Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Indiana

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2022-2023. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Indiana in PY 2020 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Indiana in PY 2022 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2022 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 77.9% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.409) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.188).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.1165 0.5184 -6.04%
Age 25 to 44 0.0196 0.4706 0.92%
Age 45 to 54 0.1883 0.2088 3.93%
Age 55 to 59 -0.1609 0.1003 -1.61%
Age 60 or more -0.5644 0.0735 -4.15%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1027 0.0470 0.48%
Race: Asian 0.1815 0.0131 0.24%
Race: Black 0.0115 0.1941 0.22%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.8625 0.0023 -0.20%
Race: American Indian 0.1109 0.0085 0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.0435 0.0066 -0.03%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0737 0.4580 3.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.0521 0.1715 -0.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.3553 0.0501 -1.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2739 0.0831 2.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.0983 0.1003 0.99%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 0.1488 0.0273 0.41%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0897 0.2498 2.24%
In School at Program Entry 0.1211 0.0609 0.74%
Individual with a Disability -0.2081 0.0619 -1.29%
Veteran -0.3623 0.0758 -2.75%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2962 0.0104 -0.31%
Single Parent 0.1951 0.1315 2.56%
Low Income -0.0398 0.5062 -2.02%
Homeless -0.0696 0.0346 -0.24%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.1192 0.1382 -1.65%
Displaced Homemaker -0.4256 0.0039 -0.16%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2680 0.7778 20.85%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0604 0.1249 0.75%
UI Claimant -0.0044 0.3339 -0.15%
UI Exhaustee 0.0645 0.0108 0.07%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.0520 0.0052 0.03%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.2224 0.0218 -0.49%
TANF Recipient -0.1618 0.0019 -0.03%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.1424 0.8939 12.72%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment -3.5829 0.0071 -2.56%
Construction Employment 0.4979 0.0484 2.41%
Manufacturing Employment -1.6760 0.1735 -29.09%
Information Services Employment -4.3772 0.0113 -4.95%
Financial Services Employment -4.3740 0.0455 -19.89%
Professional and Business Services Employment -1.8276 0.1128 -20.62%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.8037 0.2301 -41.50%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.6022 0.0968 -25.20%
Other Services Employment -1.8292 0.0284 -5.19%
Public Administration -3.0905 0.0436 -13.47%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -1.7900 0.0557 -9.97%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of $6,920 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -18398) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (25318).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -1297.0539 0.5236 -$679.13
Age 25 to 44 417.9959 0.4794 $200.39
Age 45 to 54 -2087.0759 0.2135 -$445.56
Age 55 to 59 540.9828 0.0931 $50.38
Age 60 or more -7312.3854 0.0562 -$410.81
Hispanic Ethnicity -2450.8817 0.0512 -$125.45
Race: Asian -1202.0930 0.0152 -$18.31
Race: Black -2487.3450 0.1888 -$469.52
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 600.7172 0.0027 $1.65
Race: American Indian 925.5438 0.0085 $7.86
Race: Multiple 1786.1417 0.0072 $12.93
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 220.3100 0.4532 $99.84
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -973.7394 0.1763 -$171.65
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1170.6797 0.0499 $58.46
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1332.5753 0.0859 $114.46
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 6553.8279 0.1019 $667.66
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2701.2039 0.0285 $76.89
Employed at Program Entry 1230.1964 0.2861 $352.01
In School at Program Entry 3419.0385 0.0659 $225.37
Individual with a Disability -2793.5987 0.0512 -$142.99
Veteran 1373.5872 0.0754 $103.58
Limited English Proficiency -1151.7181 0.0110 -$12.65
Single Parent 2287.4013 0.1286 $294.14
Low Income 5.8330 0.4737 $2.76
Homeless -1146.1920 0.0287 -$32.91
Individual who was Incarcerated 2209.0540 0.1238 $273.58
Displaced Homemaker -4781.8104 0.0042 -$20.30
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 1796.8740 0.8145 $1,463.52
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1776 6876.6150 $1,221.22
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -1228.0227 0.1059 -$130.01
UI Claimant -428.5231 0.3176 -$136.10
UI Exhaustee -2691.8032 0.0092 -$24.87
Received Other Public Assistance -658.4235 0.0047 -$3.12
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1730.4896 0.0160 $27.65
TANF Recipient -4085.3144 0.0017 -$7.14
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 2092.2363 0.8939 $1,870.21
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 71514.9331 0.0071 $510.13
Construction Employment 45888.5923 0.0484 $2,221.62
Manufacturing Employment -50584.4382 0.1735 -$8,778.28
Information Services Employment -127934.7190 0.0113 -$1,447.91
Financial Services Employment -27480.3605 0.0455 -$1,249.53
Professional and Business Services Employment -36313.0884 0.1128 -$4,096.21
Educational or Health Care Employment -32119.7537 0.2301 -$7,390.02
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -22488.2694 0.0968 -$2,177.75
Other Services Employment -90961.7792 0.0284 -$2,580.31
Public Administration 61252.7890 0.0436 $2,669.31
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -6692.7610 0.0557 -$372.83

