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america's dynamic workforce: 2008 |
Executive Summary
America’s Dynamic Workforce: 2008 presents an overview of current conditions and notable trends affecting the American labor market and economic activity. Primary emphasis is on measures of labor market performance – employment, labor force participation, unemployment, and compensation. General measures of economic performance such as gross domestic product (GDP) and productivity growth are also described as they relate to labor market conditions and trends.
Throughout this report the focus is on the data—what the numbers actually say about the American labor market—and on how individual data items fit together to present an overall portrait of the health and dynamism of the labor market. Data are current through July 31, 2008.
The report shows that the American labor market is strong and resilient. Labor market indicators describe an economy that has been creating jobs, expanding output, and rewarding work with good compensation. Although 2008 saw the end of a record 52 consecutive months of job gains (September 2003 though December 2007), this change in trends reflects multiple short-term challenges facing our economy. The prospects for long-term growth remain very bright.
The report also recognizes that, even as our economy grows in the future, there will be important challenges. The United States and the world are experiencing a major economic transformation. Technology has accelerated the pace of change, and the United States is transitioning to a knowledge-based economy.
The American economy creates good jobs. The majority of employment growth over the past seven years was in occupations with above-average compensation (wages plus benefits). This trend is likely to continue in the future, and most new jobs projected for the future are expected to be filled by persons with some kind of post-secondary education. Education to gain the knowledge and skills that are in demand is the key to success in America’s dynamic labor market.
Workers who bring to the labor market the knowledge and skills that today’s competitive economy demands are finding good jobs and rising compensation.
There are six chapters:
- Chapter 1 summarizes the current levels and trends of payroll jobs, total
employment, job openings, turnover, unemployment, and GDP. With the cyclical
slowing of economic growth, unemployment rose to 5.5 percent in the first half
of 2008, while payroll employment has declined. Nonetheless, the labor market
remains dynamic with millions of job hires and separations taking place each
month, and millions of unfilled job openings. And the unemployment rate
remained below the average of the 1990s.
- Chapter 2 presents an overview of recent trends in labor productivity and
worker compensation. Over the last two decades, the capital-labor ratio has
risen as has workers’ educational attainment, thus helping American workers
become even more productive. Rising productivity gains have largely translated
into higher real compensation. Today’s workers earn the fruits of their labor
in different forms, as benefits are both significant and increasingly diverse.
- Chapter 3 provides a global context for understanding the U.S. labor
market and compares the United States and other countries along common
dimensions of labor market indicators. The successful record of the United
States across a broad range of indicators and over an extended time period is
remarkable for a mature industrial economy. The fact that the United States has
achieved these results in the face of growing worldwide competition and other
challenges, both natural and man-made, is a further testament to the robustness
and resilience of an economic system based on free and open markets.
- Chapter 4 examines the educational attainment of the labor force,
including trends and comparisons of employment, earnings, and unemployment
relative to educational attainment. Over three-fifths of the labor force age 25
to 64 has completed at least some post-secondary education. These workers
comprise a valuable national asset of knowledge, skill, and experience. The 21st
century labor market seeks and rewards workers who can offer the educational
foundation, technical skills, and creative flexibility that employers need to
compete and to adapt to changing needs successfully.
- Chapter 5 highlights two trends that will significantly affect the shape
of the labor force through the first half of the 21st century: an aging
population and increasing racial and ethnic diversity. The aging of the
population will lead to an aging of the labor force and slower labor force
growth. Workers in the future will have to support a relatively greater
dependent population as the baby boomer generation enters retirement. The labor
force is projected to number 195 million persons in 2050, up from 153 million in
2007, with racial and ethnic minorities comprising an increasing share of the
labor force.
- Chapter 6 examines the job opportunities that will arise by 2016 and what will be required of the American workforce to fill those jobs. The aging population, the continued shift of employment to the service-providing industries, globalization, and the move toward increasingly sophisticated production techniques are key drivers of future job opportunities. More than ever, a solid educational foundation, involving schooling or training beyond high school, will be the key to accessing many of these jobs.
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