Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Rhode Island

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Rhode Island in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Rhode Island in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 84.7% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.793) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.054).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4528 5.89%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5318 -1.64%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1464 -2.26%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0424 -0.33%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0424 -2.54%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.2274 1.85%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0347 -0.81%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1869 1.61%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0135 -0.18%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0289 0.14%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0443 -0.52%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4123 -5.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2139 -2.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0559 0.55%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0462 -0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1657 2.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0405 -0.58%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3680 7.23%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0617 0.78%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0193 -0.35%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0328 0.95%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.1175 -0.36%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1040 -0.98%
Low Income 0.0081 0.5973 0.48%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0096 -0.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1927 2.99%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0019 -0.04%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6012 11.36%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0925 0.15%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0559 -0.08%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0077 0.11%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0655 0.41%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0019 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0154 -0.03%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0366 0.16%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.5395 1.19%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 165.0000 -3.02%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0017 0.36%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0437 3.77%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0634 1.20%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0131 -6.96%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0681 -33.12%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1450 54.47%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2759 22.72%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1283 -11.45%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0388 17.56%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0516 11.43%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0378 2.58%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,718 for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 44838) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-37119).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4501 -$1,279
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5383 -$464
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1439 -$452
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0371 -$196
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0348 -$211
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.2274 $53
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0348 -$154
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1856 -$432
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0162 -$103
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0232 -$62
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0371 $259
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3898 $141
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2251 $186
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0603 -$80
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0487 $275
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1879 $762
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0418 $357
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.4176 $403
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0719 $261
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0162 -$16
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0371 -$50
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.1160 -$513
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1160 $17
Low Income -332.4067 0.5708 -$190
Homeless -446.4262 0.0046 -$2
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1601 $322
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0023 -$5
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6636 $536
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 5889.0000 $2,151
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0766 $154
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0650 $45
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0093 -$24
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0719 $66
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0023 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0139 -$82
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0325 $27
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.5197 -$107
Median Days in Program 3.2489 155.5000 $505
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0017 $41
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0437 $1,413
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0634 $2,487
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0131 -$629
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0681 $277
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1450 $14,026
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2759 $15,494
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1283 $7,398
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0388 $418
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0516 $2,047
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0378 -$231

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 27.1% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.742) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.47).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6513 -23.54%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.4667 24.35%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1487 -1.04%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0359 -3.58%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0256 7.49%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.2410 -34.84%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0513 10.93%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2205 -12.50%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0205 1.75%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0359 7.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3538 -4.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.2051 -3.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.1179 0.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0667 -5.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1538 -3.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0308 5.66%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3231 11.78%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0513 -1.56%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0821 -2.14%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0359 0.90%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0923 8.13%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2000 4.27%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0974 7.61%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.5590 -0.07%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2154 1.40%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0154 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.1231 -1.60%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0462 2.28%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0359 -1.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.8410 6.16%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 165.0000 5.85%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 83.0000 -2.02%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0974 -0.08%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0017 1.69%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0437 39.03%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0634 76.83%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0131 -57.25%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0681 215.88%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1450 109.82%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2759 273.90%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1283 33.11%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0388 127.47%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0516 -0.74%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0378 -51.24%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 87.3% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.92) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.793).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5323 3.17%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4078 0.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3041 -0.51%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1267 1.34%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1037 -1.98%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.1751 2.08%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0138 -0.40%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1244 -0.45%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0161 -0.16%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0253 -0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2696 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2396 -4.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0484 -0.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0806 -0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1567 -2.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.1175 -1.42%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0922 0.98%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0323 -0.08%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0253 -0.13%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0668 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0991 -2.50%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0714 0.32%
Low Income -0.0518 0.3733 -1.93%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0023 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0668 2.52%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0069 -0.16%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8226 9.30%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1452 0.83%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6060 1.26%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1221 0.90%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0945 0.47%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0115 0.94%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9124 -4.68%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 216.0000 0.17%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0017 -0.34%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0437 -2.04%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0634 -10.81%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0131 -12.93%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0681 -42.70%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1450 -52.23%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2759 -55.02%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1283 -36.59%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0388 11.80%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0516 6.35%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0378 1.56%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,475 for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40235) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-31760).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5528 -$1,051
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4528 $505
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3194 -$40
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1111 -$236
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0528 -$132
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.1944 -$167
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0139 -$65
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1333 -$205
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0139 -$49
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0250 -$93
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.2806 -$393
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2333 -$444
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0556 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0806 $123
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1583 $185
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.1056 $227
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0889 $151
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0333 $126
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0111 $3
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0556 $80
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.1056 -$314
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0861 -$68
Low Income -538.7097 0.3861 -$208
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0750 $135
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0056 $1
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8528 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9118.0000 $836
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1250 $169
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6528 $45
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1083 -$270
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0917 $16
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0111 -$23
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.8972 -$362
Median Days in Program 2.2222 202.0000 $449
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0017 -$46
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0437 $1,602
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0634 $2,990
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0131 -$3,399
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0681 $5,845
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1450 $13,775
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2759 $14,117
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1283 $5,642
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0388 -$176
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0516 $1,149
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0378 -$219