Employment Rate 4th Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 75.4% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -3.006) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (3.76).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.0194 0.5202 -1.01%
Age 25 to 44 -0.1288 0.4816 -6.21%
Age 45 to 54 -0.2914 0.2101 -6.12%
Age 55 to 59 -0.6459 0.0945 -6.11%
Age 60 or more -0.4948 0.0695 -3.44%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0879 0.0470 -0.41%
Race: Asian -0.2060 0.0081 -0.17%
Race: Black -0.1379 0.1930 -2.66%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.3114 0.0018 -0.06%
Race: American Indian -0.1777 0.0079 -0.14%
Race: Multiple 0.1421 0.0069 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0726 0.4691 3.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0613 0.1724 1.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.1354 0.0493 0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2256 0.0782 1.76%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.2066 0.1005 2.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 0.2519 0.0297 0.75%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0193 0.2620 0.51%
In School at Program Entry 0.0287 0.0577 0.17%
Individual with a Disability -0.0652 0.0569 -0.37%
Veteran -0.3548 0.0764 -2.71%
Limited English Proficiency 0.0164 0.0100 0.02%
Single Parent 0.0096 0.1419 0.14%
Low Income -0.0263 0.5158 -1.36%
Homeless -0.1566 0.0314 -0.49%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.1158 0.1427 -1.65%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1050 0.0055 -0.06%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1229 0.7679 9.43%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0172 0.1296 0.22%
UI Claimant 0.0426 0.3239 1.38%
UI Exhaustee 0.5620 0.0134 0.75%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.0349 0.0047 0.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.1747 0.0221 -0.39%
TANF Recipient -0.1714 0.0015 -0.02%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.0541 0.8911 4.82%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment -2.2271 0.0071 -1.59%
Construction Employment 0.0773 0.0484 0.37%
Manufacturing Employment -3.7794 0.1735 -65.59%
Information Services Employment -10.6036 0.0113 -12.00%
Financial Services Employment -7.2091 0.0455 -32.78%
Professional and Business Services Employment -4.4266 0.1128 -49.93%
Educational or Health Care Employment -3.3978 0.2301 -78.18%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.3667 0.0968 -22.92%
Other Services Employment -7.8944 0.0284 -22.39%
Public Administration 0.7594 0.0436 3.31%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -2.2994 0.0557 -12.81%

Credential Attainment

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 71.3% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.587) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.874).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.0755 0.5239 -3.96%
Age 25 to 44 0.1827 0.5594 10.22%
Age 45 to 54 0.1898 0.1533 2.91%
Age 55 to 59 0.2852 0.0478 1.36%
Age 60 or more -0.0961 0.0186 -0.18%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0069 0.0460 0.03%
Race: Asian 0.0381 0.0070 0.03%
Race: Black -0.0231 0.2255 -0.52%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.2025 0.0017 0.04%
Race: American Indian 0.0536 0.0105 0.06%
Race: Multiple 0.2496 0.0082 0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.1867 0.5245 9.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.1215 0.1818 2.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.2349 0.0542 1.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.0885 0.0612 0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1357 0.0466 0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.7820 0.0082 -0.64%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0256 0.4108 1.05%
In School at Program Entry 0.1405 0.1131 1.59%
Individual with a Disability -0.0166 0.0472 -0.08%
Veteran 0.0743 0.0449 0.33%
Limited English Proficiency 0.0534 0.0076 0.04%
Single Parent -0.0705 0.1748 -1.23%
Low Income -0.0094 0.5414 -0.51%
Homeless -0.3808 0.0216 -0.82%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1334 0.1544 2.06%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1189 0.0082 -0.10%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0755 0.7430 -5.61%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.1180 0.1317 1.55%
UI Claimant -0.0194 0.1766 -0.34%
UI Exhaustee -0.1884 0.0280 -0.53%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.2850 0.0029 -0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0935 0.0181 0.17%
TANF Recipient -0.2344 0.0017 -0.04%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 1.2664 0.9994 126.57%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 0.0744 0.0071 0.05%
Construction Employment 1.7759 0.0484 8.60%
Manufacturing Employment 10.3016 0.1735 178.77%
Information Services Employment -1.9904 0.0113 -2.25%
Financial Services Employment 5.0816 0.0455 23.11%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.4562 0.1128 84.11%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.5763 0.2301 36.27%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 4.0540 0.0968 39.26%
Other Services Employment 7.4646 0.0284 21.17%
Public Administration 3.9904 0.0436 17.39%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 0.7558 0.0557 4.21%

