Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Maine

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Maine in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Maine in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 73.0% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.636) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.094).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.6422 8.36%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5978 -1.84%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1822 -2.82%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0667 -0.52%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0467 -2.80%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0222 0.18%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0044 -0.10%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1778 1.53%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0044 -0.06%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0289 0.14%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0133 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.6022 -7.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1444 -1.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0156 0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0533 -0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1089 1.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0267 -0.38%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3400 6.68%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.1000 1.27%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1844 -3.34%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0378 1.10%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.1844 -0.56%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.3822 -3.60%
Low Income 0.0081 0.9200 0.75%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0600 -0.32%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0733 1.14%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0267 -0.49%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5022 9.49%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.3511 0.55%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.3200 -0.47%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0111 0.15%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4711 2.92%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.1178 -0.58%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.1133 -0.23%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0956 0.42%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.3556 0.78%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 204.0000 -3.73%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0117 2.48%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0492 4.24%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0950 1.80%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0126 -6.70%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0500 -24.33%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1138 42.75%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2749 22.64%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1151 -10.27%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0293 13.26%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0439 9.72%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0333 2.27%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $4,934 for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40005) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35072).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.6572 -$1,867
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6258 -$539
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1855 -$583
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0503 -$266
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0220 -$133
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0189 $4
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0031 -$14
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.2075 -$483
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0031 -$20
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0220 -$59
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0063 $44
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.6447 $233
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1226 $101
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0126 -$17
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0440 $248
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1006 $408
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0252 $215
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3994 $385
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.1038 $376
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.1478 -$146
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0314 -$42
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.2138 -$945
Single Parent 145.7630 0.3931 $57
Low Income -332.4067 0.9119 -$303
Homeless -446.4262 0.0440 -$20
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0692 $139
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0252 -$49
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.5629 $455
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 3572.9100 $1,305
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.2925 $588
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.3082 $211
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0126 -$32
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4906 $448
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.1289 $14
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0849 -$502
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0912 $77
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.3522 -$72
Median Days in Program 3.2489 203.5000 $661
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0117 $280
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0492 $1,590
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0950 $3,726
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0126 -$606
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0500 $204
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1138 $11,007
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2749 $15,440
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1151 $6,635
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0293 $315
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0439 $1,740
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0333 -$204

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 41.4% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.419) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.004).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6923 -25.02%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6831 35.64%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1169 -0.82%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0338 -3.38%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0154 4.49%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0308 -4.45%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0031 0.66%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.1785 -10.12%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0123 1.05%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0092 1.82%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5354 -6.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1815 -3.34%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0369 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0369 -3.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0400 -0.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0154 2.83%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4677 17.06%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1108 -3.37%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0862 -2.25%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0154 0.39%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.1200 10.57%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.4000 8.54%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1385 10.81%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.5569 -0.07%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.3169 2.07%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0123 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.6400 -8.30%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0677 3.34%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.1354 -3.86%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.2462 1.80%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 147.0000 5.21%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 108.0000 -2.63%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1200 -0.10%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0117 11.67%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0492 43.93%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0950 115.13%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0126 -55.09%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0500 158.58%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1138 86.18%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2749 272.94%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1151 29.70%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0293 96.26%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0439 -0.63%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0333 -45.19%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 74.8% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.746) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.495).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5564 3.32%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3852 0.73%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3191 -0.54%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.2101 2.23%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0700 -1.33%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0195 0.23%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0117 -0.34%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0623 -0.22%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0233 -0.23%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0117 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.3969 -1.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.2685 -5.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0467 -0.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0545 -0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1440 -2.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0272 -0.33%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0428 0.45%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0233 -0.06%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0973 -0.51%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0739 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0506 -1.28%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1829 0.82%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4358 -2.26%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0156 0.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0389 1.47%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0700 -1.59%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8288 9.37%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1712 0.98%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7899 1.64%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0661 0.49%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3307 1.64%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0350 -0.44%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0195 1.58%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0195 -1.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.4202 -2.15%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 219.5000 0.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0117 -2.36%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0492 -2.30%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0950 -16.20%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0126 -12.44%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0500 -31.37%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1138 -40.98%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2749 -54.83%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1151 -32.81%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0293 8.91%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0439 5.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0333 1.37%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,825 for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36300) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29474).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5700 -$1,084
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4010 $447
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3382 -$43
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1836 -$390
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0628 -$157
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0242 -$21
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0145 -$68
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0580 -$89
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0242 -$85
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0097 -$36
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4106 -$575
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.2464 -$469
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0386 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0676 $103
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1449 $169
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0290 $62
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0338 $58
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0242 $91
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0773 $22
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0580 $84
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0483 -$144
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1932 -$152
Low Income -538.7097 0.4155 -$224
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0145 $114
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0242 $44
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0580 $11
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8551 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7639.6300 $700
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1594 $215
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.8019 $55
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0773 -$193
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3188 $56
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0242 $11
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0145 -$31
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0193 -$82
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.4106 -$166
Median Days in Program 2.2222 208.0000 $462
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0117 -$318
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0492 $1,803
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0950 $4,481
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0126 -$3,271
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0500 $4,294
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1138 $10,810
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2749 $14,068
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1151 $5,060
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0293 -$133
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0439 $977
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0333 -$193