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 52.5% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.166) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.641).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5045 -7.61%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5182 -3.39%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2864 6.91%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1000 4.58%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0682 6.23%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.1227 -8.16%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0318 -1.70%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0636 -2.10%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0182 4.81%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0136 0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.3500 -6.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2227 -5.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0591 -1.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0682 1.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.2364 -2.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0318 -1.36%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0545 -0.12%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0091 -0.24%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0273 -3.95%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0364 -3.36%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0955 4.31%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0773 2.85%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0545 2.56%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8682 2.49%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1455 5.65%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0818 2.91%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0682 -0.42%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0045 -0.20%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9409 -9.06%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 164.0000 -5.27%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 91.0000 -2.49%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1727 2.80%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0017 -1.37%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0437 19.45%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0634 62.45%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0131 -76.68%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0681 83.01%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1450 232.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2759 197.62%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1283 19.40%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0388 253.30%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0516 -14.70%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0378 -40.92%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.8% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.156) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.874).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5230 3.11%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0339 0.42%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.3293 -4.73%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3172 -6.51%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1574 0.17%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.3269 -2.05%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0169 0.34%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.2373 -0.98%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0194 -1.03%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0436 -1.46%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0557 0.84%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.2397 1.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0169 -0.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0024 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0024 0.12%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2010 5.52%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2736 0.97%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0363 -0.17%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.1186 -1.65%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9903 3.71%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0242 -0.49%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0969 0.61%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0484 -0.05%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1816 -1.30%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.7506 2.62%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0024 -0.02%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0024 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.0315 0.14%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0339 -0.51%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0194 0.14%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0218 -0.07%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2446 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.0847 0.13%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 225.0000 -0.90%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0017 -1.15%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0437 -8.22%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0634 -8.62%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0131 -9.53%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0681 -14.54%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1450 -37.06%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2759 0.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1283 -5.06%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0388 -41.86%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0516 17.03%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0378 -5.62%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,263 for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 16199) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-12936).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5848 -$1,097.91
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0242 -$2.24
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.3010 -$394.08
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.2941 -$313.67
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1903 $123.61
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.3287 $628.99
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0173 $11.24
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2284 -$202.42
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0208 -$70.35
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0346 -$6.38
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0623 $58.12
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.2664 $368.73
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0208 -$17.19
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0035 $0.60
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0035 $23.09
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.2630 $161.41
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2353 $128.52
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0242 -$11.99
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.1211 $297.48
Low Income -305.7985 0.9896 -$302.62
Homeless 983.9044 0.0242 $23.83
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1003 -$128.91
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0450 $45.42
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2180 $186.28
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.7578 -$214.82
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0035 -$2.18
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0035 -$1.60
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.0208 $3.35
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0277 -$5.10
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0277 -$45.92
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0242 -$13.07
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2595 -$1.12
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.0934 -$2.60
Median Days in Program 0.5942 231.0000 $137.26
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0017 -$5.36
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0437 $480.66
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0634 $1,366.28
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0131 -$724.47
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0681 $3,049.03
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1450 $2,061.29
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2759 $5,619.98
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1283 $909.30
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0388 $2,211.53
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0516 $2,248.85
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0378 -$381.44

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 47.0% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.894) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.423).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5421 -14.95%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0520 -4.21%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3342 -30.16%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3342 -23.38%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1634 -26.80%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.3540 -0.60%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0173 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.2450 0.10%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0347 -0.55%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0866 17.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.1584 -4.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0223 2.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0025 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.2822 0.62%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.7698 15.21%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0050 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.0248 -0.18%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0173 0.48%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0124 0.69%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.0396 -0.20%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 153.0000 -4.99%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1262 -4.34%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0017 1.29%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0437 41.86%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0634 36.95%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0131 -55.92%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0681 -96.93%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1450 209.87%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2759 194.86%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1283 80.81%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0388 197.16%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0516 -37.89%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0378 -4.41%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 70.5% for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.345) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.64).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.5038 4.03%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4189 4.55%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2309 -1.99%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1221 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1522 -0.96%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0698 1.62%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0152 -0.36%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1031 -1.66%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0047 0.45%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0193 -0.59%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0194 0.48%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.2926 -0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2045 0.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0391 -0.17%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0846 2.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1602 -10.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0838 -4.40%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1553 1.34%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0330 -0.30%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0602 -2.14%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0897 1.95%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0107 -0.02%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0142 0.29%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1113 1.03%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0159 -0.11%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0174 0.32%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0023 -0.05%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8691 27.58%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0286 -0.44%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.6478 -2.49%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0222 -0.20%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0098 -0.10%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0057 0.62%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0019 -0.11%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 32.0000 -0.88%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0017 0.28%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0437 6.74%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0634 6.42%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0131 -0.60%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0681 20.18%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1450 13.67%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2759 35.40%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1283 7.59%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0388 15.13%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0516 8.78%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0378 1.30%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,918 for Rhode Island for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 43659) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36740).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.5119 -$1,420
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4440 $678
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2407 $54
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1223 $211
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1071 $427
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0728 $110
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0148 -$19
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1115 -$326
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0052 -$13
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0174 -$97
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0180 $192
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.2919 -$515
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2054 -$447
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0414 -$90
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0859 $180
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1660 $12
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0772 -$387
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1648 $75
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0347 -$40
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0468 -$239
Veteran -913.8967 0.0811 -$74
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0130 $20
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0169 $11
Low Income 634.4633 0.1136 $72
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0132 -$46
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0163 $31
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0017 -$18
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8961 -$197
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 8121.0000 $2,121
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0261 $20
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.6550 $298
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0224 $6
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0117 -$7
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0042 $45
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0019 $3
Median Days in Program 0.8717 32.0000 $28
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0017 $63
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0437 $1,869
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0634 $3,023
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0131 $148
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0681 $4,261
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1450 $9,841
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2759 $14,205
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1283 $5,519
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0388 $1,614
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0516 $2,651
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0378 -$192

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x