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 63.2% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.59) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.222).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.1617 0.5169 -8.36%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0801 0.5592 -4.48%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1626 0.1588 -2.58%
Age 55 to 59 -0.4178 0.0504 -2.11%
Age 60 or more -0.5329 0.0290 -1.55%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.1564 0.0742 -1.16%
Race: Asian 0.0435 0.0090 0.04%
Race: Black -0.1943 0.2620 -5.09%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.1849 0.0014 0.03%
Race: American Indian -0.1621 0.0105 -0.17%
Race: Multiple 0.0809 0.0119 0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.3201 0.5568 17.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.3711 0.1312 4.87%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.1205 0.0571 0.69%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2763 0.0566 1.56%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.4706 0.0352 1.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.0229 0.0081 0.83%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1405 0.3942 5.54%
In School at Program Entry 0.0140 0.1075 0.15%
Individual with a Disability -0.3449 0.0552 -1.90%
Veteran 0.3439 0.0428 1.47%
Limited English Proficiency 0.3340 0.0124 0.41%
Single Parent 0.0441 0.1503 0.66%
Low Income -0.1185 0.5297 -6.28%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.1521 0.1184 -1.80%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0363 0.2920 -1.06%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0584 0.1655 0.97%
UI Claimant 0.0986 0.2848 2.81%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1951 0.0062 -0.12%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4656 0.0176 0.82%
TANF Recipient 0.1691 0.0033 0.06%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 52.0000 -1.23%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.4424 0.2825 -12.50%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment -8.2148 0.0071 -5.86%
Construction Employment -5.6564 0.0484 -27.38%
Manufacturing Employment -3.8947 0.1735 -67.59%
Information Services Employment 20.2496 0.0113 22.92%
Financial Services Employment 26.8702 0.0455 122.18%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.6019 0.1128 -29.35%
Educational or Health Care Employment -2.5836 0.2301 -59.44%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -4.2956 0.0968 -41.60%
Other Services Employment -17.5521 0.0284 -49.79%
Public Administration -0.8166 0.0436 -3.56%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -1.7367 0.0557 -9.67%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 77.4% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.085) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.859).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0079 0.5396 0.43%
Age 25 to 44 0.0018 0.3777 0.07%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0745 0.2897 -2.16%
Age 55 to 59 -0.1051 0.1606 -1.69%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1358 -0.85%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0499 0.0217 -0.11%
Race: Asian 0.3830 0.0077 0.29%
Race: Black -0.0065 0.1037 -0.07%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.6033 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3469 0.0050 -0.17%
Race: Multiple 0.2246 0.0007 0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0479 0.3837 1.84%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0625 0.1683 1.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0975 0.0338 -0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0243 0.1020 -0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.0241 0.1539 0.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 0.1019 0.0498 0.51%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0710 0.0666 0.47%
In School at Program Entry -0.0157 0.0221 -0.03%
Individual with a Disability -0.0360 0.0365 -0.13%
Veteran -0.3230 0.0616 -1.99%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2085 0.0037 -0.08%
Single Parent 0.0958 0.0883 0.85%
Low Income -0.0440 0.2526 -1.11%
Homeless 0.4362 0.0094 0.41%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.2136 0.0572 -1.22%
Displaced Homemaker -0.5537 0.0033 -0.19%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0251 0.9635 -2.41%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0343 0.0278 -0.10%
UI Claimant 0.0747 0.8605 6.43%
UI Exhaustee 0.0051 0.0060 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2951 0.0020 0.06%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5142 0.0057 0.29%
TANF Recipient 0.5100 0.0010 0.05%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.1413 0.9655 13.64%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 2.4002 0.0071 1.71%
Construction Employment 0.7397 0.0484 3.58%
Manufacturing Employment -2.0429 0.1735 -35.45%
Information Services Employment -0.3585 0.0113 -0.41%
Financial Services Employment -0.8798 0.0455 -4.00%
Professional and Business Services Employment -1.4509 0.1128 -16.37%
Educational or Health Care Employment -0.9848 0.2301 -22.66%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.5585 0.0968 -24.78%
Other Services Employment -1.7055 0.0284 -4.84%
Public Administration -1.1943 0.0436 -5.20%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -2.5066 0.0557 -13.96%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of $8,096 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -6219) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (14315).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -2003.9145 0.5280 -$1,058.05
Age 25 to 44 -2743.8516 0.3918 -$1,075.18
Age 45 to 54 -4619.7221 0.2996 -$1,384.05
Age 55 to 59 -6255.8949 0.1612 -$1,008.56
Age 60 or more -3495.6040 0.1084 -$378.83
Hispanic Ethnicity 1426.2740 0.0224 $31.94
Race: Asian -3317.0481 0.0072 -$23.77
Race: Black -2693.4087 0.1070 -$288.28
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -5032.7775 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -4074.6323 0.0054 -$21.90
Race: Multiple -4118.2794 0.0009 -$3.69
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 991.1643 0.3748 $371.52
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1574.3598 0.1688 $265.80
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1329.5695 0.0349 -$46.44
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -486.2616 0.1039 -$50.52
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 5283.6991 0.1581 $835.26
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 3662.1502 0.0528 $193.52
Employed at Program Entry 2636.6511 0.0752 $198.37
In School at Program Entry 1266.3079 0.0246 $31.19
Individual with a Disability -723.1142 0.0349 -$25.26
Veteran 1353.7638 0.0609 $82.45
Limited English Proficiency 2561.4423 0.0027 $6.88
Single Parent 2109.2898 0.0860 $181.36
Low Income 73.9467 0.2279 $16.86
Homeless 3087.9401 0.0076 $23.51
Individual who was Incarcerated 574.7035 0.0511 $29.34
Displaced Homemaker -3686.7002 0.0036 -$13.21
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -190.5456 0.9673 -$184.32
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3629 10066.2200 $3,653.18
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.7909 0.0260 $35.03
UI Claimant 411.1572 0.8451 $347.45
UI Exhaustee -814.9271 0.0058 -$4.74
Received Other Public Assistance 3137.8139 0.0018 $5.62
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1595.8917 0.0036 -$5.72
TANF Recipient 2074.0517 0.0009 $1.86
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 883.9128 0.9628 $851.06
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 58881.6530 0.0071 $420.02
Construction Employment 43095.5570 0.0484 $2,086.40
Manufacturing Employment -3643.6418 0.1735 -$632.31
Information Services Employment 56629.9460 0.0113 $640.91
Financial Services Employment 46858.1290 0.0455 $2,130.63
Professional and Business Services Employment 42893.2915 0.1128 $4,838.48
Educational or Health Care Employment -32098.3065 0.2301 -$7,385.08
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -44082.6293 0.0968 -$4,268.93
Other Services Employment -35961.7778 0.0284 -$1,020.13
Public Administration -93000.4301 0.0436 -$4,052.82
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -10161.6988 0.0557 -$566.08