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 50.5% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.105) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.6).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.4493 -6.78%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.3986 -2.61%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2754 6.65%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1957 8.96%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0942 8.61%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0145 -0.96%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0362 -1.19%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0145 3.84%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0217 0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4348 -8.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2319 -5.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0652 -1.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0580 1.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1087 -1.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0217 -0.93%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0362 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0435 -1.15%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0725 -10.49%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0725 -6.69%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0145 0.65%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1594 5.88%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.1087 5.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8768 2.51%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1014 3.94%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0290 1.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.6449 -3.97%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0145 -0.63%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0217 -8.42%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.3333 -3.21%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 182.0000 -5.85%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 102.0000 -2.79%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0797 1.29%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0117 -9.42%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0492 21.89%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0950 93.59%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0126 -73.78%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0500 60.98%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1138 182.64%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2749 196.93%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1151 17.40%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0293 191.28%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0439 -12.50%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0333 -36.09%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 66.9% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.055) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.724).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5615 3.34%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0033 0.04%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1794 -2.58%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3189 -6.55%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2625 0.28%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0266 -0.17%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0100 0.20%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0698 -0.29%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0233 -0.78%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0166 0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5947 4.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0365 -1.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0066 0.33%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2458 6.76%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.0930 0.33%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.4385 -2.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0465 -0.65%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9003 3.38%
Homeless -0.2008 0.1694 -3.40%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1329 0.84%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0199 -0.02%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2292 -1.64%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.3422 1.20%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3522 -3.05%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.3455 -1.50%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5615 2.48%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0299 -0.45%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0831 0.62%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0532 -0.18%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0332 0.12%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.6545 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.3090 0.46%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 215.0000 -0.86%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0117 -7.91%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0492 -9.25%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0950 -12.92%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0126 -9.17%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0500 -10.68%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1138 -29.08%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2749 0.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1151 -4.54%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0293 -31.61%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0439 14.48%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0333 -4.96%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,907 for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14505) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10598).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.6146 -$1,153.88
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0052 -$0.48
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1771 -$231.81
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3177 -$338.83
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2604 $169.14
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0260 $49.83
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0156 $10.15
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0677 -$60.01
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0104 -$1.92
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0104 $9.72
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.6146 $850.55
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0365 -$30.19
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0104 $69.50
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3229 $198.20
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1042 $56.90
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.3750 -$185.69
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0469 $115.14
Low Income -305.7985 0.8958 -$273.94
Homeless 983.9044 0.1458 $143.49
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1302 -$167.27
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2708 $231.43
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.3177 -$90.06
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.2708 -$170.70
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.3594 -$166.24
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5677 $91.50
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0365 -$6.71
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0521 -$86.39
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0521 -$28.11
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0417 $4.34
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6198 -$2.69
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.3281 -$9.15
Median Days in Program 0.5942 229.5000 $136.37
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0117 -$36.97
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0492 $540.89
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0950 $2,047.40
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0126 -$697.09
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0500 $2,239.78
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1138 $1,617.54
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2749 $5,600.43
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1151 $815.59
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0293 $1,670.04
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0439 $1,911.80
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0333 -$336.45

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 37.0% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.135) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.765).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.6798 -18.75%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0056 -0.46%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.1573 -14.20%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.4213 -29.48%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1966 -32.26%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0281 -0.05%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0112 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0674 0.03%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0112 -0.18%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0112 2.22%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.6011 -16.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0337 3.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0112 -0.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0056 1.07%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1461 0.32%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.3146 6.22%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.2472 0.49%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6517 -4.64%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0056 0.15%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0281 1.56%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0506 -4.48%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.2809 -1.41%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 121.0000 -3.95%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1685 -5.80%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0117 8.89%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0492 47.10%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0950 55.38%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0126 -53.81%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0500 -71.20%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1138 164.69%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2749 194.18%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1151 72.48%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0293 148.88%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0439 -32.21%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0333 -3.89%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 66.4% for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.294) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.631).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.3930 3.15%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.3752 4.07%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2351 -2.02%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1417 -0.10%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1480 -0.93%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0163 0.38%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0066 -0.16%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0366 -0.59%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0138 1.34%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0176 -0.54%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0097 0.24%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5734 -0.99%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1735 0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0097 -0.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0244 0.85%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0770 -5.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0190 -1.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1587 1.37%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0712 -0.64%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.1025 -3.64%
Veteran 0.2170 0.1037 2.25%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0176 -0.03%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1230 2.49%
Low Income 0.0926 0.4895 4.53%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0170 -0.11%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0075 0.14%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0079 -0.18%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7233 22.95%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0652 -1.00%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7426 -2.86%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0035 -0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0024 -0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0074 0.80%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0042 -0.24%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 62.0000 -1.71%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0117 1.96%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0492 7.58%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0950 9.62%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0126 -0.58%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0500 14.82%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1138 10.73%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2749 35.27%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1151 6.81%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0293 11.43%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0439 7.46%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0333 1.15%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,881 for Maine for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40934) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35053).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.3811 -$1,057
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.3875 $592
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2400 $54
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1385 $239
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1321 $527
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0154 $23
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0071 -$9
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0406 -$119
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0134 -$33
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0161 -$90
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0081 $86
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5846 -$1,031
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1757 -$382
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0069 -$15
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0219 $46
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0742 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0152 -$76
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1639 $75
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0655 -$76
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0786 -$401
Veteran -913.8967 0.0885 -$81
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0187 $29
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1224 $81
Low Income 634.4633 0.4908 $311
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0127 -$45
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0067 $13
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0060 -$65
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8361 -$184
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5861.9200 $1,531
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0454 $35
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7609 $346
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0035 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0018 -$2
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0071 $78
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0039 $6
Median Days in Program 0.8717 62.0000 $54
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0117 $432
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0492 $2,104
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0950 $4,530
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0126 $142
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0500 $3,130
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1138 $7,723
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2749 $14,155
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1151 $4,950
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0293 $1,219
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0439 $2,253
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0333 -$170

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x