Attachment VI.pdf

ETA Advisory File Text

Attachment VI VI-1 Functional Example of Revised Approach for Using the Statistical Adjustment Model In implementing the revised approach for using the statistical adjustment model the Departments will use the most current data available to derive adjusted levels of performance for all six core programs thereby furthering a consistent application of the common framework. The example below demonstrates how and when the Departments will add more current data to the statistical adjustment model to produce more accurate results. After the first program year the Departments will add an additional year of data to the statistical adjustment model. After the second program year the Departments will add a second additional year of data. This example reflects a hypothetical economic upturn that occurred after RSA and a state VR program established negotiated levels of performance before the program years began. Before PYs 2024 and 2025 begin In its State Plan a state VR program submits expected levels of performance of 46.0 for PY 2024 and 47.0 for PY 2025 for the measurable skill gains indicator. The statistical adjustment model produces a pre-program year estimate of 45.0 for PYs 2024 and 2025. This estimate is based on data from PYs 2018 2019 2020 2021 and 2022. Because the negotiations take place during PY 2023 economic conditions and participant data for PY 2023 are not yet available. PY 2022 data are the most recent data available at that time. Using the pre-program year estimate and other negotiation factors RSA and the state VR program agree to negotiated levels of performance of 47.0 for PY 2024 and 48.0 for PY 2025. After PY 2024 ends The state VR program reports an actual level of performance of 52.0 for PY 2024. RSA produces Estimate0 of 50.0 that includes PY 2023 data in addition to data available at the time of negotiations which at the time of the assessment are the most recent data available to the Departments. Using PY 2023 data the statistical adjustment model produces an Estimate1 of 52.0 for PY 2024. This estimate is based on the actual participant characteristics and actual economic conditions in PY 2024. RSA calculates an adjustment factor of 2.0 52.0 - 50.0 . RSA adds 2.0 to the negotiated level of performance of 47.0 to produce an adjusted level of performance of 49.0 . RSA divides the actual level of performance of 52.0 by the adjusted level of performance of 49.0 to produce an individual indicator score of 106.0 which means the state VR program passed this performance indicator for PY 2024 pursuant to 34 CFR 361.190 d 1 and 2 since the individual indicator score was greater than 50 percent. Attachment VI VI -2 During PY 2025 The state experiences improved economic conditions. After PY 2025 ends The state VR program reports an actual level of performance of 52.0 for PY 2025. The statistical adjustment model produces Estimate0 for PY 2025 of 53.0 using PYs 2023 and 2024 data in addition to data available at the time of negotiations. Of note this is another PY s worth of data being added to the statistical adjustment model to ensure it incorporates the most recent economic conditions and participant data available to the Departments at the time the calculations are being done. Using PYs 2023 and 2024 the statistical adjustment model produces an Estimate1 of 59.0 for PY 2025. This estimate is based on the actual participant characteristics and actual economic conditions in PY 2025. RSA calculates an adjustment factor of 6.0 59.0 - 53.0 . RSA adds 6.0 to the negotiated level of performance of 48.0 to produce an adjusted level of performance of 54.0 . RSA divides the actual level of performance of 52.0 by the adjusted level of performance of 54.0 to produce an individual indicator score of 96.0 which means the state VR program passed this performance indicator for PY 2025 pursuant to 34 CFR 361.190 d 1 and 2 since the individual indicator score was greater than 50 percent.