Employment Rate 4th Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 77.0% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.223) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.547).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.1158 0.5571 -6.45%
Age 25 to 44 -0.1471 0.3804 -5.59%
Age 45 to 54 -0.3554 0.2984 -10.60%
Age 55 to 59 -0.2306 0.1515 -3.49%
Age 60 or more -0.0884 0.1401 -1.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1459 0.0257 0.37%
Race: Asian 0.3049 0.0073 0.22%
Race: Black -0.0952 0.1010 -0.96%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.1687 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0904 0.0064 -0.06%
Race: Multiple 0.0934 0.0025 0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0256 0.3879 0.99%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0311 0.1610 0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0049 0.0394 -0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0085 0.1016 -0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1331 0.1571 2.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.0324 0.0547 -0.18%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0151 0.0536 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry 0.0920 0.0162 0.15%
Individual with a Disability 0.0669 0.0313 0.21%
Veteran -0.3454 0.0642 -2.22%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0715 0.0036 -0.03%
Single Parent -0.0171 0.0943 -0.16%
Low Income -0.0220 0.2517 -0.55%
Homeless 0.0859 0.0100 0.09%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.0691 0.0483 -0.33%
Displaced Homemaker 0.0658 0.0061 0.04%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0204 0.9601 -1.96%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0016 0.0338 -0.01%
UI Claimant 0.0201 0.8772 1.76%
UI Exhaustee -0.1141 0.0106 -0.12%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1052 0.0011 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.1706 0.0059 0.10%
TANF Recipient 0.1822 0.0008 0.02%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.1603 0.9643 15.45%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 9.5544 0.0071 6.82%
Construction Employment 0.2697 0.0484 1.31%
Manufacturing Employment 0.5885 0.1735 10.21%
Information Services Employment -9.7192 0.0113 -11.00%
Financial Services Employment 1.5914 0.0455 7.24%
Professional and Business Services Employment -4.0395 0.1128 -45.57%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.6818 0.2301 15.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.8971 0.0968 18.37%
Other Services Employment 5.4716 0.0284 15.52%
Public Administration 5.0138 0.0436 21.85%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -1.0767 0.0557 -6.00%

Credential Attainment

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 71.5% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.622) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.907).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.1523 0.4968 -7.57%
Age 25 to 44 0.1318 0.5032 6.63%
Age 45 to 54 0.3678 0.3032 11.15%
Age 55 to 59 0.2400 0.1032 2.48%
Age 60 or more 0.0751 0.0516 0.39%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0651 0.0290 0.19%
Race: Asian -0.5722 0.0129 -0.74%
Race: Black 0.1636 0.1452 2.37%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.3955 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3463 0.0161 -0.56%
Race: Multiple 0.4396 0.0032 0.14%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0104 0.3387 -0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.0517 0.2161 -1.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0116 0.0323 -0.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3184 0.0645 2.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1385 0.0484 -0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.2680 0.0129 -0.35%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1787 0.0710 1.27%
In School at Program Entry 0.1224 0.0548 0.67%
Individual with a Disability -0.4389 0.0323 -1.42%
Veteran -0.0632 0.0774 -0.49%
Limited English Proficiency 0.1432 0.0065 0.09%
Single Parent -0.2468 0.1516 -3.74%
Low Income 0.0879 0.2871 2.52%
Homeless -0.2094 0.0129 -0.27%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.0782 0.0516 -0.40%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2298 0.0258 -0.59%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.1401 0.9258 -12.97%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1588 0.0452 -0.72%
UI Claimant -0.0690 0.7129 -4.92%
UI Exhaustee -0.1753 0.0548 -0.96%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1093 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.1954 0.0032 -0.06%
TANF Recipient -0.1232 0.0000 0.00%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 3.2149 1.0000 321.49%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 4.3679 0.0071 3.12%
Construction Employment -1.7009 0.0484 -8.23%
Manufacturing Employment 3.5473 0.1735 61.56%
Information Services Employment -22.6586 0.0113 -25.64%
Financial Services Employment 7.0385 0.0455 32.00%
Professional and Business Services Employment 6.8387 0.1128 77.14%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.5862 0.2301 13.49%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 3.8135 0.0968 36.93%
Other Services Employment -0.8859 0.0284 -2.51%
Public Administration 13.1356 0.0436 57.24%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 0.6448 0.0557 3.59%

