0207 -$13
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0002 -$4
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0014 -$2
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0146 $159
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0430 $71
Median Days in Program 0.8717 21.0000 $18
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0028 $103
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0451 $1,930
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0682 $3,253
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0272 $308
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0608 $3,808
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1673 $11,354
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2827 $14,557
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1064 $4,578
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0336 $1,398
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0384 $1,971
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0306 -$156

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x