XXI - Century XXI:
It's Not Your Parents' Workforce

It's no secret — today’s workplace is not the one your parents knew — and the future will bring even more significant changes. Employment Outlook, 2000-2010, as recently published by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) makes this clear. When projecting what will happen in the next 10 years, BLS looked at the job scene in the coming decade in two ways: percentage growth and numerical growth. Total employment is projected to increase by 22 million (to 167.8 million) jobs or 15.2 percent — slightly less than the 17 percent growth during the 1990s.

Most new jobs will arise in occupations requiring only work-related training (on-the-job training or work experience), even though these occupations are projected to grow more slowly. This reflects the fact that these occupations accounted for about 7 out of 10 jobs in 2000.

Of course, not all job openings depend on the amount of growth in an occupation. Some job openings result from the need to replace workers who enter other occupations or retire or leave the labor force permanently for other reasons. In many instances, the number of job openings resulting from replacement needs is greater than that of openings resulting from employment growth. Even occupations projected to decline provide some job openings.

The projections of employment for the first decade of the 21st century were completed before the tragic events of September 11, 2001, so the nature and severity of longer-term impacts remains unclear at this time.

Did you know?Among married-couple families where both the wife and the husband work, about one-fifth of the wives earn more than their husbands.

Fastest Growing Occupations
Source: Bureau of
Labor Stastics

The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings data are presented in the following categories: $$$$ = very high ($39,700 and over), $$$ = high ($25,760 to $39,660), $$ = low ($18,500 to $25,760), and $ = very low (up to $18,490). The rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers.

What is the best job? The answer here is, as always, problematical and a matter of personal inclination. The importance of factors such as the opportunity to help people, to express creativity, or to be physically mobile on the job varies from one person to another. Careers are built from a balanced blend of interest, aptitude, skill, and training.

But job projections are important, too, in terms of opportunity. With that in mind, Employment Outlook 2000-2010 focuses on occupations expected to have the largest number of new jobs and/or the fastest rate of growth. Because most people also consider earnings potential as an important job characteristic, BLS includes rankings for hourly earnings based on quartiles, using one-fourth of total employment to define each quartile. These are presented in four categories identified by dollar signs, with $ indicating the range for the lowest quartile and $$$$ the range for the highest.

Which jobs are growing the fastest? (see graph) The seven fastest growing occupations are computer-related. All of them have high or very high earnings. Most of the other projected fastest growing jobs among the top 30 are healthcare related. The remainder are special education teachers (preschool, kindergarten and elementary school), fitness trainers and aerobics instructors, and social and human service assistants. Of the 30 fastest growing occupations, 21 generally require a postsecondary degree or other credential, compared with 11 of those with the largest numerical job growth and two of those with the largest numerical declines.

Occupations Gaining the Most Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Stastics

The increasing demand for computer-related occupations reflects the rapid advances in computer technology and the continuing development of new computer applications, including the Internet. Overall, the demand for computer specialists is projected to grow 68.6 percent, and that for computer and information systems managers anticipates growth of 47.9 percent through 2010.

Where are most of the new jobs? (see graph) Occupations expected to have the most new jobs are diverse. There will be opportunities in occupations with a variety of job settings, training and education requirements, and earnings from very low to very high. These 30 occupations are from a much broader range of occupational groups than are the 30 fastest growing, and more than half are in the bottom half of the wage scale. Twenty on the list had employment of at least 1 million in 2000. Of the 10 that had employment of less than a mil-lion, all (except accountants and landscaping and groundskeeping workers) have projected growth at least three times as fast as the 15.2 percent average for all occupations. Five are computer-related occupations. The largest is computer support specialists, with year 2000 employment of 505,000.

Six occupations here, all with employment of 1.5 million or more, are projected to grow more slowly than 15.2 percent.

Registered nurses and nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants — by far the two largest health-related occupations in 2000 — are projected to have more numerical growth than any other health-related occupations. Home health aides, medical assistants and personal and home care aides — all among the 30 fastest growing — are also on this list.

Postsecondary teachers, teacher assistants, elementary school teachers (except special education), and secondary school teachers (except special and vocational education) are all projected to have large numbers of job openings. Elementary school teachers (except special education) is the only category with below average employment growth.

The two food service occupations — combined food preparation and service workers, including fast food and waiters and waitresses — have large employment numbers and faster than average growth rates. General and operations managers should grow at about the same rate as the total for all occupations, while security guards are projected to grow 35.2 percent — making it the fastest growing occupation of the 30 on this list that is not computer- or health-related.

Where The Jobs Aren’t (see graph) And what occupations are projected to decline? Occupational employment declines usually are caused by technology (thus reducing the need for labor), or a transfer of duties to different occupations. The occupations expected to have the largest declines include farmers and ranchers and administrative support occupations. Although declining employment often results in unfavorable prospects or limited opportunity, some openings may occur if the number of people leaving these occupations is greater than the overall decline in jobs.

The use of computer technology is expected to reduce demand for word processors and typists, tellers, loan interviewers and clerks, secretaries (except legal, medical and executive), switchboard operators (including answering services), and other office and administrative support occupations. Farmers and ranchers, dishwashers, railroad brake, signal and switch operators, and utility meter readers will also decline as a result of improved technology, while farmers and ranchers face the additional challenge of industry consolidation.

Back to the Future Preparing for tomorrow’s workplace involves more than knowing what to expect. Acting on that knowledge — obtaining the education, skills, training and occupational information for career planning — will be even more critical to success in the workforce of the future than it has been in the past. Among the resources available to meet this challenge is the just-published 2002-03 Occupational Outlook Handbook, which contains detailed information on hundreds of occupations, covering nearly 90 percent of the jobs in the economy. It is available online at www.bls.gov/oco. The Occupational Outlook Quarterly also is available online at www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm. For other employment, occupational, and related information from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, visit www.bls.gov

Occupations Losing the
Most Jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Stastics

Did you know?

The baby-boom generation was born from 1946 to 1964, so the oldest baby boomers turn 56 this year.

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