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 65.8% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -5.655) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (6.313).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0643 0.4749 3.05%
Age 25 to 44 0.0060 0.4982 0.30%
Age 45 to 54 0.0517 0.2754 1.42%
Age 55 to 59 -0.1867 0.1040 -1.94%
Age 60 or more -0.3573 0.0600 -2.14%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0331 0.0453 0.15%
Race: Asian -0.1244 0.0073 -0.09%
Race: Black -0.0304 0.2313 -0.70%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.5990 0.0012 0.07%
Race: American Indian 0.0723 0.0122 0.09%
Race: Multiple -0.0764 0.0037 -0.03%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0859 0.4088 3.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.0946 0.1273 -1.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.1495 0.0306 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2307 0.0661 1.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.0698 0.0502 -0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 0.0873 0.0208 0.18%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0209 0.1040 0.22%
In School at Program Entry 0.0653 0.0257 0.17%
Individual with a Disability -0.1542 0.0330 -0.51%
Veteran 0.1505 0.0551 0.83%
Limited English Proficiency 0.0021 0.0159 0.00%
Single Parent 0.0845 0.1359 1.15%
Low Income -0.2532 0.2778 -7.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.2018 0.0612 1.23%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0672 0.3341 2.25%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.2812 0.1126 3.17%
UI Claimant 0.1520 0.7858 11.94%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2495 0.0122 0.31%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.6643 0.0049 -0.33%
TANF Recipient 0.1795 0.0012 0.02%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 88.0000 -2.70%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3492 0.2191 -7.65%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment -6.5069 0.0071 -4.64%
Construction Employment -17.3566 0.0484 -84.03%
Manufacturing Employment -10.0743 0.1735 -174.83%
Information Services Employment -6.6747 0.0113 -7.55%
Financial Services Employment 26.9421 0.0455 122.51%
Professional and Business Services Employment -5.2223 0.1128 -58.91%
Educational or Health Care Employment -10.8796 0.2301 -250.32%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -5.6885 0.0968 -55.09%
Other Services Employment -22.8569 0.0284 -64.84%
Public Administration 1.9831 0.0436 8.64%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -0.6895 0.0557 -3.84%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 79.0% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2.549) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (3.339).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0265 0.5298 1.41%
Age 14 to 15 0.1310 0.0069 0.09%
Age 16 to 17 -0.0511 0.4554 -2.33%
Age 18 to 19 0.0349 0.2642 0.92%
Age 20 to 21 -0.0082 0.1242 -0.10%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.1297 0.1363 -1.77%
Race: Asian -0.0279 0.0180 -0.05%
Race: Black -0.0800 0.2550 -2.04%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.2076 0.0037 -0.08%
Race: American Indian -0.4506 0.0120 -0.54%
Race: Multiple 0.0452 0.0249 0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.1938 0.2245 4.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3544 0.0203 -0.72%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.3194 0.0032 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.6208 0.0079 0.49%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2268 0.2540 5.76%
In School at Program Entry 0.1686 0.4952 8.35%
Individual with a Disability -0.1861 0.1972 -3.67%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0105 0.0406 -0.04%
Low Income -0.0179 0.8813 -1.57%
Homeless 0.1620 0.0199 0.32%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0002 0.0753 0.00%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 0.0258 0.1372 0.35%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0947 0.7704 7.30%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0194 0.2106 -0.41%
UI Claimant 0.1158 0.0166 0.19%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0098 0.0042 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0170 0.0152 0.03%
TANF Recipient 0.0814 0.0014 0.01%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -0.0341 0.2476 -0.85%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program -0.0473 0.9681 -4.58%
Natural Resources Employment -4.1019 0.0071 -2.93%
Economic Conditions
Construction Employment 1.7490 0.0484 8.47%
Manufacturing Employment -2.4824 0.1735 -43.08%
Information Services Employment -12.8135 0.0113 -14.50%
Financial Services Employment -8.3185 0.0455 -37.82%
Professional and Business Services Employment -4.3566 0.1128 -49.14%
Educational or Health Care Employment -3.9363 0.2301 -90.56%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -1.8896 0.0968 -18.30%
Other Services Employment -2.8091 0.0284 -7.97%
Public Administration -1.2924 0.0436 -5.63%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -0.6687 0.0557 -3.73%
-0.2567 0.0203 -0.52%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of $3,331 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3696) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-364).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -479.8578 0.5326 -$255.58
Age 14 to 15 -2427.8447 0.0080 -$19.44
Age 16 to 17 -2477.5208 0.4622 -$1,145.22
Age 18 to 19 -3145.8118 0.2660 -$836.84
Age 20 to 21 158.4882 0.1247 $19.77
Hispanic Ethnicity -490.2115 0.1390 -$68.15
Race: Asian 1320.1603 0.0200 $26.43
Race: Black -2125.1933 0.2614 -$555.61
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -292.7230 0.0034 -$1.00
Race: American Indian -2035.2920 0.0114 -$23.29
Race: Multiple 2613.3872 0.0257 $67.28
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 832.6305 0.2305 $191.96
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2506.9333 0.0206 -$51.63
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2739.7907 0.0029 -$7.84
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1178.8104 0.0069 $8.09
Employed at Program Entry 799.7668 0.2740 $219.16
In School at Program Entry 440.9543 0.5223 $230.32
Individual with a Disability -521.6471 0.1876 -$97.88
Limited English Proficiency 1073.6773 0.0435 $46.68
Low Income 533.4786 0.8856 $472.44
Homeless -863.2404 0.0195 -$16.79
Individual who was Incarcerated 696.2349 0.0641 $44.61
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -1234.6504 0.1322 -$163.16
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 117.0360 0.7838 $91.73
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0982 1910.9800 $187.64
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1025.3730 0.1916 $196.51
UI Claimant 155.9486 0.0177 $2.77
Received Other Public Assistance -1003.2410 0.0040 -$4.02
SSI or SSDI Recipient -3130.0431 0.0120 -$37.60
TANF Recipient 489.7984 0.0006 $0.28
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -374.7889 0.2489 -$93.27
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 1659.7276 0.9720 $1,613.20
Natural Resources Employment -759.5897 0.0071 -$5.42
Economic Conditions
Construction Employment 28178.9291 0.0484 $1,364.24
Manufacturing Employment -1764.5246 0.1735 -$306.21
Information Services Employment -8732.1640 0.0113 -$98.83
Financial Services Employment 3907.1897 0.0455 $177.66
Professional and Business Services Employment 17051.3461 0.1128 $1,923.44
Educational or Health Care Employment -9956.6166 0.2301 -$2,290.79
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7512.8883 0.0968 $727.54
Other Services Employment -44886.9931 0.0284 -$1,273.31
Public Administration 81354.7846 0.0436 $3,545.32
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -1479.6748 0.0557 -$82.43
-1315.2928 0.0206 -$27.09

Employment Rate 4th Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 79.1% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -0.574) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.365).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0655 0.5500 3.60%
Age 14 to 15 0.1384 0.0029 0.04%
Age 16 to 17 0.1281 0.3939 5.05%
Age 18 to 19 0.0397 0.2792 1.11%
Age 20 to 21 0.0368 0.1461 0.54%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0051 0.1189 -0.06%
Race: Asian 0.0982 0.0100 0.10%
Race: Black -0.0706 0.2775 -1.96%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.2089 0.0038 0.08%
Race: American Indian 0.0815 0.0109 0.09%
Race: Multiple 0.0729 0.0197 0.14%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.1498 0.2813 4.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.1839 0.0213 0.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.3500 0.0013 -0.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree -0.3815 0.0080 -0.30%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0936 0.2834 2.65%
In School at Program Entry 0.0491 0.3989 1.96%
Individual with a Disability -0.1337 0.1720 -2.30%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1772 0.0297 -0.53%
Low Income 0.0075 0.8606 0.64%
Homeless -0.0737 0.0213 -0.16%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.1088 0.0841 -0.92%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 0.0318 0.1729 0.55%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0141 0.7375 1.04%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0202 0.2022 0.41%
UI Claimant -0.0696 0.0121 -0.08%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1638 0.0050 -0.08%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0071 0.0180 0.01%
TANF Recipient -0.0015 0.0046 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -0.0439 0.2821 -1.24%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.4315 0.9686 41.80%
Natural Resources Employment 3.9395 0.0071 2.81%
Economic Conditions
Construction Employment 2.0775 0.0484 10.06%
Manufacturing Employment -2.4243 0.1735 -42.07%
Information Services Employment -14.1770 0.0113 -16.04%
Financial Services Employment -4.9069 0.0455 -22.31%
Professional and Business Services Employment -4.5171 0.1128 -50.95%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.4947 0.2301 -34.39%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.8863 0.0968 18.27%
Other Services Employment -1.9158 0.0284 -5.43%
Public Administration 6.7351 0.0436 29.35%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -0.6027 0.0557 -3.36%
-0.0545 0.0151 -0.08%

Credential Attainment

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 65.3% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.153) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.499).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0709 0.5649 4.01%
Age 14 to 15 -0.3258 0.0039 -0.13%
Age 16 to 17 0.0417 0.4981 2.08%
Age 18 to 19 0.0145 0.2579 0.37%
Age 20 to 21 -0.1726 0.1126 -1.94%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1349 0.1292 1.74%
Race: Asian -0.0279 0.0105 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0331 0.2650 0.88%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.2110 0.0044 0.09%
Race: American Indian 0.1455 0.0116 0.17%
Race: Multiple -0.0707 0.0221 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.1460 0.1474 2.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.4422 0.0110 0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.4358 0.0011 -0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree -1.3562 0.0028 -0.37%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0046 0.2998 0.14%
In School at Program Entry 0.0462 0.5257 2.43%
Individual with a Disability 0.0649 0.1552 1.01%
Limited English Proficiency 0.1004 0.0359 0.36%
Low Income 0.0086 0.8625 0.75%
Homeless 0.2340 0.0171 0.40%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.1059 0.0464 -0.49%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 0.0524 0.1436 0.75%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -0.0328 0.7863 -2.58%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0306 0.2015 -0.62%
UI Claimant -0.0517 0.0044 -0.02%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.2400 0.0039 -0.09%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.2258 0.0149 0.34%
TANF Recipient -0.4006 0.0033 -0.13%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0361 0.2557 0.92%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 1.2644 0.9961 125.95%
Natural Resources Employment -8.9910 0.0071 -6.41%
Economic Conditions
Construction Employment 6.9224 0.0484 33.51%
Manufacturing Employment 0.8878 0.1735 15.41%
Information Services Employment -18.3983 0.0113 -20.82%
Financial Services Employment -5.9209 0.0455 -26.92%
Professional and Business Services Employment 2.4477 0.1128 27.61%
Educational or Health Care Employment -0.6806 0.2301 -15.66%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.6282 0.0968 15.77%
Other Services Employment -13.8747 0.0284 -39.36%
Public Administration -0.7137 0.0436 -3.11%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -0.5164 0.0557 -2.88%
-0.2505 0.0116 -0.29%

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 68.3% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -3.8) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (4.483).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0665 0.5141 3.42%
Age 14 to 15 0.0137 0.0056 0.01%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1414 0.5512 -7.79%
Age 18 to 19 0.0327 0.2211 0.72%
Age 20 to 21 0.0308 0.0997 0.31%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0803 0.1650 -1.33%
Race: Asian 0.0655 0.0209 0.14%
Race: Black 0.1033 0.2100 2.17%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.0096 0.0042 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0938 0.0153 -0.14%
Race: Multiple -0.2113 0.0389 -0.82%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0011 0.1437 0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2024 0.0074 -0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1934 0.0005 -0.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree -0.3419 0.0019 -0.06%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1437 0.2898 4.16%
In School at Program Entry 0.1183 0.5665 6.70%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0157 0.1136 -0.18%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -0.0104 0.8299 -0.86%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.2502 0.2262 5.66%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.4005 0.0009 0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0828 0.0158 0.13%
TANF Recipient -0.3933 0.0019 -0.07%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -0.1404 0.1553 -2.18%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 254.0000 -5.85%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0504 0.1201 -0.61%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment -5.7975 0.0071 -4.14%
Construction Employment -7.7597 0.0484 -37.57%
Manufacturing Employment -11.0363 0.1735 -191.52%
Information Services Employment 6.1666 0.0113 6.98%
Financial Services Employment 20.0777 0.0455 91.29%
Professional and Business Services Employment -4.3185 0.1128 -48.71%
Educational or Health Care Employment -7.2531 0.2301 -166.88%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -1.4575 0.0968 -14.11%
Other Services Employment -17.0803 0.0284 -48.45%
Public Administration 7.6523 0.0436 33.35%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -0.6568 0.0557 -3.66%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 78.7% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.643) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.43).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female 0.0124 0.4891 0.60%
Age 25 to 44 -0.5470 0.4559 -24.94%
Age 45 to 54 -0.8325 0.1916 -15.95%
Age 55 to 59 -0.7383 0.0932 -6.88%
Age 60 or more -0.8328 0.1178 -9.81%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0665 0.0288 0.19%
Race: Asian -0.1742 0.0214 -0.37%
Race: Black -0.0446 0.1390 -0.62%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.7268 0.0014 -0.10%
Race: American Indian -0.3898 0.0045 -0.18%
Race: Multiple 0.0940 0.0006 0.01%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0773 0.0780 0.60%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.1565 0.0291 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.5158 0.0052 -0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.5255 0.0135 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1239 0.0208 -0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 0.0898 0.0061 0.05%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1584 0.1128 1.79%
In School at Program Entry -0.0684 0.0086 -0.06%
Individual with a Disability -0.0777 0.0191 -0.15%
Veteran 0.2295 0.0380 0.87%
Limited English Proficiency 0.0267 0.0005 0.00%
Single Parent 0.0668 0.0062 0.04%
Low Income -0.0154 0.0250 -0.04%
Homeless -0.4362 0.0034 -0.15%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.0898 0.0065 -0.06%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1320 0.0001 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.5529 0.9707 53.67%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.1931 0.0070 0.14%
UI Claimant -0.0302 0.9073 -2.74%
UI Exhaustee -0.1370 0.0015 -0.02%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2710 0.0001 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4098 0.0011 -0.04%
TANF Recipient -0.6409 0.0001 -0.01%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.0015 0.1261 0.02%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 0.6130 0.0071 0.44%
Construction Employment 0.7966 0.0484 3.86%
Manufacturing Employment -2.7324 0.1735 -47.42%
Information Services Employment -3.2160 0.0113 -3.64%
Financial Services Employment -3.3592 0.0455 -15.27%
Professional and Business Services Employment -4.9406 0.1128 -55.73%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.2619 0.2301 -29.03%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -1.3279 0.0968 -12.86%
Other Services Employment 6.9083 0.0284 19.60%
Public Administration -2.8018 0.0436 -12.21%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -1.2726 0.0557 -7.09%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of $7,598 for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2693) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (10290).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -1636.8148 0.4838 -$791.84
Age 25 to 44 -3854.1133 0.4624 -$1,782.09
Age 45 to 54 -7244.8966 0.1950 -$1,412.74
Age 55 to 59 -5507.8190 0.0924 -$509.01
Age 60 or more -3958.4214 0.1018 -$403.03
Hispanic Ethnicity -62.3131 0.0298 -$1.86
Race: Asian -785.4883 0.0215 -$16.91
Race: Black -3867.2796 0.1307 -$505.28
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 7376.0163 0.0014 $10.43
Race: American Indian 670.3053 0.0045 $3.01
Race: Multiple 1050.7223 0.0005 $0.57
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 112.2974 0.0662 $7.43
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 2206.4084 0.0247 $54.41
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1551.2164 0.0045 -$7.04
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -3124.4249 0.0117 -$36.54
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 614.0884 0.0177 $10.89
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 484.1251 0.0048 $2.34
Employed at Program Entry -233.0788 0.1211 -$28.22
In School at Program Entry 586.1154 0.0081 $4.76
Individual with a Disability 3751.1377 0.0160 $59.87
Veteran 740.1798 0.0357 $26.41
Limited English Proficiency 749.2329 0.0005 $0.36
Single Parent -516.2163 0.0055 -$2.82
Low Income -63.8546 0.0211 -$1.35
Homeless -5669.2612 0.0025 -$13.92
Individual who was Incarcerated 979.1098 0.0051 $5.04
Displaced Homemaker -12916.4879 0.0001 -$1.73
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 3544.2326 0.9814 $3,478.28
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.5262 8923.3799 $4,695.33
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 780.3843 0.0056 $4.35
UI Claimant -69.9188 0.9093 -$63.58
UI Exhaustee -298.2126 0.0013 -$0.39
Received Other Public Assistance 8055.2633 0.0001 $0.84
SSI or SSDI Recipient -8924.3002 0.0007 -$5.82
TANF Recipient -3981.8829 0.0001 -$0.25
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 210.8105 0.1040 $21.93
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment 22029.8304 0.0071 $157.14
Construction Employment 7385.6117 0.0484 $357.56
Manufacturing Employment 1606.7801 0.1735 $278.84
Information Services Employment 6742.4515 0.0113 $76.31
Financial Services Employment -13708.0183 0.0455 -$623.30
Professional and Business Services Employment 28313.0178 0.1128 $3,193.78
Educational or Health Care Employment -26515.1069 0.2301 -$6,100.52
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -12415.1128 0.0968 -$1,202.27
Other Services Employment -24115.2902 0.0284 -$684.08
Public Administration -17204.2843 0.0436 -$749.74
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -3559.8774 0.0557 -$198.31

Employment Rate 4th Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2022 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2022 prediction of 69.9% for Indiana for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.911) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.61).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2022.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2022 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristics
Female -0.0157 0.4567 -0.72%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0909 0.4195 -3.81%
Age 45 to 54 -0.3960 0.2304 -9.13%
Age 55 to 59 0.3041 0.1162 3.53%
Age 60 or more -0.3948 0.1202 -4.75%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.4008 0.0389 1.56%
Race: Asian 0.0748 0.0074 0.06%
Race: Black 0.0324 0.1783 0.58%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -1.1783 0.0015 -0.18%
Race: American Indian -0.5803 0.0065 -0.38%
Race: Multiple 0.2661 0.0033 0.09%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0143 0.4517 0.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.1643 0.1600 2.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2044 0.0306 -0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.0465 0.0760 0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -1.2298 0.1167 -14.35%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2.0883 0.0360 7.53%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1044 0.1398 1.46%
In School at Program Entry -0.0321 0.0447 -0.14%
Individual with a Disability 0.0620 0.0365 0.23%
Veteran 0.1098 0.0699 0.77%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2558 0.0026 -0.07%
Single Parent 0.2823 0.0433 1.22%
Low Income -0.2150 0.1549 -3.33%
Homeless -0.1989 0.0177 -0.35%
Individual who was Incarcerated -0.1143 0.0451 -0.52%
Displaced Homemaker -1.1171 0.0011 -0.12%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0660 0.8858 5.85%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0159 0.0468 0.07%
UI Claimant 0.0179 0.6850 1.23%
UI Exhaustee -0.1143 0.0056 -0.06%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.4390 0.0008 0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.1513 0.0067 0.10%
TANF Recipient 1.4802 0.0008 0.11%
Percent with More than 1 Day in Program 0.0329 0.7831 2.58%
Economic Conditions
Natural Resources Employment -1.7206 0.0071 -1.23%
Construction Employment 2.4273 0.0484 11.75%
Manufacturing Employment -2.8513 0.1735 -49.48%
Information Services Employment -1.2264 0.0113 -1.39%
Financial Services Employment -4.3524 0.0455 -19.79%
Professional and Business Services Employment -6.1980 0.1128 -69.91%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.7392 0.2301 -40.01%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.4973 0.0968 -4.82%
Other Services Employment 2.2873 0.0284 6.49%
Public Administration -1.3646 0.0436 -5.95%
Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) -1.5973 0.0557 -8.90%

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult and Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name ERQ2 ERQ4 MEQ2 CRED MSG ERQ2 ERQ4 MEQ2 CRED MSG ERQ2 ERQ4 MEQ2
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x x x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x x x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x x x x
daysinprog_over1 Percent with More than 1 Day in Program x x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) x x x x x x x x x x x x x